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Next Prime Minister Odds

A look at the Next Prime Minister Odds

Last Updated on 07/05/2024
Fact checked by: James Leeland

Well, Liz Truss didn't last long! So we're going to bring you the excitement of the next Prime Minister odds exclusively here at Betting.co.uk.

Whatever your views on the matter, it’s most certainly an exciting time in British politics that you simply can’t take your eyes off of. The bookies’ odds for the next PM are already out, and with no clear frontrunner yet, there’s some decent value to be found if you manage to call it right.

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Odds on next Prime Minister - What’s happened so far

Boris Johnson's exit at number 10 brought in Liz Truss who has been a complete disaster. Her handling of the mini-budget was laughable and she has managed to make enemies of most of her party. With billions wiped of the pound and endless U-turns, it's no surprise that she was booted out of office in record-time.

This opens up the job of PM to a bunch of Tory MPs who you'll be familiar with, but there are growing calls for a general election. Given that the Conservatives are plummeting in the polls, it could be a Labour victory and this has made the betting on the next UK PM much more interesting. Keep reading to find out more!

Next UK Prime Minister odds - The current frontrunners

At the moment, there is still plenty to play for in the race to be the next UK Prime Minister. We can expect Rishi Sunak gradually raising his profile and he's currently at odds of 7/4 to be the next PM. Following him, we have the familiar face of Penny Mordaunt at odds of 9/2 .

To be honest, much of this is similar to the picture of the next Tory leader betting, but could a Labour leader be the next PM? Technically, yes, although it still looks unlikely. We'd expect there to be a Tory leadership contest first. In order for the next Prime Minister to come from Labour, a general election would need to be triggered - which is a risk the Conservative Party would be unlikely to take given the recent polling results.

In fact, current Labour leader Keir Starmer is as high as 7/1 with most UK bookies to become the next PM. For comparison, Boris Johnson is now at odds of 10/1 to make the most unlikely return to 10 Downing Street.

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Odds on the next Prime Minister - What happens next

As we said before, the next Prime Minister will probably not be decided by a UK general election. Instead, what we should facing is a Tory leadership election, which is a very different process. It’s also worth noting that a Prime Minister isn’t actually voted for in the UK - voters vote for an MP in their constituency who represents the party that they want to be in government.

The majority of UK voters elected the Conservative Party into government, and the departure of Liz Truss doesn’t change that fact. The fact that we could be facing a Tory leadership election, rather than a general election, means that the next Prime Minister odds and the next Tory leader odds can change quite drastically in the build-up.

How the Tory leadership election works and affects the odds on the next Prime Minister

The first step of the Conservative Party leadership election process requires MPs who wish to run to throw their hat into the ring. They then need to try and garner support from other Conservative MPs in parliament. According to the current rules, a Tory party leadership candidate is required to get the support of a minimum of eight other MPs in order to stand in the election.

If more than two potential candidates get the backing of eight or more MPs, a series of votes then take place until they have whittled it down to two candidates. This is what can elongate the process, especially as high-ranking MPs have in the past been known to put their name forward as potential candidates just to boost their profile, with no real intention of running.

Once the final two candidates have been decided, there is then a ballot among the party members in order to decide the new leader. This ballot is conducted among all party members and not MPs, meaning that the general public can get involved to some extent. Naturally, the next Prime Minister odds will become clearer at this stage.

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Odds next Prime Minister - Is it easy to predict

Predicting who the next Prime Minister will be can be easy or hard, and depends on a number of factors. For example, picking the next Prime Minister when a leadership contest is forthcoming is different from predicting a general election. Effectively though, it’s always going to be easier to predict the closer to the election you are, but the odds will also be a lot shorter for the favourite.

Predicting PM odds with leadership contests

With a leadership contest, making a call just after the Prime Minister has left their post is almost impossible. As there are usually multiple candidates at this stage, the odds will be long and even the bookies won’t really be able to give you an indicator of who might win.

Once you get to the stage of the actual ballot though, there are only two candidates to choose from, so making your prediction is fairly easy. This is especially true for Tory leadership contests, as they haven’t served up many surprises in recent decades. By the time the vote comes close, it’s basically already known who will win.

For example, in the last Tory leadership election, Liz Truss beat Rishi Sunak with a clear majority. Labour leadership elections have tended to serve up more close calls and surprises. For example, in the 2010 Labour Party leadership election, Ed Miliband only narrowly edged out his brother, David Miliband, with 50.7% of the vote.

Jeremy Corbyn’s election in 2015, ultimately came as a surprise to many; however, his victory was easy to see coming due to the influx of party memberships. The bookies foresaw this and called it right, as Corbyn won with 59.5% of the popular vote.

Predicting next Prime Minister odds - General election

Historically, calling the winner of a general election has been extremely easy. Election polls used to always be accurate and the winner was generally a foregone conclusion. That has changed with recent general elections though - few polls predicted the hung parliament in the 2017 election, and prior to that, Labour was expected to ride the Conservatives a lot closer than they did in 2015.

As we said earlier, the UK electorate never actually votes for the Prime Minister at any point; they vote for the party. Still, it’s easy to predict the next Prime Minister here as the leader of the party will of course step into the post. Even in elections that have been more closely run, such as the hung parliaments in 2010 and 2017, the odds-on candidate for the next PM has still ultimately taken up the post.

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Betting odds next Prime Minister - What is the best UK bookie

We previously mentioned that most of the polls failed to predict the hung parliament in the 2017 election. The result of this was that Theresa May ultimately required the support of the DUP in order to form a government. While no polls managed to foresee this, the Betfair Exchange did. This was the only bookmaker that gave odds on a hung parliament as the favoured outcome.

While official polls, news and other sources are important, the bookies' odds can tell you a lot when it comes to UK politics. Whether it’s a party leadership election or a general election, it’s always worth taking a look at Betfair’s odds, as they have a good track record of calling things right.

As well as Betfair and Bet365, you can also find odds on the next Prime Minister and UK politics at William Hill and Betfred. These are two highly-rated operators by our experts here at Betting.co.uk, and they have welcome offers that are worth checking out for new account holders.

Next Prime Minister odds - The summary

When it comes to betting on who will be the next UK Prime Minister, timing is key. Bet early on a party leadership contest and you will have a lot of candidates to choose from at long odds. While there is potential value here, picking the right winner can be extremely difficult. Waiting until there are two candidates can make it easy to call, but the odds can end up shortening so much that a winning wager isn’t even worth your while. Still, keep your eyes on the worlds of politics and bookies and you might get lucky. And remember, Betfair and Bet365 are the ones to watch when it comes to UK elections!

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Next Prime Minister odds FAQ 

📍 Where can I find odds for the next UK PM?

You can find and compare the latest odds for the next UK Prime Minister here at Betting.co.uk. By using our comparison tool here at Betting.co.uk, you can see all of the live odds that are being offered by the top UK online bookmakers.

👤 Who is the favourite to be the next Prime Minister?

Odds on the favourite to be the next UK PM can be found here in our comparison tool. Check out the live odds on our site from all UK bookmakers with politics odds today. We update the information regularly and have a guide on predicting a leadership election.

🇬🇧 Who will be the next UK PM?

Want to find out who the UK bookies think will be the next PM? Then follow the link to our site, where you can find odds and place your bets today. Additionally, you can also read about the favourites for the top job and check out our experts’ predictions.

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