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Best Betting Sites UK / Betting on The Next Prime Minister
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Betting on The Next Prime Minister

How and where to bet on the next prime minister

Last Updated on 11/04/2024
Fact checked by: James Leeland

Liz Truss has lost her job and political betting on the next prime minister has moved into overdrive. Keep reading to see who could be the next PM!

With much speculation, the latest betting on the next prime minister is wide open. Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt are expected to throw their hats into the ring. But could Keir Starmer be the next PM? Take a look below and find out what happens next!

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The Pools
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LeoVegas
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10bet
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SportingIndex
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Bet365
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Coral
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UKGC - UK Gambling Commission
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Smarkets
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QuinnBet
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talkSPORT Bet
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UKGC - UK Gambling Commission
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Skybet.com
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The race (and bets) are on for the next PM

It has been a rollercoaster ride for the Conservative Party in the last couple of months. Following the downfall of party-monster Boris Johnson, Liz Truss has managed to be the most shambolic PM this country has ever seen. However, we cannot say that this was unexpected, as she always seemed like a strange choice. Truss has already received her first no confidence vote and got kicked out of office in record-time.

Liz Truss’ disastrous time in office

To be honest, we haven't got enough space to run down all of the calamities that have struck Liz Truss since she arrived at 10 Downing Street. Although she's was only in office for a few weeks, she became perhaps the worst PM in UK history.

Much of this has been focused around the fact that her mini-budget wiped billions of the British pound. Given tax breaks to the wealthiest people in the UK never seemed like a smart move when ordinary people were feeling the squeeze, but it apparently made sense to Truss.

Then there have been multiple U-turns about everything from financial relief from the energy crisis to the triple lock, and above all, Truss has seemed determined to bring the ghost of Thatcherism to UK politics. One thing's for sure and this strategy has not worked.  As such,  Truss was kicked out after the shortest PM tenure in British politics.

A history of mutiny in the Tory Party

The Conservative Party has a history of turning against its leader in the recent past. Most famously would be Margaret Thatcher, who decided to resign after a leadership challenge by Michael Heseltine in 1990. She secured 50% of the vote but failed to achieve 15% clear of Mr Heseltine. After some reflection, Thatcher didn’t contest a second ballot, where John Major was the winner, followed by Heseltine and Hurd. Hurd and Heseltine withdrew from the third ballot, gigging the leadership to Major. Betting on the next prime minister and even betting on the next Tory leader, in that case, would be useless as Major came out the clear winner.

Mr Major himself also faced a vote of no confidence against him in 1995. In June of that year, he famously stated, "back me or sack me", in a challenge towards colleagues in the Conservative Party. He came up against John Redwood, who resigned in July of 1995 as the secretary of state for Wales. Mr Major won the election. However, a third of the party did not vote for him. He retained leadership until 1997, when he lost the general election.

Another Tory leader, Iain Duncan Smith, lost a vote of no confidence in him back in 2003. On 23 October 2003, a vote of no confidence was held, and 55% of the House of Commons decided they did not have confidence in Mr Smith. He then announced his plans to step down and was replaced by Michael Howard about a week later.

Most recently, Theresa May also came up against the ranks of her own party in December 2018. At the time, 63% voted that they had confidence in her, showing she still had significant majority support within the party. Mrs May later resigned due to difficulties getting the Brexit deal done. We all know what happened to Boris Johnson, and it looks like a similar fate happened to Liz Truss.

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What happens now?

With the exit of Liz Truss, the next prime minister betting has officially started. What happens in the interim? If we look again to look back to the past, we can get a clearer understanding of how things might play out now. Previously, Theresa May and David Cameron resigned from their positions as prime ministers but stayed in the position until a new party leader was chosen. The betting on the next prime minister could continue for up to three months, but the party will select a leader sooner. Choosing a new leader generally takes about six weeks, but betting on the next prime minister is already underway!

How are Tory leaders elected?

Let’s dive into the actual process. First of all, a new leader must be elected within the party. The party’s rules state that if you want to stand as a candidate for the new Tory leader, you need to garner the support of eight conservative MPs. This means that candidates have to be declared before a series of voting will start in the House of Commons. You can place bets at Bet365 on who you think will be the next prime minister at this stage.

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After the first round of voting, a candidate has to get at least 5% of all votes to qualify for the next round. Then, a second vote is held with these remaining candidates. In the second vote, they need 10% of the total vote to stay in the running. In subsequent rounds of voting, the candidate with the least amount of votes will fall out of the race. During this time, betting on the next prime minister will be a hot topic. Between the different votes, it would be a good idea to look at Conservative Home polls to get an idea of how a specific candidate is fairing within the party. Betfair has also shown itself to be an accurate predictor of candidates, and when you're betting on the next prime minister, it will be beneficial to keep an eye on these.

The final step of the process is when two conservative party MPs are left as candidates. A final vote will be held where all conservative party members across the UK will vote, not just the MPs. At this stage, betting on the next prime minister will take a back seat as most will already know the outcome of the final vote, even before it has started. The winner will be declared the new Tory party leader and the next prime minister.

If you look at Tory leadership elections in the past, there are usually no upsets within the party. By the third or fourth round, it will become quite clear who is the favourite candidate, and they will usually win the final vote. If we look at the 2019 Conservative party elections, it was clear early on that Boris Johnson enjoyed support from most of the Tory MPs, which translated into him being elected leader and the next prime minister. Betting on the prime minister is more exciting early before the voting starts. Remember that the next prime minister is selected from within the Tory party itself and that there is no general election to elect a new prime minister. It is crucial to remember this when you make your bets at Betfair.

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Who will win the battle to be the next PM?

Lots of Tory politicians are already making their presence felt behind the scenes. It's no surprise to see that lots of bookies have Rishi Sunak as the favourite to be the next PM and the politician is currently at odds of 7/4.

Behind him we have Penny Mordaunt on odds of 9/2. It's widely expected to be a Tory leadership contest that produces the next PM, and some bookies even have Boris Johnson down at odds of 12/1 to make a remarkable comeback.

But what about Labour? Well, it would be suicidal for the Tory party to hold a general election now. However, most bookies have odds of 10/1 for Keir Starmer to be the next PM, so anything could happen!

The world is watching

Once the candidates have been established, betting will heat up, with MPs battling it out for the top spot. As we’ve seen in the past, Tory leaders will stand out quite early in the process, so keep that in mind. There is a whole process that must follow before a new PM is chosen, and at this time, there is quite an uncertainty about who will take over from Liz Truss. Keep an eye on Betfair and Conservative Home polling to get ahead of the curb. The nation and the world are watching as this drama unfolds to see who the next leader of the UK will be. The only thing left for you to do is head to one of the best high-limit betting sites in the UK to place your wager on your selection.

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Betting next prime minister FAQ 

💁Why did Liz Truss announce her resignation as prime minister?

Several factors contribute to why Liz Truss resigned. We discuss some of these factors in our detailed article.

❓Who will be the next prime minister?

A few candidates have already made themselves known within the ranks of the Tory leadership. We look at some of these candidates in the article and discuss them in some detail./faq-item]

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