So we can now say bye-bye to Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister and the leader of the Conservative Party, but who is likely to be the next one in the hot seat? Regarding politics betting, the next Tory leader is the hottest topic in town.
We’ll look at the odds on the most popular candidates in this article. We’ll also run you through the Tory Party leadership election process and provide you with our full betting guide. Keep reading to find out more!
Following the exit of Boris Johnson, it was hoped that Liz Truss would stabilise the Tory party. That hasn't happened. Instead, she managed to deliver one of the worst mini-budgets of all-time, wiped billions off the pound and made the UK the laughing stock of global politics.
As such, Truss was kicked out of her job in record-time. Rishi Sunak was then voted in as the leader of the Tory Party, but his first General Election saw him lose by a majority and he has since opted to walk away. All of which means that bets are now open for who will be the next Tory leader!
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So What Happens Next? Odds For
Next Tory Leader Betting
Bookies are now having a lot of fun coming up with the odds for the next Tory leader. Here's how it's looking:
Kemi Badenoch
- Badenoch served as Secretary of State For Business And Trade under Rishi Sunak and she is the favourite to take over at 7/5.
Robert Jenrick
- Robert Jenrick has served as a Member of Parliament in Newark since 2014 and before the General Election defeat he was Minister of State For Immigration. He is available at 3/1.
Tom Tugendhat - The former Minister For Security has been in Parliament since 2015 and is no stranger to making tough decisions. He is third favourite at 5/1.
Penny Mordaunt
- Sorry did we scare you. Mordaunt almost became Tory leader and Prime Minister last time around, but she is not that much in favour anymore. She is a long shot at 66/1.
Betting Next Tory Leader
- How The Election Process Works
When a Conservative party leadership election is triggered the first stage requires MPs who wish to run to declare their candidacy. What they then need to do is garner support from their fellow MPs. In the past candidates have needed the support of at least eight MPs in order to enter the first round of voting, however, 1922 can decide on different rules for the early rounds of voting. For example, they could reduce or increase the number of required supports depending on the number of other people running.
The First Round Of Voting
Once the candidates have all been declared and received the required number of supporters, a series of votes begins amongst Tory MPs. The candidate who receives the least amount of votes is then eliminated at each stage. This continues until there are just two candidates left. At this stage, betting on the
next Tory leader odds
is naturally a bit more difficult, but you will find longer odds. Therefore, if you have some foresight and manage to pick the winning candidate, you can find some good value, as more candidates mean longer odds, even for the favourites.
The Head-To-Head
Once there are just two candidates left, the final vote then takes place between them. While the early voting rounds are conducted among MPs only, the final round is voted for by the entire Tory party membership. Naturally, the favourite will generally be quite clear at this point, making it easy to pick the winner, but the odds will be extremely short.
Who Is Allowed To Vote In A Tory Party Leadership Election?
In the early rounds of the process, only Tory MPs are allowed to vote as the candidates are whittled down one by one. For the final round, when there are only two candidates left, the entire membership of the conservative party can cast their vote. There are around 200,000 members of the Conservatives. Members of the general public can join the party online via the website by paying an annual membership fee.
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Betting For Next Tory Leader
- Past Elections
Tory party leadership elections of the past haven’t traditionally served up many upsets, with the early favourite usually winning. By the time the member’s vote has been reached, the result is generally a foregone conclusion. In 2016, Theresa May won the first two ballots convincingly and was then unopposed in the membership vote after Andrea Leadsom withdrew. In the 2019 leadership election, Boris Johnson won with a convincing 66.4% of the membership vote.
In order to have a decent chance of winning a bet on the next Tory leadership election, making the right call earlier in the process is key. This, of course, sounds simple in theory but is much trickier in practice. Politics isn’t as stable as it once was, so nothing can be ruled out.
Betting Next Tory Leader
- How To Pick The Winner
As we said above, the best way to get decent odds when betting on the next Tory leader is to pick them early. While it is harder to pick the right candidates earlier in the process, there are a couple of things to look at that can help you to whittle it down to two or three candidates at the very least. We have provided you with some of our top tips for the winner below.
Look at how each candidate launches their leadership bid
Even if there are multiple candidates at the start of the leadership contest, you can usually tell the most serious candidates by how they launch their bids. For example, if a candidate pitches their early bid with a slick video and presentation, it’s a sign that they might have been planning it for some time. While there’s no guarantee, such candidates will usually get support and run deep into the election process.
Consider each candidate’s motivation
Not all candidates will launch a leadership bid with the intention of winning, some will do it either to boost their profile or to secure a top job within the cabinet by pulling out at a later stage. This is especially true if the party electing a new leader is already in government.
Look at the politics of each candidate vs the party as a whole
When it comes to making a successful bet on UK politics, sometimes looking at the political stance of each candidate can be useful - who knew?! While there are various complexities of the political views covered within the Tory party, you can generally s[lit them into two camps - the moderate and not-so-moderate conservative. As a rule of thumb, you will generally have a centrist candidate vs a more right-wing candidate by the time you reach the membership vote.
Check the betting next Tory leader odds at Betfair
When it comes to betting, it’s hardly surprising to hear that the bookies’ odds are important. In the case of Betfair though, they can almost give us better predictions than the polls themselves. For example, the Betfair Exchange was almost the only outlet to correctly predict the hung parliament in the 2017 general election.
Think about electability
Although party leadership contests and general elections are two very different things, the winner of the Tory party leadership will invariably have to lead the party into a general election at some point in the near future. While we technically don’t vote for the Prime Minister in the UK, the party leaders are still the figureheads and how they might be viewed by the electorate is important.
Betting On Next Tory Leader
- Where To Find The Best Odds
As we’ve already said previously, Betfair has a particular penchant for having accurate odds and predictions when it comes to UK politics and they are also one of the
best high-limit betting sites
to boot.. However, it isn’t the only bookmaker offering odds on UK politics. In fact, when something big like a Tory party leadership election comes around, most UK bookies will offer odds. Behind a general election, Labour and Tory party leadership contests are the most popular betting events in UK politics such as
betting on the next prime minister.
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Using a comparison tool to compare the live odds being offered amongst all UK bookmakers is very much advisable. However, things like
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and the quality of the platform itself should also be considered. As well as Betfair, some of the top UK bookmakers for politics betting include William Hill, 888sport, Betfred and Unibet.
Betting Next Tory Leader
- The Conclusion
To summarise, success when betting on the next Conservative Party leader is all about picking the right candidate as early as possible if you want to find the best odds. It’s important to remember that, even in recent politically uncertain times, Tory Party leadership elections have still been a foregone conclusion by the time the final membership round of voting has been reached. As well as consulting news and sources from the world of politics, also look at what Betfair and other UK bookmakers are predicting.
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Betting Next Tory Leader
FAQ
🤔 What are the betting odds for the next Tory leader?
The betting odds for the next Conservative party leader are changing by the second, and you want to get good value for your bet while you can. That’s why you can compare the best odds right now here at Betting.co.uk.
👤 Who will be the next Conservative leader
Check out the
UK bookies’ favourites for the next Tory Party leader here at Betting.co.uk. Our aim is to bring you betting odds, guides, and more for the biggest events in UK politics.
🇬🇧 How will the next Tory leader be decided??
Full details of how the next Tory leader will be elected can be found in our guide. Additionally, you can also follow the odds and betting info here at Betting.co.uk. Follow the link for more.
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