Expert Punter
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Golf fans it’s that time of the week again and it’s fair to say I’m on a bit of a roll at the minute. In the last three weeks I have managed to bring you the winner of the Italian Open at 20/1, the Byron Nelson at 18/1 and this week, not only did we land the winner of the PGA Championship at 18/1, but we also landed the 66/1 forecast bet, with Brooks Koepka beating Scottie Scheffler.
That means the current total for this year is 482 points of profit, meaning if you had put just £1 on each of my selections since January, you would now be £482 better off.
This week, we start with the KLM Open in the Netherlands on the DP World Tour and then over on the PGA Tour we have the Charles Schwab, and I will be looking to land the spoils for a fourth week running. I am going to play the usual win singles, but also the cross-tour doubles to really amp up the value. I’m feeling really confident in my golf betting tips again this week, so let’s get straight into it.
With two events and a total of nine selections to turn our attention to this week, it would be well worth your while using this exclusive offer from Ladbrokes, where you can bet just £5 and get £20 in free bets. This offer is credited as four £5 free bets, so you can cover all of my selections at the prices I’ve quoted and with five selections in one event and four in the other, it makes great sense to take advantage.
KLM Open - Bernardus Golf Club - 7445 yards
My strongest selection for the KLM Open this week is going to be eight-time DP World Tour winner Pablo Larrazabal, who has been in some really good form this season, having already won the Korean Open by two shots on a course not too dissimilar to this one. Conditions are likely to make the course play fast and the Spaniard has a fantastic touch round the green, which will be needed at some stage this week for sure.
He played well at the US PGA Championship last week too. Starting with a fine first round of 69, he made the cut and was consistent enough going forward, posting a three further scores of 75, 74 and 74. Consistency like that around such a difficult track was impressive and he will find things much easier here this week.
He has also played very well in the European Opens, having won the French and also finishing second in this event back in 2012. He has the game to go well here and his short game may prove vital this week. In fact, he has all the tools he needs to compete well this week, provided his stint at last week's Championship hasn’t taken too much out of him, but he is after all a seasoned Tour professional, so it’s unlikely that will be the case.
My second strongest selection for the KLM Open is going to be Marcel Siem, who seems to impress me week in, week out at the minute. He is absolutely fearless and even after a bad round, or a wobble mid-round, he always seems to be able to battle back really well and has become a fantastic putter.
He added a fifth DP World Tour title to his name this year when he won the Indian Open, following on from good finishes in both the Thailand and the Singapore Open, both in the top 20. I think his game suits this course very well indeed. You need a good putter with the undulating greens and Marcel is known for using his chest putter, which has changed his game completely this season.
He is good around the greens and when he gets on a roll, he can really shoot some low scores. You do need to be able to maintain this over the four rounds, but even after a triple bogey in the second round of the Soudal Open, he battled back to get himself into the top 10. I think this year Marcel is a force to be reckoned with and his price does not do justice to his ability, especially on a course that should be to his liking.
Guido Migliozzi stood out to me from a mile off this week based on his price of 50/1. I thought he would be half that coming into this event based on his talent. He is a three-time winner on the DP World Tour and shot a final round of 62 to win the French Open last September, which really stood out as one of the rounds of the entire season.
In his last two events he finished in the Top 20 for both the ISPS Handa Championship and the Korean Championship and was really well-fancied to win the Italian Open last time out in front of his home crowd, but sadly, that wasn’t to be. He has since had two weeks off which should freshen him right up for this week.
Guido has big hopes of getting himself a Ryder Cup spot, but following big performances from a few of his fellow competitors, he really needs to stamp some authority down on the field this week to get himself back in contention. That said, he is a really strong all-rounder and we know he’s good enough on his day, it’s just a case of putting it all together and this week he has a good chance to do just that.
Antoine Rozner has been one of my regular selections all season. I really rate him as a player and would have him borderline for the Ryder Cup squad if I was one of the judges. He is a really solid player and clearly good enough. He is just outside of the world Top 100 currently, but is in 17th position on the Road to Dubai series, so a win here would put him right up there with the leaders.
I would certainly put his name alongside that of Adrian Meronk, who is also seeking a Ryder Cup spot. Antoine is a smart golfer and has a really technical golf swing, but he tends to keep it simple on the course and shouldn’t be far away if he comes here ready to play his A game. I like players that figure even when they are not playing at their best and Antoine is that guy. He finished third in the SDC, but in recent weeks has only managed a 31st, followed by two Top 20 places and it must be said that he wasn’t playing anywhere near his best.
The last few weeks may have been a bit of a leveller for Antoine, but he’ll now be hungry for his fourth DP World title and a Ryder Cup spot. I think this track suits him nicely, he will play it strategically and he has a great short game to match. I’d be very disappointed if he wasn’t in the Top 10 this week, but his price certainly suggests that he should be.
One of my favourite players on the DP World Tour has to be Jorge Campillo, won the Kenyan Open a few weeks back in spectacular fashion. He was also the second leg in what turned out to be a winning 373/1 double, when he carded scores of 69, 68, 63 and 66 to win 18 under par.
He backed that performance up further by finishing ninth in the ISPS, third in the Korean Championship and then ninth in the Italian Open, showing exactly why he is in the Top 10 for the Road to Dubai series. His iron play is the highlight of his game, he really is superb with his mid to long irons and that will really help him here this week.
You need to be hitting plenty of greens in regulation here and this should suit Jorge very nicely indeed. He was awarded golfer of the month in March and has since become a real force on the DP World Tour. He does need to improve on his finish in this event last year, where he missed the cut, but he is in much better form now and surely full of confidence again.
Charles Schwab - Colonial Country Club - 7375 yards
Tony Finau has finished in more Top 5 spots than anyone else on Tour over the past two seasons and at his price, I think he is strong value for the place money again. He has just six career wins to his name, but a total of thirty-one Top 5’s and in a strong field, he offers good value if turning up in form.
His most impressive golf this year came in the Mexico Open, where he held on from a late Jon Rahm charge to beat him and was excellent through all four rounds. For me, that showed he is absolutely up there with the best and I’m pretty sure he is going to win a Major in the next couple of years. There’s nothing too flashy to mention about Tony, but he offers solid value compared to the top few on the market.
Tommy Fleetwood has threatened a return to form this season and his game has slowly been coming together. He is yet to win on the PGA Tour, but this year alone he was third in the Valspar, fifth in the Wells Fargo and then finished in the Top 20 at the most recent PGA Championship, which was another good effort.
For this course, his approach play will have him hitting plenty of greens, but I would like to see him putting a little more consistently, but fear not, it is not drastic. I have put him up a few times already this year and I’m sure he will get his maiden PGA Tour victory soon. He is contesting almost every week at the moment and he struck the ball really well all week at the PGA, so all he needs now is to get that putter rolling.
I put Eric Cole up at 350/1 last week and he nearly managed to sneak into the Top 10 for us, missing out by just one shot. He handled the week so well, carding scores of 67, 74, 70 and 70, which was some performance on one of the biggest golfing stages. He plays a solid game with very few question marks, so I’m truly surprised at his price here.
Eric is a really likeable player who just keeps getting better. With two top 10 finishes this season and his career-best Major finish last week, he must be full of confidence. This week will be much easier for than last week at Oak Hill and he is sure to put up another big effort. I’m certainly not going to miss out on him being triumphant at those odds.
Max Homa is one of my favourite players to watch on Tour. It seems like he has every aspect of the game nailed down and he started off the year by winning the Farmers Insurance Open, which really got his season off to a great start. Evidently unfazed by the big stages, since that win he has done really well, finishing second in the Genesis, sixth in The Players and eighth in the Wells Fargo.
He is a real class act and he just goes about his business nicely. I like the angle of an all-round decent player this week, as you need to be really switched on to play at the Colonial and Max definitely has the class game needed to compete well here. I think with the selections I have put up already, Max Homa is a great addition to this week’s team.
Thanks everyone for tuning in again I do appreciate the support you have all been giving me and the fact I have managed to repay you with some huge priced winners makes it even better.
If you have already signed up with Ladbrokes, don’t worry, there are more than £250 worth of free bets right here for you to select from.
If you want my selections before they go live anywhere else, do come along and join me on my Discord golf chat where I give daily updates on the progress of the events.
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