Key Points
- A profitable week, concluding with my Oaks NAP landing!
- Now for the big one, the 2023 Epsom Derby
- Runner-by-runner guide, plus my winning picks right here!
More winners coming right up!
Well gang, we have had another profitable week and the icing on the cake was my Oaks NAP, Soul Sister, landing today! Now, we head on to Derby Day, and I think I’ve found the winner again for this year’s renewal.
Tomorrow is destined to be a great day’s racing at Epsom, but I’ve decided to go for a runner-by-runner guide for tomorrow’s big event to help you narrow down your choices and I'll give you my own verdict at the end. The ground is definitely going to be on the faster side of good tomorrow, which will certainly suit some more than others, but whatever happens, we are soon to see a new superstar emerge.
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13.30: The 2023 Epsom Derby - 1m 4f
Adelaide River @ 66/1
Adelaide River
looked quite smart on debut on the all-weather, but has struggled a little bit since then and he is up against it here. He was no threat to Arrest in the Chester Vase and would have to significantly improve to feature in such a challenging race.
Arrest @ 7/2
Arrest
has been really impressive to date and his win in the Chester Vase looked like there will be plenty more to come from him. There has been some gallop footage of him floating around and he looks deadly when on track, with bags of stamina too. Frankie is already on a roll this week and my only slight concern is the rapidly-drying ground, but he’s clearly a very smart colt and has to have a big chance here.
Artistic Star @ 33/1
Artistic Star
has had a progressive start to his career judging from his two starts to date, but even though he is likely to improve again, the Derby is a big ask and he will surely find a few too good. He is still very immature, being a late foal and will come on again for the experience. However, to expect results in a race of this calibre on just his third start, is perhaps a shade too far. That said, he could well be one to keep an eye on in the future
Auguste Rodin @ 4/1
I backed
Auguste Rodin
for the 2000 Guineas and kicked myself latterly for getting on the hype train. However, the vibes have been very strong from Aiden O’Brien and he has been well-supported in the market. He will improve and is sure to prefer the track here at Epsom, but there is a lot there that must be taken on trust. He is a hard one to assess, but he’s already too short in the betting to fool me a second time.
Dear My Friend @ 125/1
Dear My Friend
found Group company too much of a stretch as a two-year-old and will get left behind here. In fairness, he is a very hones colt, but he is totally out of his depth here.
Dubai Mile @ 20/1
Dubai Mile
is a beautiful colt that I personally like a lot. Interestingly, he has already beaten Arrest, the current favourite, when they met in Saint Cloud, he only went down with a fight in a tussle against The Foxes in a Group 2 at Newmarket and he also managed a fifth in the 2000 Guineas. He may just be nearing the ceiling of his ability, but he is a proper tough colt who will surely run a good race again. I can’t see him winning here, but worth playing for a place.
King Of Steel @ 50/1
King Of Steel
ran a blinder to win on his debut at Nottingham on soft ground and he looked every bit a stayer that day too. He struggled behind Auguste Rodin next time out, but in fairness that was on heavy going. He goes up a considerable amount in distance here, which is interesting, but maybe connections think this trip and the better ground will bring out more in him. He is undeniably a bit of a dark horse here and he’ll need to find something special to win, 50/1 or more, he isn’t without the hope of a place.
Military Order 9/2
Military Order
is half-brother to Adayar, who won this and the King George. He comes into this race fit and ready to go. He started off in weak company, but has adjusted to better races well and is a big scopey horse who should really enjoy it here at Epsom. He beat Waipiro at Lingfield, showing a great turn of foot in the final furlong. He stays all day and must have strong credentials based on what we’ve seen of him so far. It will be disappointing if he doesn’t feature in the first three.
Passenger @ 13/2
Passenger
went unnoticed in the betting on his debut at Newmarket, but he absolutely bolted up, looking like he has stamina aplenty. He finished third next time out to The Foxes when stepped up to 1m 2f, but he had his path blocked twice before making some stylish late headway and looked an unlucky loser. The trip should be no problem for him and I think he has a massive chance, even though this is just his third start.
I’d usually say that was a negative, but I can’t help being super-impressed with the way he travelled that day and York isn’t the easiest track for inexperienced horses. I think he is way ahead of schedule and with his huge engine, I firmly believe he presents a huge danger to his rivals here. Add to that the fact that Sir Michael won this race last year and it’s no surprise to see connections supplemented him for this.
San Antonio @ 33/1
San Antonio
is a gorgeous looking colt and despite not winning as a two-year-old he has fared much better this year, winning well on the all-weather twice now. His return to Turf is the worry for me, as his previous races on this surface came on slower ground than he’ll get tomorrow. He may well still be improving and staying won’t be an issue, but the going rules him out for me.
Sprewell @ 11/1
Sprewell
is something of an unknown quantity. He has Group 1 winning form in his family, but again, I am concerned with this faster ground, which I honestly feel will catch him out. He has done well in all of his starts so far and could have won by much than three lengths last time out at Leopardstown. He is a very nice colt, but on this ground, it’s a no from me.
The Foxes @ 14/1
The Foxes
won superbly at York last time out, in the same race as Passenger, but I think with this one, it’s very much a case of what you see is what you get and he may just find a few too good here. Oisin Murphy loves this colt, but also shared concerns over the ground when interviewed today. A good horse, but one with question marks hanging over his head as a Derby prospect.
Waipiro @ 28/1
Waipiro
is highly-regarded by his trainer Ed Walker, but he was firmly put in his place by Military Order last time out and would need to significantly improve to win this. Not one for me and for what it’s worth, I don’t think he will enjoy it at Epsom either.
White Birch @ 12/1
You won’t find many better-looking colts than
Silver Birch
and even though he has a little bit to improve on, he has really come on since he turned three. He ran a really eye-catching race in the Dante behind The Foxes, making up some really good ground late on. Both Silver Birch and Passenger, who was third that day, will handle this trip better than The Foxes and I’d dearly love to see his trainer, John Murphy, win a Classic. He will stay with no problem at all, but hold-up tactics will not help him here. If he is ridden more prominently, he has to be a danger to the runners at the top of the market.
Joe’s verdict
Time for the important part. So, who wins this year’s Epsom Derby? Well,
for place money I think White Birch has a massive chance
if the right tactics are applied. The last thing they want to do here is to leave it too late for him to get a decent run.
Arrest
is surely going to go close and the footage we have seen of him on the gallops was really breathtaking, but
I think he will come in a close second, rather than gaining another victory this time out.
The only winner for me this year is the Sir Michael Stoute-trained
Passenger, who simply looks like a horse that is going to keep on progressing. He travels supremely well, does his best work later on in his races and
I think Passenger truly has potential to surpass all of his rivals
here.
Ginger Joe’s winning picks for the 2023 Epsom Derby
- Passenger @ 13/2
- Arrest @ 7/2
- White Birch @ 14/1 EW
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Let Joe know your thoughts
So now you’ve seen it, my runner-by-runner guide to the 2023 Epsom Derby. You’ve seen my winning pick, so now it’s your turn to join me on my social media channels and let me know your thoughts!
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