Weekend Racing Recap: Rising Stars Shift the Season Narrative
It was a fantastic weekend of racing, and one that could have a real say in how the rest of the season unfolds. A few performances certainly caught the eye, and there may even be some early ante-post angles worth considering.
Jango Baie Announces Himself at Ascot
One of the highlights came in Saturday’s Ladbrokes 1965 Chase at Ascot, where Jango Baie gave us a real glimpse of his promise for Nicky Henderson. With Gidleigh Park and Il Est Français setting a strong tempo early on, the race was always going to test the field. Once Il Est Français began to fade turning for home, Jango Baie took over, and did so in fine style. He stayed on powerfully up the straight, and his jump at the last was particularly impressive. Considering there’s been a bit of a cloud over the yard recently, this performance arguably looks even better. He appears to have plenty of stamina in hand, and the idea of stepping up in trip feels entirely realistic.
The plan now seems to be the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day, and based on what we saw, he looks a leading British contender. At just six years old, there’s still a lot of improvement to come, which makes him an exciting prospect for the season ahead. Looking further down the line, it’s not impossible to imagine him developing into a Cheltenham Festival Gold Cup type in time. While March may come a little soon to be winning the big race, the raw ability is certainly there. He’s currently 3/1 for the King George, whether that’s worth taking now is up for debate, but the conversation has definitely started.
King George Odds: 3/1 with BetMGM
The Jukebox Man Impresses on Return at Haydock
The other notable performance on Saturday came in the Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase at Haydock, where we saw the return of The Jukebox Man for Ben Pauling. Making all from the front, he barely missed a beat with his jumping, pinging every fence and staying on strongly to the line. Visually, it was a very impressive comeback. There’s no doubt he’s a talented horse and another who could be heading toward the King George picture. That said, the race wasn’t run at a strong pace, allowing him to dictate before quickening away. That scenario was far from ideal for the runner-up Iroko, who has a Grand National campaign in mind for the spring, and there wasn’t a huge amount of depth behind them. So while the performance was dominant, the form may need a little caution when assessing what comes next.
Still, The Jukebox Man is another young British staying chaser to look forward to in the coming seasons. Would he be a betting proposition for the major spring targets, or even Kempton right now? Probably not for me at this stage, with Jango Baie still the more convincing option based on what we’ve seen.
Wodhooh Shines in the Ladbrokes Ascot Hurdle
Another standout display on Saturday came from Wodhooh, the Martin Pipe winner, who landed the Ladbrokes Ascot Hurdle in impressive style. Although officially rated 10lb higher than the field, the mares’ allowances meant she received 7lb or more from most of her rivals, so on paper, she was weighted to win. Even so, she still had to go out and deliver, and she did exactly that. The way she travelled and quickened suggested she has a serious engine for the two-and-a-half mile trip, and it’s easy to see why she’s now being talked about as a leading contender for the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
Could she win in March? She certainly has the ability, though much may depend on what another high-profile mare does later in the season (more on that shortly). Either way, Wodhooh looks a very talented and exciting prospect going forward.
Lossiemouth Dominates and Sparks a Festival Debate
That brings us neatly to Lossiemouth, an extremely talented mare and one that’s hard not to admire. A two-time Mares’ Hurdle winner, she looked almost certain to return for a third, at least before the injury to State Man shifted the landscape. Instead, she turned up in the Morgiana Hurdle over two miles at the weekend, went off a very short-priced favourite, and won as easily as you could ask. The form probably won’t amount to much, but she was a wide-margin winner and did everything right.
The big question now is where she heads next. Champion Hurdle or Mares’ Hurdle?
At this stage, it feels likely she’ll follow the route State Man would have taken, with the Irish Champion Hurdle shaping up as the obvious stepping stone. That would allow connections to keep an eye on the likes of Constitution Hill, The New Lion, and their stable mate Anzadam before making any firm festival decision. If she were to win an Irish Champion Hurdle, depending on the strength of the field, you would have to take the Champion Hurdle option seriously. But right now, I still feel she's more likely she returns to the Mares’ Hurdle, a race that suits her best. She looks every inch a two-and-a-half mile mare who might just come up a touch short at the very top level over two miles on better ground.
A lot will depend on how the division shapes up. If Constitution Hill doesn’t return to his peak, and The New Lion doesn’t make the leap from novice company, we could be looking at an unusually weak renewal in March, at which point, why wouldn’t you take the chance. Either way, the Fighting Fifth will provide the next crucial piece of the puzzle, and it can’t come soon enough.
Grey Dawning Coasts to Betfair Chase Glory
The first Grade 1 of the UK season for staying chasers, the Betfair Chase at Haydock, produced another eye-catching performance, this time from Grey Dawning, who went one better than his runner-up finish last year. Conditions were far less testing than twelve months ago, and while the field wasn’t the strongest on paper, the manner of his victory was hard to ignore. There had been some buzz around Haiti Couleurs as a potential improver stepping into deeper waters, but he never fired and ran well below expectations. The ever-game Royale Pagaille, now eleven, tried to make all and once again ran a huge race, but when it mattered, Grey Dawning and Harry Skelton simply laughed at the opposition.
Skelton barely had to ask for any effort, nursing Grey Dawning through the race before easing past up the straight. It was as smooth a Grade 1 win as you’ll see, and an exceptional watch. The big question now is what comes next. Is he ready to mix it at the very top level come spring? Could he develop into a Gold Cup contender this season, or might connections consider a drop back for the Ryanair, or even repeat last year’s decision to skip Cheltenham and target Aintree instead?
For now, the door remains wide open, and his performance certainly puts him back on the staying-chase radar, but if he's good enough to win one of the big ones, I'm not so sure in all honesty.
A Thrilling John Durkan Caps the Weekend
The final race worth reflecting on has to be the John Durkan, and it turned into a fascinating contest. As racing fans know, several runners weren’t operating over their optimum trip, and Gaelic Warrior was allowed a fairly easy time of things out in front. The only horse willing, or able to keep him company was Fact To File, and the field was strung out very early. Turning for home, it became the match everyone expected. Locked together over the final two fences, the pair went stride for stride all the way to the line. For a moment, it looked as though Fact To File was going to reel in Gaelic Warrior, but under a strong drive from Paul Townend, Gaelic Warrior battled back and snatched victory in the final strides.
It was a fantastic finish, and it leaves us with some big questions:
How far does Fact To File go in the Ryanair again?
Does Gaelic Warrior take his chance in the King George, and even the Gold Cup?
Gaelic Warrior lining up in a King George would be quite a spectacle, but given how hard a race he had on Sunday, taking a short price before hearing how he comes out of it feels risky. What’s certain is that both horses are operating at elite level, and they’ll be major players in the season’s biggest contests from here on.
Closing Thoughts
All in all, it was a weekend that not only delivered excitement on the track but also reshaped several divisions as we edge closer to the heart of the season. From emerging British staying chasers to high-class mares asserting their authority, the picture heading toward Christmas, and ultimately Cheltenham looks far more intriguing than it did a week ago.
We learned that Jango Baie is very much the real deal, The Jukebox Man remains a work in progress with potential, and Grey Dawning has put himself firmly back on the staying-chase radar. Wodhooh announced herself as a serious mare for the spring, while Lossiemouth reopened a fascinating festival debate. And if the John Durkan was anything to go by, the Irish heavyweight clashes are only just getting started.
The season has taken a significant step forward and there’s plenty more to come.
Ante-Post Takeaways
Below are the key early betting angles based on what we’ve seen with a sensible dose of caution still in play.
Jango Baie - King George VI Chase at 3/1 with BetMGM
He’s the most convincing option from the weekend at a reasonable price. The performance at Ascot was deeply impressive, and he looks the leading British contender. At current prices, he’s the only one worth serious consideration and I'd he happy to take that and will, Gaelic Warrior if he turns up will be a tough horse to beat but he's got a very hard race to overcome and its not guaranteed he will.
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