Key Points
- Arsenal are beginning to purr
- Amorim and United set for tough night in the capital
- Player passes bet selected for first time this season
Head coach Ruben Amorim is in store for his most difficult challenge yet when he takes his United side to in-form Arsenal on Wednesday night.
The new manager claimed his first win as The Red Devils’ manager in his first home game last Sunday, a thumping 4-0 victory against a struggling Everton side. The win made it 4 points from his 2 PL games since taking charge, following the 1-1 draw away at Ipswich, and moved United up to 9th in the table and 6 points behind The Gunners who currently sit 2nd on 25 points.
Mikel Arteta’s men have won each of their last 3 games in all competitions and played the best football of their season so far. They’ve rediscovered their killer instinct and have scored a whopping 13 goals in those 3 wins and along with Brighton and Brentford, are unbeaten at home this term.
Gunners finding their groove
After 2 points from 4 PL fixtures back in late October and early November, Arsenal have since gone undefeated in 4 in all competitions and have found their shooting boots once again. Arteta’s team managed to score all 5 goals before half-time in their 5-2 victory away at West Ham last weekend with 5 different scorers on target for the North Londoners.
The Emirates has been a real fortress this campaign so far for The Gunners, who have taken 14 points from 18 on offer on home soil and only Brentford and Liverpool have better records in front of their own fans. United have won just once in 6 games on the road this term and that was against bottom-of-the-table Southampton, so will have their work cut out in this one.
Arteta’s Arsenal easy on the eye
It’s clear to see Arteta’s stamp has well and truly been implemented on the Arsenal players over the last couple of years with a 4-3-3 ‘total football’ style of play coming to fruition for The Gunners. The midfield maestro Martin Odegaard is at the heart of all the creativity and chances Arsenal create for the likes of Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz to express themselves with their attacking flair.
With 45% of The Gunners’ attacks coming down the right-hand side through Saka and Jurrien Timber, the United left side, particularly Diogo Dalot, could be in for a tough evening come Wednesday night.
Pressing, passing and possession
Out of possession, Arsenal are timing their pressing well, everybody has bought into the concept and in players like Saka, Rice, and Martinelli or Trossard they have players with massive engines constantly putting opposition defences under pressure. Their free-flowing passing football begins at the back with goalkeeper David Raya who is comfortable with the ball at his feet, playing out to centre-backs William Saliba and Gabrie.
Like a lot of sides in modern football, this is becoming a blueprint but few do it better than The Gunners in my opinion. Arsenal have had more possession than their opponents in 8 of their 13 PL matches and have managed 60% and 66% possession in their last two PL games respectively.
The Gunners love to dominate the ball and dictate the tempo and flow of the game, something which I don’t see changing against United on Wednesday night. If forced to guess, I’d suggest they’ll have close to 60% possession again on Wednesday.
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Home win is likely but let’s back Willy!
The Gunners have been sensational at home this campaign, with 4 wins and 15 goals scored (the 3rd highest number of any side at home) making them clear favourites against a United team without an away win in 4 fixtures.
The Red Devils’ solitary victory on the road came at St. Mary’s back in mid-September. Moreover, they have only managed to gain 6 points away from Old Trafford and have only scored 6 times in these half-dozen matches. My belief is that Arsenal are flying at the moment and will likely win but at 4/9 I can pass that up as a betting proposition.
Saka to score or assist is just too short a price at 4/5
The aforementioned Saka has found the net in each of his last 3 matches and in 4 of the last 5 home games. The England star is joint club top scorer with 5 goals and 10 assists to his name (most in Prem), as well as being the main penalty taker for The Gunners.
The 4/5 best price with
Unibet
for him to score or assist could well pay off again. However, similar to the Arsenal match price, they are just a little too short for me.
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Saliba over 65.5 passes at 5/6 with bet365
French international Willy Saliba likes to play short passes and link between the goalkeeper and the deeper midfielders in Partey and/or Jorginho. Saliba has averaged over 73 passes at home across 7 appearances in all competitions for Arsenal this term with a 94% pass accuracy testament to how good he is with the ball.
This stat of the average number of passes from Saliba accounts for 14% of the total Arsenal team passes per game, just showing how influential the Frenchman is in maintaining Arteta’s style. For defender Saliba to have over 65.5 passes in the match we can get 5/6 with
bet365
and that looks perfectly acceptable.
On all known data I believe his line should be closer to 74.5. That makes it a must bet given I believe Arsenal are only growing in confidence and will face a United side set-up to counter.
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Arsenal vs Manchester United Best Bet
- Market:
Player Passes
- Selection:
William Saliba Over 65.5
- Odds:
5/6
- Stake:
1pt
- Bookie:
bet365
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