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Aston Villa v Man United Betting Tips: Party in the park!

Publish Date: 04/10/2024
Fact checked by: James Leeland
Key Points
  • Can Villa top off an excellent week with 3 points?
  • Lively atmosphere can lead to a physical game
  • Sacked in the morning?

Aston Villa host Manchester United on Sunday on a high after a memorable European night at Villa Park saw them secure a 1-0 victory against Bayern Munich in the Champions League in midweek.

The atmosphere is once again expected to be electric for the visit of beleaguered United. The Red Devils currently sit in the bottom half of the PL table after 3 defeats and gaining just 7 points from their opening 6 matches of the campaign.

Unai Emery’s Aston Villa are 5th in the table, just 2 points behind leaders Liverpool, and in truth, these two clubs are seemingly heading in opposite directions.

Villa have won 4 of their opening 6 fixtures, scoring 12 goals and only failing to score once all season. United on the other hand have lost half of their matches, including two resounding defeats by both Liverpool and Tottenham at Old Trafford, and have scored a meagre 5 goals in the process.

Contrast in fortunes

Whilst Villa have been on the up and up since Emery took charge midway through the 2022/2023 season, it’s the polar opposite for United and ten Hag, whose critics only seem to increase with each passing week he is at the helm.

Emery has won 62 of his 110 matches since being appointed manager at Villa and has only lost once in 9 matches across all competitions so far this term, giving him a win percentage of 78%.

Time up for ten Hag?

It’s a different story for Erik ten Hag and United since the Dutchman took over at the beginning of the 2022/2023 campaign. He has won 69 of the 123 games he has managed, giving him a win percentage of 56%.

However, this doesn’t tell the whole narrative as the PL form and results last season and so far this season have been way under par, and in reality ten Hag and United have been on a steady decline since his first season in charge.

The win percentage has decreased across the time he has been there and this season has started in abysmal fashion, with a 33.3% win percentage so far from the 9 games United have played. A heavy defeat this weekend could quite foreseeably spell the end of Ten Haag.

Ten Hag

Villa Park party!

The feel-good factor just continues for Emery and Villa and they seem to be the perfect match for each other, with his passion on the touchline resonating with the Villa faithful who are playing some wonderful football.

I expect an even louder atmosphere on Sunday afternoon given Villa’s highly impressive win against the German giants on Wednesday and United will be trying to do all they can to keep the stands quiet.

If Villa were to take the lead in the game then the frustration of the United players could boil over and I feel there might be a few fireworks lit up and cards being brandished as the heat rises on the pitch.

A tricky away test for United

United did show some fight on Thursday night at Porto to come back and force a 3-3 draw in added time. That being said, they once again looked shambolic through the spine of midfield and defence when conceding another 3 goals. That excitement and the inevitable very late night following their flight home isn’t ideal preparation for this tricky away test.

Busy afternoon for the man in black

Robert Jones is the referee for the clash and he produced the joint 4th highest number of yellow cards last season with 95 in his 22 games in charge and also showed the joint-highest total number of red cards with 5. This campaign Jones has already shown 1 red card and 22 yellow cards in only 4 matches, giving him an average of 5.5 yellow cards per game so far this season.

United already have the joint 4th highest number of yellow cards so far this season with 19 (only 2 behind Arsenal who have the most). Moreover, they have 3 players with 3 yellow cards to their names in Bruno Fernandes, Lisandro Martines, and Kobbie Mainoo in only 6 PL appearances so far, and the signs look ominous that there could be a few more added to the tally by full-time in this one.

To add to all of that, Bruno Fernandes has found himself sent off in his last two games albeit the red from the Spurs game was later rescinded.

Value bet for Sunday dinner

This eagerly awaited fixture has a mountain of possible markets to bet on and I feel the first market that needs addressing is the main 1x2/Home-Draw-Away market with Aston Villa best priced at 5/4 with bet365 to gain maximum points.

I feel with current form, results, and performances Emery’s men should be collecting 3 points against a much scrutinised and under-pressure United side and manager.

History suggests we should avoid the Villa win bet

I normally don’t put any stock in historical results but when going through the head-to-head results between the two I’ll admit I was pretty shocked at United’s history away to Villa.

The Red Devils have only lost once in the PL away at Villa since 1995 and have an exceptional record of getting a result whenever they seem to play there. That’s created just enough doubt for me to pass on this bet, I may well regret that!

Not enough value in the BTTS market

‘Both Teams To Score’ also caught my attention, with bet365 best priced at 1/2 for the Yes to land. It’s definitely a favourite’s chance but I don’t make it that short.

Villa have had BTTS land in 5 of their 6 PL matches but conversely, this has only happened in 1 of United’s 6 games and this unpredictability of whether United will score or concede week to week just puts me off this bet at such a short price.

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Top pick: Over 4.5 cards at 11/20 with Ladbrokes

I think in terms of a value bet we are best off focusing on the ‘Total Cards Market’ instead. Over 4.5 cards is best priced at 11/20 with Ladbrokes.

Given the referee in charge of Sunday’s showdown and his tendency for showing cards with regularity both in the games this season and the 2023/2024 campaign, I feel this has a strong chance of paying off.

Coupling his record with the white-hot atmosphere from the stands and the pressure placed on United in particular, they could lose their heads and get plenty of cards just like last weekend when they received 6 cards.

The Red Devils have already accumulated one of the highest number of yellow cards this season and given what’s at stake it wouldn’t surprise me at all if this total increases by full-time.

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Aston Villa vs Manchester United Best Bet

  • Market: Total number of cards
  • Selection: Over 4.5
  • Odds: 11/20
  • Stake: 1pt
  • Bookie: Ladbrokes

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