Premier League Update: Chelsea’s Odds Of Reaching Top Four Lengthen

Chelsea could be cut adrift in the race for the top four and miss out on Champions League football altogether. According to the latest odds, most reputable UK betting sites have placed the West London outfit at 9/2 to finish in the top four.

Only a month ago, the Blues were around EVENS to make the top four. However, with the Premier League put on pause due to the international break, Chelsea need a reset.

A torrid run of form

When Enzo Maresca departed Chelsea at the start of January, it seemed Liam Rosenior’s arrival would herald an exciting new era. Indeed, a run of six wins in his first seven games in all competitions indicated that there was a resurgence, and Chelsea were heading in the right direction.

However, Rosenior, who is only a couple of months into a six-year contract, is already facing a significant amount of pressure. The 41-year-old recently presided over a torrid spell where Chelsea lost four times on the trot in the space of 10 days.

A 1-0 reverse at home to Newcastle was sandwiched in between a humiliating 8-2 aggregate defeat in the Champions League last-16 to Paris Saint-Germain, and last weekend, they produced a meek display in a 3-0 loss away to Everton. More disconcertingly, Rosenior’s tactics have been criticised, and his side has slipped to sixth in the table.

Implications of missing out on Champions League

Currently six points adrift of fourth-placed Aston Villa, it is thought that as many as five English teams could seal a Champions League spot due to the co-efficiency rankings. However, if we go on the premise for the moment, that only the top four would cement a Champions League berth, there would be serious ramifications for Chelsea if they don’t qualify.

There is the matter of their wage structure. Chelsea operate slightly differently from other Premier League clubs as they used an incentive-based model with contracts, and that includes Reece James, who signed a new six-year deal earlier this month.

Part of the incentive bonus is tied to the team’s success in qualifying for the Champions League next season. Should Chelsea fail to meet this goal, they could lose several top players, including Cole Palmer and Moises Caicedo, who may be swayed by higher salaries elsewhere. As such, the summer could be a litmus test for the owners.

Counting the financial cost

Since Todd Boehly and his consortium bought out Chelsea in a deal worth £4.25 billion, over £2bn is thought to have been spent on players. However, Chelsea, who won the UEFA Conference League last season, have found themselves in the red.

In February, it emerged in a report by UEFA that Chelsea had recorded the biggest annual loss by an English side. Indeed, for the 2024/25 season, Chelsea made a loss of £355 million, so they could face further sanctions. The club were fined £10.75m and handed a transfer ban last week over secret payments made to agents for deals carried out between 2011 and 2018.

Time not on Rosenior’s side

Interestingly, odds have been released by renowned football betting sites on who could replace Rosenior at Chelsea. Former Chelsea midfielder Cesc Fabregas has come into contention and he is carrying odds of 8/1.

Although Rosenior has a long contract, patience could wear thin quickly. While he is thought to have the support of the board, it remains to be seen whether they will have a change of heart over the summer.