Key Points
- Our selection has had excuses in his runs to date, so you can mark them up
- Pic Roc is improving with every run over fences, with plenty more to come
- Our horse will be a stronger stayer at the trip and should easily outrun his odds
For Day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival, I’m very sweet on Ben Pauling’s runner in the Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase, which is the second race on the card. This one looks excellent each way value to me, albeit in an ultra competitive race. However, I’ll explain the reasoning behind my betting tip, and you can make your own judgement on it.
This is now my seventh article for Betting.co.uk and we have already enjoyed some profitable selections in my short time with them. Yesterday we saw Impose Toi (10/1) finish second in the Coral Cup for place returns. We also saw My Mate Mozzie (13/2) run into fourth place in the Grand Annual. Best of all though, we saw Marine Nationale (5/1) give us a winning leg for our Lucky 15 as he landed the prestigious Queen Mother Champion Chase. There are still two legs of the Lucky 15 left to run, so it’s not too late to check them out and I wouldn’t put you off backing them both as each way singles either.
Betting advice
- Day 3 - Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (14:00 Thursday) -
Pic Roc
@ 11/1 (5 places) -
1pt Each Way
Betfred have the best for price and place terms
If you’re backing Pic Roc today, Betfred has the best odds at 11/1, with 5 places. The other reason to use Betfred is to take advantage of their superb new customer sign up offer which is the best around. If you
bet £10, you’ll get £50 in free bets, received as three £10 singles and two £10 acca bets. That is simply incredible value.
Pic Roc can get Ben Pauling on the board
This will be the debut of a brand new Cheltenham Festival race - the Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase - so it’s very much an unknown quantity. But looking at the field, Ben Pauling’s Pic Roc has plenty of appeal at 11/1 with five places on offer. Ben Pauling is yet to get on the Festival leaderboard this year, but in his defence he has only had one bullet to fire in the first two days, Henry’s Friend in the Ultima Handicap Chase, who ran a respectable race to finish in eighth place.
The thing with Ben Pauling is that he doesn’t do social runners, if he sends them, they have a serious chance. That doesn’t mean they’ll always win of course, but more often than not you’ll get a good run for your money. Ben Pauling also has Diva Luna entered in today’s opening race, so by the time Pic Roc runs, he may already have a winner. And I certainly wouldn’t put you off having a small each way bet on Diva Luna either. Pic Roc’s jockey for today, Ben Jones, already has a winner to his name, after Haiti Couleurs won the National Hunt Chase on the opening day, and I think he can add to his tally here.
In my opinion, Pic Roc’s previous three runs this season were better than the form book suggests. Although he fell on his Chase debut, I felt he was very unfortunate. The race took place up at Carlisle and he was perfectly fine at the first four fences, if anything, he was out-jumping his rivals. He jumped the fifth fence perfectly well too, but crumpled on landing. If anything, he overjumped the fence rather than making a mess of it. As far as the form book goes, a fall on debut could easily suggest that he is a bad jumper, but that is not the case at all.
After that fall, they gave Pic Roc 63 days off to get over it, mainly because he sustained quite a nasty cut. When he came back at Exeter he was reportedly half fit, so he did extremely well to place second, behind Issam, beaten by just a head. He travelled like the winner and I’m convinced if he had been fully tuned up, he’d have won that day.
To qualify for this Cheltenham Handicap, he needed three Chase runs, so connections had to rush him out back out to squeeze another one in. That last run at Newbury probably came too quickly, and he lost it at the final fence, where he was not fluent, and then hanging left before switching right. Again, if he had been 100%, I think he would have won that race. Obviously it’s impossible to say what would have happened at Carlisle if he hadn’t fallen, but if he had been at his best the last two times, I think he’d have won those races. But then again, if he had won them he wouldn’t come here off a mark of 137, so those two second places could be a blessing in disguise.
Pic Roc improves for every run
What I love about Pic Roc is that he hasn’t hit his ceiling yet, and with a horse like that, you can dare to dream. He wouldn’t have blown you away in Bumpers but he ran respectably to finish fifth, third and second, improving with each run. Over Hurdles, he produced form figures of 5-2-1-2-2 and considering his last two Hurdles runs were in the EBF Final at Sandown (off 125 on Handicap debut) and then an Open Handicap, again at Sandown off a 5lb higher mark, I’d say he improved each time again.
His time over fences seems to be going the same way again, if you draw a line through his fall. His first completed start over fences saw him finish second off 132 when reportedly half fit. He then managed second again off 3lb higher, in a stronger race, when rushed back out. Interestingly, if you look at his RPR for each completed run over obstacles during his career, they read as follows: 104, 113, 127, 131, 132, 138, 142.
The most interesting thing of all, is that he had excuses the last two times, so what could those latest figures have been if he was at his best? But even more importantly, what does he have left in his locker for today? My guess is that he still has plenty, especially as he is only a seven-year-old with just two completed starts over fences. I genuinely think a mark of 137 is underestimating him and he has enough in hand to be extremely competitive in this new Handicap race.
He’ll stay up the Cheltenham hill
This race is over an intermediate trip of 2m 4.5f around the New Course at Cheltenham, and that takes plenty of getting. When you factor in the current going which is officially Good to Soft, Soft in places, the juice in the ground will only add to the stamina required. As they turn for home, they’ll be faced with the famous Cheltenham hill, which is well known for sorting the men from the boys. What you need for a race like this is a horse that has the class and gears to go a strong gallop and travel well, but still have enough left in the tank to see out his stiff test strongly.
Pic Roc ticks all of those boxes for me. You could write a fairly similar race description for the EBF Final at Sandown: 2m 4f, stiff track, big competitive field, stamina sapping hill to finish and he handled that well enough to finish a close second to his stablemate. On his latest start over fences, he also showed that he can stay strong over the full 3m trip too. His yard has always thought he will make a staying Chaser in the future, and I am very much inclined to agree with them. I think there will be a point where many are crying no more, Pic Roc will be powering up the famous hill at Prestbury Park, where the winning and losing is done.
Pic Roc is going under the radar here
For the reasons I’ve already discussed, Pic Roc is going under the radar for this brand new Cheltenham Festival Handicap race. But when you scratch beneath the surface, it is extremely easy to make a strong case for him, which I have done. As mentioned, Ben Pauling doesn’t do social runners, or send horses to Cheltenham for no good reason. As we have seen with horses like Handstands, although he clearly has the ability to compete at what is considered the Olympic standard for horse racing, the yard feels the best race for him is at Aintree, so that is where he will go.
The fact that Ben is coming here to tackle this extremely competitive Handicap suggests he is confident that Pic Roc is both ahead of the handicapper and in superb form at home. For me, he just ticks all of the right boxes. He has reasons to be ahead of his current mark, he is entitled to progress further, and he’ll stay the trip strongly. Furthermore, the ground is ideal for Pic Dor, he runs for an in-form trainer who is having a great season, and he has a great jockey on board. In my opinion, Pic Roc wouldn’t look out of place closer to the top of this market, where anything 8/1 or more represents value. So, with 11/1 on offer, I’m more than happy to recommend having an each way bet on him.
Two days left - don’t waste these offers!
We are already half way through the Cheltenham Festival with two days down and two days left to go. You’ll simply never get better sign up offers from bookmakers than during this week as they fight for your custom. So make the most of it and enjoy yourCheltenham punting courtesy of some free bets.
1.
New customers only. 7 days to place qualifying bet of £10 at 1/1 (2.0) to receive 4 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 football, 1 x £10 horse racing & 2 x £10 Bet Builders. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Exclusions apply. Stake not returned.
18+. T&Cs Apply.
2.
£20 Back-Up Bet as Free Bet
Min. Deposit: £10
18+ | New UK players only | Min deposit req. £10 | Certain deposit methods excluded | Place 1 sport bet (3+ selections) | Excl Horse Racing | Min stake £10 | Max stake £20 | Min Odds 2/1 (3.0) | Max FreeBet £20 for football only | FreeBet valid for 7 days | FreeBet stake not returned |
T&Cs apply.
3.
Bet £10 Get £30
Requirements (WR): £10 Slots bonus on selected slots
18+ Opt in, bet £10 on any football (odds 1/1+) within 3 days of sign up. Get 2x£10 and 1x£5 Free Bets for set football markets + £5 Slots Bonus on Big Bass Splash, 30x wagering, max redeem £125. Bonuses expire in 14 days. Click for T&Cs. GambleAware.org
4.
Bet £10 Get £30 Surprise Bet
Min. Deposit: £10
New customers & 18+ only. Min. deposit of £10. Qualifying real money bet of £10. Min odds greater than or equal to 1.5 required. E/W bets excluded. Offer awarded immediately but could be issued the next working day in exceptional circumstances such as technical fault. Additional T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly.
5.
Bet £10 Get £50 in Free Bets
Min. Deposit: 10
New customers only. Register (excl 05/04/25), deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply.
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
