Key Points
- An intriguing 10/1 selection for the Albert Bartlett
- He has course form, including a very prestigious Grade 1 victory
- His jumping is improving with every run, and he has a top jockey on board
For Day 4 of the Cheltenham Festival, I have a betting tip for the 3m Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) who is trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Paul Townend. And let me just say right now, this horse is certainly far from being an obvious choice. But in this article, I’ll break down my thoughts on today’s selection and hopefully by the end of it, you’ll understand.
We are now on the final day of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. Whilst we have enjoyed a lovely winner and some places, I’m hoping to finish this four-day racing extravaganza with a bang. As well as today’s Albert Bartlett pick, don’t forget that we also have the final runner from our Lucky 15 will be taking his shot in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle, so be sure to check out that as well.
Betting advice
- Day 4 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (15:20 Friday) -
Jasmin De Vaux
@ 10/1 (4 places) -
1pt Each Way
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Jasmin De Vaux can get Paul Townend back to winning ways
It has been a quiet Cheltenham Festival by Paul Townend’s standards, which is ironic considering he’s been more involved in the Handicaps than usual this year. It all started smoothly with wins on his first two rides - Kopek Des Bordes and Lossiemouth - in the Supreme and Mares’ Hurdles respectively. But since then, Paul has yet to record another victory.
Interestingly, other than the final Hurdle fall for State Man in the Champion Hurdle, and Final Demand briefly looking dangerous in the Turners before finishing third, he hasn’t really had much joy. However, he has a couple of good rides on Kargese and Allegorie De Vassy ahead of this one on the final day, so he may get back on track but if not, hopefully he can find success for us in the Albert Bartlett ahead of his big Gold Cup ride on Galopin Des Champs.
On the other hand, Willie Mullins has fired in a few more winners. He had the same two as Paul on theDay 1, but has since added Lecky Watson, Jimmy Du Seuil, Bambino Fever and Fact To File, taking his tally up to six across the first three days. He has plenty of opportunities to add more successes today too, and hopefully Jasmin De Vaux is one of them.
The track will play to his strengths and negate his weaknesses
I’m sure plenty had high hopes for Jasmin De Vaux coming into the 2024/25 season, but it largely hasn’t happened for him. He won a Maiden Hurdle at Navan on debut, but since then he has been a well beaten fourth in two Grade 1s at Naas and Leopardstown. He was sent off as 11/8 favourite with Paul in the saddle for the first of those, so it must have been a disappointment to all concerned. However, everybody knows he has an engine under the hood, it has just been his jumping that has spoiled his season to date.
This is where I think the track is a huge factor. Whilst they say “if you don’t jump, you don’t win”, I think Cheltenham’s New Course over Hurdles is one of the exceptions. Obviously you can’t afford to hit every one of them, but you can get away with some sloppy jumps. When you’re travelling downhill on the Old Course, you have two hurdles to negotiate, but there is just the one on the New Course.
From the second last hurdle, on the New Course, you have a run of around 7f with just one hurdle before you head for the line. If you can keep in touch until that point, then it all comes down to raw ability, grit and tactics rather than jumping ability. The bigger emphasis on stamina can also see the leaders come back to those deeper in the field at the business end. All of this will suit Jasmin De Vaux - If there is just one hurdle in the final 7f, there is only one for him to get wrong.
For many of these horses, this will be their first experience of the Cheltenham Festival and the atmosphere that comes with it. Cheltenham is a unique track at the best of times and it can catch many horses out. As the old saying goes, “horses for courses” and many don’t suit Cheltenham. The atmosphere is rarely rivalled and the noise, volume of people, and tension in the air, can also make horses boil over. All of these are concerns if your horse hasn’t yet proven it can handle them.
However, the huge positive for us is that Jasmin De Vaux has already been there, done it and got the T-shirt, or more to the point - the trophy. Last year Jasmin De Vaux came to the Cheltenham Festival for the Champion Bumper and fought off 18 rivals to land the prestigious Grade 1 prize. That day he showed that he can handle the crowds and the atmosphere and he also acts at the track. These are crucial boxes to tick in my eyes and he does exactly that. Also, when you look at the form from that day, Romeo Coolio (2nd) has since ran third in the Supreme and The Yellow Clay (6th) ran a gallant second in the Turners’. So it all reads pretty well for sure.
His jumping is improving and this could be the day it all comes together
Ultimately, no horse wants to be going to Cheltenham with chinks in their armour. But if Jasmin De Vaux didn’t have his jumping quirk, he’d almost certainly be a short-priced favourite for this race, and we wouldn’t have any value. While I wouldn’t bet my life on him having a clean round of jumping, he is going the right way. He didn’t jump with fluency on his debut and it was quite worrying, but it was his first attempt, so you could forgive that. It is also worth noting that whilst he did plenty wrong, he still had the raw ability and engine to beat nice horses like The Enabler and Workahead.
On his next start he was thrown in the Lawlor’s Of Naas (Grade 1) but despite the better quality of race and the longer trip, he still jumped poorly. This was a more worrying sign, as he didn’t appear to have learned from his debut. In fact, if you saw this again, you’d really start to doubt if he would ever deliver over Hurdles. But the fact that he bumped into The Yellow Clay that day, and given the subsequent form, it reads much better.
The element that gives us real hope though, was the last day in the Nathaniel Lacey & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade 1). He was pushed up to 2m 6f and while he was no match for a red hot Final Demand that day, his jumping was much better overall. It was not flawless by any stretch but it was a step in the right direction. He now heads back to a track he loves, running at a more sedate pace over an even longer trip, and with just one hurdle in the last 7f. If he is ever going to put it all together, surely it is here.
I think he can piece the puzzle together and deliver
As touched on, the Albert Bartlett is over 3m and between the longer distance, the stiffer track and the inferior opposition, this should be much easier for Jasmin De Vaux than last time. Likewise, the more sedate pace over this longer trip should allow him more chance to get his jumping in order. Worst case scenario, he continues to jump poorly, but I feel he just needs to make it to the second last in contention. If he is still up there with 7f to run, and just the one hurdle to jump, then you’d have to give him every chance.
On the long run to the last you would hope he could negotiate his way into a strong position and even if he gets the last wrong, he should be within striking distance to recover and still win. Given the fact that he has the raw ability to win even if this goes sideways, just imagine what he could do if he gets into a rhythm… Paul had the choice of six Willie Mullins horses in this race, but is still willing to give Jasmin De Vaux another chance with conditions to suit. I’m with Paul on this one, are you?
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