Ginger Joe - The Qipco 1000 Guineas - Runner By Runner Guide

The 2024 Qipco 1000 Guineas - Newmarket, Sunday 5 May - 15:40

On Sunday at Newmarket we have the 1000 Guineas for the three-year-old fillies. It is always a superb race to witness and it has been won by some incredible horses in the past. And this year’s renewal looks set to be an absolute cracker. The current favourite is Fallen Angel for the Karl Burke team, but Aiden O’Brien runs Ylang Ylang as he seeks his eighth 1000 Guineas winner, and frankly, she has an outstanding chance.

That said, there are plenty further down the market that are all set to run big races and I am going to go through the runners one by one to help steer you in the right direction, finishing with my verdict on how I think Sunday’s biggest race will pan out.

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Cinderella's Dream @ 16/1

Cinderella’s Dream is a lovely filly and she remains unbeaten in her four starts to date. She will definitely act well over a mile, so she has no trip worries, but this is a big step up in class compared to her previous runs. She could potentially be an each way player, but even then, she would need to improve plenty at the same time.

Dance Sequence @ 4/1

Dance Sequence is the main hope for the Godolphin team and she has a big chance in this race. Her three runs so far have all been here at Newmarket over seven furlongs. She won both of her two-year-old starts, and was then just touched off in the Nell Gwyn on her first run of this season. She wandered around on the final furlong, but will come on plenty for it and she is well worth a crack at the mile trip. She is bred to improve for the extra furlong and shouldn’t be far away.

Darnation @ 33/1

Darnation deserves her chance here after three wins during her two-year-old campaign, but the level of form she has shown is way short of the mark. She would need to have improved a huge amount during her off time to feature here.

Elmalka @ 25/1

Elmalka is one I rather like from an each way angle, but it’s possible that her lack of experience could get in the way. She won on debut, just got touched off at Newbury two weeks ago in a Group 3, but she looked open to plenty of improvement on that run. She is a very lightly-raced filly who could be open to more, making her an interesting contender for the Varian team.

Fallen Angel @ 11/4

Fallen Angel is a very impressive-looking filly, who capped off a fine two-year-old season with a win in the Group 1 Moyglare at the Curragh on fast ground. She looks to have an ideal profile for this race, as she was sired by Too Darn Hot, who was a Group 1 winner here at Newmarket over the mile. Conditions look ideal for her and she has already had a win here over seven furlongs, so we know she handles the track well. She wouldn’t need to progress a huge amount to feature here and ticks a lot more boxes than most.

Porta Fortuna @ 16/1

Porta Fortuna is a very fast filly who finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf and she was only just touched off that day. That was her first attempt over the mile and I think she is well worth another crack at this trip. The ground may potentially turn out to be softer than ideal, but she clearly has stamina and seems to be going under the radar judging by her price - definitely not one to write off.

Pretty Crystal @ 12/1

Pretty Crystal won the Nell Gwyn last month beating Dance Sequence, and that was a pretty good performance. She would need to improve again to feature here and I’m not entirely convinced that she is suited by the step up in trip, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Dance Sequence reversed the form.

Ramatuelle @ 8/1

Ramatuelle represents Christopher Head’s yard. She was progressive and ultra-consistent as a two-year-old and could be open to even more. Ramatuelle has posted some good numbers as she has gone up in trip, and looks like she has plenty of stamina too. The mile wont be an issue for her and she is an interesting contender coming here from France.

Regal Jubilee @ 20/1

Regal Jubilee has won twice the mile, and was just touched off in the Dubai Duty Free a couple of weeks ago on her seasonal reappearance over a slightly shorter trip. She looked in good form last time out and also has a course and distance win on her resume, which is always a plus point. However, she will need to have come on a fair bit since her last run to get close here.

Rolica @ 66/1

Rolica won here at Newmarket last month over seven furlongs, but she was all out when doing so and the step up to a mile doesn’t look like an obvious move here. She is a nicely bred sort who deserves to take her chance, but it’s unlikely she will feature.

Sacred Angel@ 40/1

Sacred Angel has only run over six furlongs so far, and the fact that she is stepping up to a mile here is a big cause for concern, especially in this company. In her defence, she did beat Pretty Crystal over six furlongs in a Group 3 race, but I would avoid her this time.

See The Fire @ 8/1

See The Fire finished just over a length behind Ylang Ylang in the Fillies’ Mile last time out, which is definitely strong form, but I’m not at all sure how much more improvement there is to come from her. To put things in perspective, she has three lengths to find with Darnation, so I think her price tag is way too short here.

Star Music @ 66/1

Star Music has a lot to find on form and I couldn’t have her at any price. She isn’t bred to appreciate the step up in trip either, so this is a mammoth task for her. A nice horse for some Handicaps down the line perhaps, but certainly not good enough for this.

Star Style @ 25/1

Star Style is a very intriguing runner as she didn’t have a two-year-old campaign and has had just the one start as a three-year-old, where she absolutely bolted up at Newbury by five lengths. It’s difficult to weigh that form up, but she travelled strongly, got better as the race went on, and to me, she looks well worth a crack over the mile.

Tamfana @ 66/1

Tamfana is a lovely filly and even though her form doesn’t quite stack up, she did bolt up over the mile at Kempton last year and made an encouraging seasonal reappearance to finish a close third at Deauville in a Group 3 last month. I don’t think she is good enough to win this, but she wouldn’t be the worst each way bet in the world.

Ylang Ylang @ 4/1

Ylang Ylang is the runner that intrigues me most here. She has a lot of personality and the penny finally dropped for her on her last run as a two-year-old. She won the Fillies’ Mile in good style and she did plenty wrong during the early stages of the race. That run leaves her open to loads of improvement still, because if she can settle, she may well be open to much more. She is bred to appreciate this trip over a mile and I would imagine she has come on plenty for her winter break. I expect a huge run from Ylang Ylang on Sunday.

The GJ Verdict

Fallen Angel looks set to run a big race here and she showed plenty of speed as a two-year-old, but I feel the need to take her on at such a short price. Ramatuelle and Porta Fortuna both have strong each way chances, and appear to be going under the radar a bit, but Ylang Ylang is a different story. She will have matured plenty over her winter break and we could be about to see her put her best foot forward here. She is a slightly tricky customer, but she finished last season off in great style, whilst doing plenty wrong, and I think she is more open to improvement than the rest of the field.

My 1-2-3 prediction for the 1000 Guineas

1. Ylang Ylang
2. Ramatuelle
3. Porta fortuna

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