Key Points
- A preview of the 2024 Qipco 2000 Guineas
- My runner-by-runner guide and verdict
- More betting tips for Saturday coming soon
The 2024 Qipco 2000 Guineas - Newmarket, Saturday 4 May - 15:35
The first Flat Classics of the year get under way this weekend with the 2000 Guineas taking place on Saturday and the 1000 Guineas on Sunday. We have a fascinating lineup for both events and some seriously high profile horses running in each race.
This year’s renewal of the 2000 Guineas sees City Of Troy as the short-priced favourite, who makes his bid for the tenth win of his career and his fourth for trainer Aiden O’Brien. City Of Troy is one tough cookie to beat, but there are some very strong contenders in the lineup ready to take him on.
To get things rolling, here is your runner-by-runner guide and my verdict for the 2000 Guineas. Later on I’ll be putting up even more betting tips for a big Saturday of racing and then tomorrow, I’ll be covering Sunday’s 1000 Guineas, so you’ve got plenty to look forward to.
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Alyanaabi @ 16/1
Alyanaabi
runs here for Owen Burrows and Jim Crowley and this is a horse I quite fancy at an each way price. He was steadily progressive as a two-year-old and is open to plenty on his first start of this season, especially if the surface stays firm. He was only three lengths behind City Of Troy on his last start and that was on soft ground, so it was a huge effort in those conditions. I think Alyanaabi’s price underestimates his ability, despite having a few lengths to find with the favourite and it would be no surprise to me if he were to get closer this time.
City Of Troy @ 4/6
City Of Troy
is the hot favourite for this race and he brings huge potential into this field. He was exceptional as a two-year-old and is the only Ballydoyle representative this year, which could be a tip in itself. He is one of just two Group 1 winners in the race and it will take a huge performance to stop him based on what we saw last season. He won the July Stakes and the Dewhurst, putting on dominant displays in both and I think he will be seriously tough to beat here.
Ghostwriter @ 11/1
Ghostwriter
is a beautifully-bred horse who made it three out of three with a win over course at the end of last season. He is a really strong traveller, but will definitely want the ground to stay on the faster side. He has yet to be tested on a slower surface and from what I’ve seen, it won’t improve his chances if the rain comes. Obviously he is entitled to improve, but on bare form, he has at least 10 lbs to find with the favourite, and I think he is too short in the market
Haatem @ 25/1
Haatem
brings Group 2 form into this race, having won the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last year, but has looked a little awkward since then. He did manage to finish off his two-year-old campaign with a win here at Newmarket, but at the same time, he has been held by the favourite and would need to improve plenty to reverse that form. Richard Hannon knows how to train milers very well though, so he may well improve as a three-year-old and isn’t without a chance of hitting the places.
Iberian @ 20/1
Iberian
is a very interesting horse. He was very green last year, but following a runner up effort behind Haatem, he went on to win a Group 2 next time out, so he clearly has ability and deserves his place in the lineup here. He looked a little immature again on the final run of his two-year-old campaign, but there’s no telling how much he could have improved after the winter off and I certainly wouldn’t write him off..
Inisherin @ 50/1
Inisherin
is a horse I rather like the look of and I’m sure he has a nice future ahead of him, but it’s hard to weigh up his ability at this stage. He was second over course and distance on his only start last season, and then won well on his seasonal debut last month, with form that has been very nicely franked since. He represents strong connections and he is a likely improver, but this is a deep race and a big step up in class for him, so you are taking a lot on trust if you side with him. A bit of a dark horse for sure.
Night Raider @ 12/1
Night Raider
is a lovely colt by Dark Angel and he comes into this race unbeaten after two wins on the all-weather for Karl Burke. He won both in seriously good style, but he does need to prove that he can be as effective on turf and over this longer trip. He wasn’t bred as a miler, although the visuals he has offered so far are really hard to ignore. That said, he needs ground on the faster side and with the likelihood of rain, his chances might be scuppered. Night Raider is a very flashy colt, and definitely one to keep on side with.
Notable Speech @ 10/1
Notable Speech
is somewhat notable in that he is the only runner representing Godolphin in this year’s renewal. He is a smart-looking colt, sired by Dubawi, and he is genuinely open to any amount of improvement. He is already proven over the mile, having won all three of his starts to date and he has a wicked turn of foot too. This race could actually set up really nicely for Charlie Appleby’s runner and Notable Speech is well worth a second look here.
Rosallion @ 11/2
Rosallion
is a seriously impressive-looking colt who has won three of his four starts to date and capped off a fine season by winning over at Longchamp in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. To me, that looks like one of the strongest pieces of form on offer in this field and if he turns up in top nick, then he could be the main danger to the favourite. The only slight concern I have is that his only defeat came on soft ground and it looks like there is some rain due at Newmarket.
Task Force @ 18/1
Task Force
is one of my favourite Flat horses in training and he has some good form over six furlongs. However, he would need to improve a ton to get the extra quarter of a mile and he’s unlikely to get anywhere near the front of the pack here. He is a lovely horse, and certainly one to keep onside over shorter trips, but the mile looks a bit too much of a stretch this time.
Ten Bob Tony @ 80/1
Ten Bob Tony
actually put up his best performance to date when making his seasonal debut here just three weeks ago. He deserves to be here, but he would need to improve a lot to catch most of these, and I definitely can’t see him scaring the runners at the top of the market.
The GJ Verdict
This year's 2000 Guineas has a number of ground dependent sorts in the field and it looks like we have a fair amount of rain coming too. Assuming the forecast is right, then the ground is likely to be on the softer side, which will make City Of Troy even harder to beat.
The one I think will fare best of the rest is Alyanaabi, for Owen Burrows, who only has a bit over three lengths to find with the favourite. He could get even closer to him on softer ground and at a double figure price he represents a solid each way shout.
Of the remainder I think Notable Speech could potentially finish in third, as his proven form over a mile will have him very nicely poised for this run at Newmarket.
My 1-2-3 prediction for the 2000 Guineas
- City Of Troy
- Alyanaabi
- Notable Speech
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