Key Points
- My betting tip for the Red Rum Handicap Chase won off the same mark last year
- His trainer looks to have been targeting the race all season
- Champion Jockey Harry Cobden takes the ride and he is fantastic at getting it right
In today’s article I will be providing you with a betting tip for Day 1 of the Aintree Festival and it comes in the Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase. The horse looks great value to me at 15/2 and hopefully he can repeat the feat of last year’s win in this race.
This week I have already produced two articles relating to the Aintree Festival so make sure you check those out if you haven’t already. The first one was trends for the Grand National based on the last 25 renewals, so hopefully that can help you find the winner of this year’s race. The second was an early pick for Saturday, so make sure you check that one out too and get on at the early price, as I think he’ll shorten.
Betting advice
- 16:40 Aintree -
Sans Bruit
@ 15/2 (4 places) -
0.5pt each way
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Sans Bruit can record back to back wins in Red Rum!
Whilst you can build a case for a few in this very competitive looking Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase, I think the horse to be with is Sans Bruit for Paul Nicholls. He looks to have an outstanding chance and looks great each way value at his current price of 15/2 with four places on offer. Next I’ll break down why I think he is the one to side with here.
He won this race last year and returns to repeat the feat off the exact same mark!
Last year, Paul Nicholls sent Sans Bruit to this race off a mark of 128. However, he was 2lb out of the handicap and had to take his chance off a mark of 130. Despite the extra 2lb on his back compared to his official mark, he was well supported into 5/1 second favourite and toppled the market favourite - Saint Roi.
He travelled strongly, jumped well and made all in a remorseless victory under Bryony Frost. Saint Roi also did the form a few favours by only going down by a short head at the Punchestown Festival off 2lb higher and then winning at Galway off 6lb higher!
After being raised 10lb to a mark of 140 and running third in his next three starts, Sans Bruit peaked at a rating of 143. However, he has since tumbled back down 13lb in his last four starts and returns for this race off the exact same mark of 130 as last year, which must give him an outstanding chance if he’s in the same form on the day.
His trainer looks to have been targeting this race again and he has excuses for his defeats
As mentioned, San Bruits ran very credible races on his next three starts after his win in this race last year, finishing third on each occasion off marks of 140, 139 and 139, proving that his Aintree win was no fluke performance.
As a general rule, he wants to avoid the softer winter ground. The fact his two thirds at Exeter and Ascot in November came on Good ground only supports that further. His last three starts have all been on unsuitably soft ground and it’s no surprise that he hasn’t been at his best.
It is also worth noting that he was taken on for the lead by Editeur Du Gite at Kempton and by Jetronic and Javert Allen at Chepstow, which would have hampered his chances. In the run at Windsor and the other at Kempton, he was dropped in which I don’t think he enjoys and the latter Kempton run was also over 2m4.5f, which I don’t think he enjoys either, especially on softer ground.
Returning to better ground here, I think we could see him bounce back to form and if he is allowed an easy lead, which he could well be looking at the pace angles for the race, he could be extremely dangerous. Even if he isn’t allowed an easy lead, hopefully he can put them to the sword with his jumping and end up dictating anyway.
Champion Jockey - Harry Cobden takes the ride and he’s fantastic at getting the fractions right
If you needed to compose a list of intelligent jockeys that can understand a race and particularly set the right fractions to win a race, Harry Cobden would be right towards the top of the list. If they adopt the same tactics of last year i.e. they look to make all, then the jockey’s mental clock, speedometer, calmness and ability to get breathers in at the right times can be the difference between winning well and being well beaten. We shouldn’t be lacking in those areas with Harry Cobden in the saddle.
Harry has been beaten on Sans Bruit on both starts that they have combined for this season but they were two runs with unsuitable conditions and therefore, I’d be prepared to draw a line through those rather than be concerned by them. On better ground, off a feather weight of 10st 6lb and returning to Spring ground, I think Sans Bruit and Harry Cobden will be a serious force in this race and look superb value to me.
Leave the trophy on the mantelpiece as it’ll only be coming home with San Bruits again!
Whilst horses like the top two in the market - My Mate Mozzie and Primoz as well as General Medrano went to Cheltenham, Paul Nicholls has kept Sans Bruit fresh for Aintree, which I like to see. Especially as this year, the gap between the two Festivals is pretty skinny!
All elements considered, I think Sans Bruit has an exceptional chance of winning the Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase again. He looks to have been targeted at the race all season, he comes back off the same mark as last year, the ground looks ideal for him. There is no other obvious leader in this field and the Champion Jockey takes the ride. Despite all of that, he is a lovely price at 15/2 with four places on offer.
The sharpness and flatness of Aintree’s Mildmay course suits front runners, so hopefully they let Sans Bruit bowl along in front like last year. And if they do, I think he’ll take some pegging back!
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I am currently producing four articles every week for Betting.co.uk, mostly betting tips, but also some feature pieces like big race trends. I usually post my best bet of the day here, but the majority of my betting tips can only be found on my Discord server.
The Discord community
allows you to get involved in what is effectively a huge group chat of like-minded individuals that all love their racing too!
Yesterday, we saw our outlay over doubled with Straw Fan Jack toppling an odds on favourite at 11/2 for the Discord members, starting April on a profitable note! More details about these Discord tips and the write ups for them can be found over on my X account - @RacingGav, if you want to know more.
I hope to see you there!
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