Key Points
- My betting tip for the Topham Handicap Chase
- My pick runs off bottom weight and looks extremely well handicapped!
- This step back in trip and faster ground could give his trainer a record sixth win
In today’s article, I have another selection for you from Aintree’s Grand National Festival. Yesterday’s Day 1 selection won at 15/2, providing a lovely return of 5.5pts from the 1pt (0.5pt each way) staked and hopefully we can continue that success on Day 2.
This is my fourth Aintree Festival article for this week, so make sure you check the others, if you haven’t already. The first features trends for the Grand National based on the last 25 renewals and the second contains an early pick for Saturday, you can still get on at a decent price, but be quick, as I think he’ll shorten.
Betting advice
- 16:05 Aintree -
Excello
@ 12/1 (6 places) -
0.75pt each way
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Excello can excel in the Topham!
With a field of 30 horses in a race over the Grand National fences, the Topham Handicap Chase is a fascinating puzzle to try and solve. However, I think I have found a horse that has an exceptional chance of glory in this year’s renewal. Here I’ll break it all down for you.
Nicky Henderson knows what it takes to win the Topham, as he has already won five of them!
In these big Festival Handicaps, you sometimes see certain trainers coming persistently to the fore because they like to target specific races. That seems to be the case in the Topham Handicap Chase, with Nicky Henderson having an eye-catching record in the race. Along with Peter Bowen, Nicky Henderson shares the record for the most wins in the race, with five on his CV: Won’t Be Gone Long (1990), Liberthine (2006), Triolo D’Alene (2013), Ma Filleule (2014) and Rajdhani (2015).
If you dig deeper, he has also had plenty go quite close. In 2017, he had O O Seven finish fourth. In 2018, he had Kilcrea Vale fill the same spot. He struck fourth again with Janika in 2019, after going off 9/2 favourite. He also had O O Seven back in eighth that year, despite bleeding from the nose. In 2022, Janika came back for another crack at the race and finished seventh.
In 2023, Nicky nearly landed win number six with Fantastic Lady coming second, beaten by just 1.75 lengths. Fantastic Lady also came back last year, finishing sixth. Of course, Nicky has had his fair share of unseats and fallers too. He may well have had even more wins and places if they all managed to stay upright. One thing is for certain though, Nicky knows how to train one for the Topham and that is a great advantage for Excello.
Sneaking in off bottom weight, he looks very well handicapped in this field!
Of the 30 runners taking part, Excello will carry the lowest weight of just 10st 2lb after sneaking into the last spot at the bottom of the handicap. Interestingly, despite not making 10st 2lb since 2021, Nico de Boinville will make that very low weight to take the ride aboard Excello.
That is also despite Nicky Henderson running Fantastic Lady again, who Nico rode to finish second and sixth in the last two renewals. As a general rule, when a jockey goes out of their way to make such low weights, they are not doing it for fun. One that springs to mind is Mark Walsh making the same 10st 2lb for McLaurey at the Dublin Racing Festival in February, and that horse won!
Excello won a graduation Chase at Ascot in December 2023 over this 2m 5f trip and on Good ground. He beat Solo that day, who is a talented horse in his own right, and that win saw his mark rise from 133 to 146. After two disappointing runs at Cheltenham during that campaign, and four spins over Hurdles this time, he returned to fences last time out.
He ran at Sandown over 3m on Good ground off a reduced mark of 132. He ran an exceptional race, jumping like a stag and looked the winner. However, the trip and the Sandown hill caught him out, so he faded on the run-in, dropping from first to fourth but was still only beaten by a length at the line. The handicapper could have easily raised him for that performance, but generously left him alone…which could prove very lenient!
This step back in trip looks perfect for him and the ground looks ideal too!
With the way he shaped like the winner but didn’t get up the hill at Sandown last time, the drop back to 2m 5f here looks perfect. His previous win at Ascot, which was a career-best performance, also came over this trip, which serves to reinforce that view. In a similar fashion, the Ascot win and the Sandown run the last day both came on Good ground, so this quicker ground at Aintree should be right up his street.
I’d assume with cheekpieces going on and his featherweight, they plan to be aggressive with him over this trip, which makes perfect sense to me. Around a flat track on decent ground, I think he’ll stay 2m 5f extremely strongly. Which means Nico can make the most of that stamina and put Excello’s rivals to the sword. He will surely take many out of their comfort zone, especially those carrying the bigger weights. We saw similar tactics adopted successfully with San Bruits yesterday, and hopefully we see more of the same here!
Nico may skip breakfast, but he can enjoy some champagne later!
For me, Excello just looks rock solid all round. I can see why Nico is keen to get down to 10st 2lb to take the ride, and hopefully that commitment is rewarded with a win! Interestingly the trends suggest you want a horse no older than ten (8 out of 9), and carrying no more than 11st 2lb (8 out of 9), both of which Excello meets.
Another, is a horse that’s had at least 13 Chase starts (7 out of 9), while Excello is nowhere near with just seven Chase starts, the last two winners defied that trend. The other two of the last four winners, who also defied that trend, were trained by Nicky Henderson.
Similarly Excello is a six-year-old and only four six-year-olds and two five-year-olds have ever won the Topham - going all the way back to 1949. The most recent pair to do this were Triolo D’Alene in 2013 and Ma Filleule in 2014, who both won this as six-year-olds and both were trained by… yes, you guessed it… Nicky Henderson!
Another statistic that is interesting is that Nicky Henderson has a 20% strike rate when applying first time headgear, which bodes well for Excello sporting first time cheekpieces here. Every box I look at, he ticks it. So I then think perhaps these National fences could be his downfall as he is unproven over them. However, I then find footage of Nicky Henderson talking about him schooling over these fences.
Nicky had a real sparkle in his eye and a smirk on his face when talking about him - “he was something else… so good..!”. Even in his quote given to the Racing Post, he said:
"Excello has shown a great attitude to these fences at home, we schooled him at home and
he was exceptional."
At the very least, with six places on offer, he has every chance of running into one. But all elements considered, he looks to have an outstanding chance of being first past the post today.
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I am currently producing four articles every week for Betting.co.uk, mostly betting tips, but also some feature pieces like big race trends. I usually post my best bet of the day here, but the majority of my betting tips can only be found on my Discord server.
The Discord community
allows you to get involved in what is effectively a huge group chat of like-minded individuals that all love their racing too!
Wednesday saw us more than double our outlay with Straw Fan Jack toppling an odds on favourite at 11/2 for the Discord members, starting April on a profitable note! Then yesterday, we had San Bruits win the Red Rum Handicap Chase at a price of 15/2!
More details about these Discord tips and the write ups for them can be found over on my X account - @RacingGav, if you want to know more.
I hope to see you in the Discord!
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