Key Points
- An early betting tip for Aintree on Saturday and he returns to defend his crown.
- My pick won this race last year, and he has been kept fresh for this renewal.
- While some of his rivals prefer softer conditions, he’ll relish the better going.
Today’s article brings you an early betting tip for Saturday - specifically for Day 3 of the Aintree Festival. My selection runs in the Grade 1 Ivy Liverpool Hurdle, which is effectively Aintree’s version of the Cheltenham Stayers’ Hurdle. I think my selection has a huge chance in the race and I’ll be breaking down why in this article.
If you haven’t already seen my content for betting.co.uk, be sure to check out my previous articles. The two that I would strongly recommend for you are the Grand National Trends to help you identify the 2025 Grand National winner and my antepost selection for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. My selection for the latter was advised at 33/1, but remains available at 28/1 and that still looks great value to me.
Betting advice
The 2025 Aintree Festival Day 3 - Saturday 5 April
- 15:05 Aintree -
Strong Leader
@ 6/1 (3 places) -
1pt each way
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A STRONG chance this horse comes home the LEADER!
My selection for the Ivy Liverpool Hurdle is the Olly Murphy trained Strong Leader as he bids to win back to back renewals of this Grade 1 race. Olly Murphy has had a very strong season but he’s yet to land a Grade 1. I think Sean Bowen can deliver him that elusive Grade 1 here on his way to becoming Champion Jockey, a feat that he owes plenty of thanks to Olly for if he can achieve it.
He’s been there, done it and got the trophy - I think he can repeat the feat!
In the 2024 renewal, Strong Leader triumphed in this race by 4.25 lengths to give Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen a Grade 1 victory. Now I am under no illusions that it wasn’t the strongest of renewals. However, you can only beat the horses in front of you and he did that and he did it well.
I also feel it is worth noting that he was held up in rear and won going away, so it really was a case of him winning by as far as Sean Bowen wished. It is also worth noting that he hit the last as well and without that, the winning margin would have only been bigger.
This has clearly been the target for him all season and with his campaign geared up towards it as well as the ground coming up in his favour, I think he’ll take a great deal of beating and I’d certainly struggle to see him out of the places, which would return a profit itself at a price of 6/1.
He has been kept for this race and their patience can be rewarded once again.
Last season, Olly Murphy made the ballsy call to bypass Cheltenham’s Stayers’ Hurdle and come straight to Aintree with a fresh horse. That risk paid off when he landed this Grade 1.
They have adopted the same tactics this year. He won on his reappearance at Newbury, which is another left handed Flat track like Aintree. He then failed to fire at Ascot before having wind surgery, suggesting his wind was an issue that day and I’d draw a line through that run. He then went to the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham where he could only finish 4th but I’m not convinced the track’s undulations suit him.
That defeat at Cheltenham was likely the nail in the coffin for his chances of running in the Stayers Hurdle at the same track and they bypassed the race. Many of those lining up against him have had tough races at Cheltenham such as Teahupoo and The Wallpark in the Stayers but also horses like Jimmy Du Seuil stepping up from the Coral Cup.
While it’s hard to know how well those horses are coming into this race after those runs, Strong Leader comes here fresh and that could be a huge advantage on the day, especially when the going gets tough at the business end. While they could start to flag, he should be finishing strongly.
The ground is a question mark for some but he’ll relish these drier conditions!
Some of his opposition in this race would prefer softer conditions as that is what they have shown their best form on. Within that would be the favourite - Teahupoo and the third favourite - Home By The Lee. Therefore the drier conditions are a negative for them and the better the ground is on the day, the keener I’d be to take them on.
In complete contrast, Strong Leader’s career best performance came in this race last year on Good to Soft ground. In fact, four of his top five performances, judged on RPR, have either come on Good or Good to Soft ground. So I feel between it being a positive for him and a negative for some of his rivals, the better the ground is, the better his chance is.
He will have no excuses, so he needs to deliver!
The more I look at this race, the more I feel that Strong Leader will have no excuses if he cannot win this renewal. He has been kept fresh whereas some of these have had a hard race at Cheltenham. He prefers better ground and some of his opposition would prefer softer conditions and the ground is coming up in his favour. This is the second run after a wind operation, which is often the time to catch them. He has proven C&D form from when he won the race last year. He has Sean Bowen in the saddle, who is well on track to be crowned Champion Jockey!
With everything in his favour, barring mishaps in-running, the only thing that could get him beat is bumping into a better horse. That said, I’d be surprised if he found two better than him on the day and therefore, he should be finishing in the places at least. I think if you start bypassing big races in order to target one, you have to deliver the goods in it or it will seriously make you wonder whether it was all worthwhile… I think their patience will be rewarded and he can become a back to back winner of the race.
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I am currently producing four articles every week for Betting.co.uk, mostly betting tips, but also some feature pieces like big race trends. I usually post my best bet of the day here, but the majority of my betting tips can only be found on my Discord server.
The Discord community
allows you to get involved in what is effectively a huge group chat of like-minded individuals that all love their racing!
On Friday, we saw a 4.7pt profit in the Discord, which is a profit of £47.00 to £10 stakes with a 9/1 winner and places at 11/1 and 7/1! More details about these tips and the write ups for them can be found on my X account - @RacingGav if you want to know more.
I hope to see you there!
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