Key Points
- My betting tip for Saturday is a graded performer dropped to a Handicap
- He bypassed Cheltenham, so he is fresh for this race
- He is a lightly raced 6-year-old with plenty more to come
In today’s article, I have another selection for you from Aintree’s Grand National Festival. We are in profit for the festival so far with Sans Bruit winning for us at 15/2 on the opening day but I’m hoping to add further profit today!
This is my fifth Aintree Festival article for this week, so make sure you check out the others, if you haven’t already. The first features trends for the Grand National based on the last 25 renewals and the second contains an early pick for today’s Ivy Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) and you can still get on at a decent price!
Betting advice
- 13:20 Aintree -
Bill Joyce
@ 8/1 (6 places) -
0.5pt each way
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Rejoice with Bill Joyce!
In the opening race on Saturday, I think Bill Joyce can topple those at the head of the market and come out the winner for the Jonjo & A J O’Neill stable. In this article, I will break down why I think that is for you so that you can understand my reasoning behind the selection.
Bill Joyce is dangerous, dropping from graded company to a handicap!
The Jonjo & A J O’Neill stable clearly think a lot of Bill Joyce as to date, he has been thrown in a lot of tough races. He was thrown into a Class 2 bumper at Warwick on debut for the yard and came out on top. He was able to follow that up with a further bumper win under a penalty. Not only was he then thrown into the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham but he was sent off just 7/1 for that race, which speaks volumes about the faith the stable have in him. He didn’t fire that day but the price at the off was seriously eye-catching.
He wasted no time over hurdles, winning at the first time of asking up at Carlisle in stylish fashion. The fact he did so with ease over a stiff 2m 4f, suggested he’d enjoy more of a stamina test in the future, which I’ll come back to. He was then thrown into a Grade 2 at Sandown on his second start over hurdles and won nicely by 5 lengths, again staying on well over a stiff track in Sandown.
In December, they stepped him up into Grade 1 company in the Challow Novices’ Hurdle and he ran a solid race to finish third. That form has since been franked with the winner - The New Lion, winning a further Grade 1 at the Cheltenham Festival. The second - Wendigo, also ran very creditably in fifth in the Albert Bartlett (Grade 1) at the Cheltenham Festival as well. Dropped back to Grade 2 company, Bill Joyce ran to a similar standard when third at Cheltenham on Festival Trials Day.
After running in Grade 2, Grade 1 and Grade 2 company the last three times, they now drop him into handicap company here off a mark of 136 and he must be respected in these calmer waters.
Freshness could be the key here and their patience can be rewarded
I also find it very interesting that they have kept him fresh since January bypassing tempting options such as the Cheltenham Festival in order to come straight to Aintree. In complete contrast the three ahead of him in the market - Catch Him Derry, Jeriko Du Reponet and Act Of Authority all had tough races at the Cheltenham Festival.
The former pair ran in the Pertemps Final and the latter ran in the Martin Pipe. Whilst they all ran well and would be dangerous if repeating the form, they all come here off higher marks and with question marks as to whether those runs left a mark. The same comments apply to some of the others further down the market as well.
The O’Neill’s have historically enjoyed some great success at this meeting. However, they have been much quieter in recent years. Therefore, it was nice to see them hit the target with Wellington Arch in the handicap hurdle yesterday. That success shows they can still put it up to the big boys at this Festival and hopefully that bodes well for Bill Joyce here.
Interestingly, the stable won this race in 2006, 2007 & 2010 with Refinement, Albertas Run and Ringaroses, so they know what it takes to do so. In more recent years, Johnnywho was fourth last year, Coeur Serein was fifth in 2022 and Forthefunofit was fifth in 2017, so it is a race that appears to remain firmly on their radar.
At just 6 years of age, he has every right to still be progressing!
Some might look at Bill Joyce and say that on his performances to date, he is just on a fair enough mark. His last three runs have seen him produce RPRs of 138 and the handicapper has him sat at 136. If you took that literally, you would say he only had a couple of pounds in hand and that is not going to win you a big festival handicap.
However, it is worth noting that he is only a 6-year-old and has only ran four times over hurdles in his career to date. Therefore, he is very unexposed and open to plenty of progression. That progression is then where you can find the required handicapping potential to be very competitive in this field. You would also wonder if after failing to prove himself as a horse capable of winning a Grade 1 in the Challow, whether he was showing his true colours at Cheltenham or whether that was a stepping stone towards this race…
The other element to consider is that they have stepped him up to 3m here for the first time. With the way he has finished off his races at Carlisle and Sandown in particular, you would hope that he would improve for this 3m trip. Likewise his Sire is Mahler and his Dam’s Sire is Flemensfirth, so he is bred to have plenty of stamina. It is also worth noting that he is a brother to 2m6f hurdle winner Churchroad Prince and his dam is an unraced half-sister to useful 3m 1f hurdle/chase winner Return Spring. So between his performances and his pedigree, he has every right to improve for this trip.
The Wellington Arch celebrations can continue when Bill Joyce goes in too!
All elements considered, I think Bill Joyce could be underestimated in this race at 8/1 with three ahead of him in the market. As is often the case with betting markets, I feel that recency bias is striking here with the top three all fresh in the mind of the punters following their strong performances at the Cheltenham Festival just three weeks ago. Whilst the strength of that form is undeniable, did they leave their chances of performing well at Aintree over at Prestbury Park? Whereas Bill Joyce is coming here a fresh horse.
Between the drop down into handicap company, his progressive/unexposed profile, his step up in trip, his first time tongue tie and the stable’s clear love for Aintree and in particular this race, I think Bill Joyce is the one to be with today. I think he has every chance of winning the race but with 6 places on offer, I’d certainly be very disappointed if he couldn’t at least finish in the places. The stable may be nursing some sore heads today after Wellington Arch won yesterday but they may have to do the hair of the dog today when Bill Joyce wins as well!
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I am currently producing four articles every week for Betting.co.uk, mostly betting tips, but also some feature pieces like big race trends. I usually post one bet a day here, but the majority of my betting tips can only be found on my Discord server.
The Discord community
allows you to get involved in what is effectively a huge group chat of like-minded individuals that all love their racing too!
Wednesday saw us more than double our outlay with Straw Fan Jack toppling an odds on favourite at 11/2 for the Discord members, starting April on a profitable note! Then on Thursday, we had San Bruits win the Red Rum Handicap Chase at a price of 15/2! It only got better again yesterday with Gentleman De Mee advised at 20/1 (with 25/1 available) to win the Topham and he obliged!
More details about these Discord tips and the write ups for them can be found over on my X account - @RacingGav, if you want to know more.
I hope to see you in the Discord!
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