Key Points
- My betting tip is a stalwart in these Handicap Chases
- A bad mistake four out cost him The Plate Handicap
- Rain will improve his chances and we have plenty forecast
The April Meeting at Cheltenham gets under way today, and I have a betting tip for today’s Handicap Chase. This horse is a 10-year-old now but I think he still has another big Handicap to win before he transitions over to the veterans. He knows this course and distance inside out, and has form in the book to prove it.
If you are seeing my content here for the first time, welcome! Most weeks I post four articles and more during the big festivals. These articles typically provide one betting tip for the day, but I also produce other types of content such as big race trends. If this is your first time reading, you will have missed my antepost selections for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and 2026 Grand National, so make sure you check those out.
Betting advice
- 14:40 Cheltenham -
Fugitif
@ 11/1 (3 places) -
0.5pt each way
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Fugitif can bounce back from Cheltenham disappointment
My betting tip for today is Fugitif, for trainer Richard Hobson and jockey Charlie Maggs. Charlie has an exceptional record for Richard, with three wins from six rides, and I’m hopeful that he can make it four from seven today with Fugitif. Interestingly, one of Charlie’s three wins was on a horse called Some Scope, who runs in the same colours as Fugitif, so hopefully he can repeat that feat for the owner.
There are a number of I feel Fugitif has a better chance than his 11/1 odds suggest and I’ll detail those next.
Fugitif is a stalwart of these races and that experience can pay dividends
In total, Fugitif has run 10 times at Cheltenham, and six of those runs have been over this 2m 4.5f trip on the New course. He knows this track inside out and course experience like that is always a huge bonus. It’s not just any old course form either:
- 28/01/2023 - 2nd in the Trials Day Handicap Chase, pulling 15 lengths clear of third off a mark of 143, producing a RPR of 157
- 16/03/2023 - 2nd in the Plate Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival off a mark of 149, producing a RPR of 158
- 16/12/2023 - Winner of the December Gold Cup off a mark of 151, producing a RPR of 157
- 14/03/2024 - Pulled up in the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase
- 14/12/2024 - 3rd in the December Gold Cup off a mark of 150, producing a RPR of 151
- 13/03/2025 - 15th in the Plate Handicap Chase off a mark of 148, producing a RPR of 124
I’d say you can forgive the Ryanair Chase run where he pulled up, as that was a Grade 1 and a huge ask. Connections were trying their luck, as he had a very high handicap mark after winning the December Gold Cup, but the gamble didn’t pay off for them. The rest of the form is rock solid, and over this course and distance he is usually very reliable.
Forgive his Cheltenham Festival run, one bad error cost him his chance
I would also forgive his latest run in The Plate Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival. He travelled powerfully throughout the race until four out, where he made a bad mistake, and it was pretty much game over from there. From that point on, he was on the backfoot and out wide. Unfortunately, as Sean Bowen was forced to push buttons, it only went more wrong.
Ultimately, you cannot afford to make mistakes in a Cheltenham Festival Handicap. With so many runners in such a competitive race, you basically need to be perfect. A single mistake can see the race get away from you, and that’s exactly what happened to Fugitif. Considering how powerfully he travelled to four out, I’d still keep him on my side. He’s proven he can do it around this course, so I’m willing to overlook that blip and watch him bounce back today.
I’ll be doing my rain dance for Fugitif, who would enjoy some juice in the ground
Whilst Fugitif can handle faster ground, he’s at his best when it’s softer ground. For his last two runs over this course and distance - The December Gold Cup and the Plate Handicap Chase - the ground was officially Good to Soft but in reality, I think it was more like Good on both occasions.
A previous win and two second places came on Soft going, and produced Fugitif’s highest RPR. The going at Cheltenham is currently Good for today, but as I write this they are planning to water the course, and we have some rain forecast too. One way or another, there should be a bit more juice in the ground, and the more the merrier for Fugitif.
Can Fugitif emulate his December Gold Cup win?
Fugitif knows how to win around Cheltenham, and off a mark of 147, which is reduced to 142 by Charlie Maggs’ 5lb claim, he is handicapped very well. As already mentioned, rain will help his chances, but I wouldn’t be against him if it doesn’t come, as he can handle quicker ground too.
At 11/1, he is surely being overpriced by bet365, most likely due to his disappointing fifteenth place at the Cheltenham Festival. Jumping is the name of the game of course, but until that mistake four out, he was tanking along, and looked set to play a big role. With just 10st 11lb on his back, he’ll think he’s running free tomorrow and I really do hope he gets another big win.
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Six winners for the RacingGav Discord last week!
I generally post four articles each week here at betting.co.uk, which are predominantly one betting tip per day. However, the majority of my betting tips are exclusive to the members of my Discord server.
Last week was huge for the Discord with six winners tipped at 6/1, 2/1, 13/2, 7/4, 4/1 and 5/1, as well as three places at 20/1, 6/1 and 6/1. All of this resulted in a double-figure profit in points, and a return on investment of an incredible 49.42%. It is also worth noting that I didn’t even put up any tips on Wednesday and Thursday last week, as I don’t force bets out for the sake of it. So those six winners came from just five betting days.
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