Key Points
- Today’s betting tip looks like he’ll relish the step up in trip
- My selection has already had two runs, so he’s fit and ready to go
- It’s the first run of the season for the favourite, I think he can be beaten
We head back to the Dante Festival for the Day 2 action, and specifically for the feature race - the Group 2 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes - where I’m taking on the hot favourite!
If you are new to my content, I post four articles per week here. They are usually betting tips, but you’ll also see big race trends and antepost tips occasionally. If you look back through my previous articles, you’ll find antepost picks for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and the 2026 Grand National. While you still have plenty of time to back these horses, I recommend that you get on at the early prices for the best value. Meanwhile, make sure to tune back in tomorrow and Saturday, as I'll have more betting tips for you on both days.
Betting advice
- 15:45 York -
Wimbledon Hawkeye
@ 13/2 (3 places) -
0.75pt each way
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Wimbledon Hawkeye can ace his opposition!
My selection has a tough challenge in front of him today as he takes on hot favourite, The Lion In Winter. I believe he has a better chance in this race than his odds suggest, and here, I’ll break down my reasons for backing Wimbledon Hawkeye today.
This horse should relish the step up to 1m 2f
On pedigree alone, Wimbledon Hawkeye should be suited to this trip. His dam is Eva Maria, who produced her best at 1m 2f including winning the British EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap at Newmarket, and she also finished fourth here in the British Stallion Studs EBF Lyric Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race).
His dam’s sire is Sea The Stars, who was an exceptional six-time Group 1 winner, including the Derby and the Arc over 1m 4f. Lastly, Wimbledon Hawkeye’s sire, Kameko, was exceptional over 1m, but he wasn’t disgraced when fourth here in the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes over 1m 2.5f, or the Derby over 1m 4f.
Wimbledon Hawkeye ran a respectable fifth in the 2000 Guineas. The way he was outpaced 3f out before rallying in the latter stages over the 1m trip, suggests that he will relish this step up to 1m 2f. While he needs to improve to beat The Lion In Winter on paper, the improvement he should unlock from this new trip could well be enough today.
With two runs already, Wimbledon Hawkeye is fit and ready for this race!
Many here will be having the first run of their campaigns, Wimbledon Hawkeye has already run twice. On his first run he was second in the Group 3 Craven Stakes at Newmarket, only finding Field Of Gold too strong, and there's no shame in that. He was then thrown in at the deep end in the 2000 Guineas, where he could only finish fifth but again, there is nothing wrong with finishing fifth in a Classic!
With those two runs under his belt, the cobwebs will have well and truly been blown away, and likewise, any freshness should be out of his system now. While others may be feeling it towards the business end, or too gassy to perform at their best, he will have no excuses on either front and should be showing us his best here.
It was slightly different last year, as it was his first experience of a racecourse, which you must take into consideration. However, he improved dramatically in his first three runs last season with RPRs of 80, 95 and 107. If he can hit his peak now, on the third run of his campaign, he has a great chance.
It’s the first run of the season for the favourite, I think he can be beaten!
If The Lion In Winter is anywhere near his best today, he will be tough to beat. After all, he was fantastic in his two starts to date, including beating Wimbledon Hawkeye in the Acomb Stakes last season. However, his two-year-old campaign was limited to just two runs, and he’s yet to get his three-year-old career underway.
This suggests that he has been far from straightforward, or has had a complicated career to date. He also has questions to answer. This is quite a dramatic step up in trip from 7f to 1m 2.5f and after an absence, he could either be too gassy, or lacking fitness.
This will be Wimbledon Hawkeye’s eighth run, but only the third run for The Lion In Winter, and that lack of experience could cause him trouble today. All things considered, I think if Wimbledon Hawkeye is going to beat him, today is the day. It may be that The Lion In Winter is so superior in this field, that he can run without being fully tuned up and win anyway, but at the current prices of 10/11 to 11/10, I’m keen to take him on, and I think Wimbledon Hawkeye is the horse to do that with.
Can Wimbledon Hawkeye tame the Lion?
Judging on the form in the book, I think The Lion In Winter and Wimbledon Hawkeye are the two standout performers in this field. Of course, many of the others are open to improvement, and can announce themselves in this race, but I prefer to work off evidence rather than potential.
The big difference today is that Wimbledon Hawkeye should be primed and ready for this whereas for The Lion In Winter this is just a stepping stone/big piece of work ahead of the Derby which is his ultimate aim. Whilst The Lion In Winter is likely the superior horse, I’m not sure he can afford to turn up underprepared both mentally and physically for this race and get away with it.
If Aiden O’Brien has him close to his best, he will be tough to beat and the Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore partnership are always tough to take on. We have seen exactly this in their domination of the big race trials lately. If these were the same two horses priced up at 2/1 and 4/1, I’d be happy to leave the race alone.
However, with the disparity in prices between The Lion In Winter and Wimbledon Hawkeye, I think the gap is too big and there is plenty of value in the 13/2 on offer for the latter. Wimbledon Hawkeye looks a fantastic each way bet to me, but on the basis that The Lion In Winter could be special, and Wimbledon Hawkeye needs to prove that he needs the step up in trip, I’m limiting the stake to 0.75pt each way.
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