Key Points
- Today’s betting tip already has winning form over C&D
- He was given a mid-season break to wait for his favoured conditions, and it looks like it might pay off
- This horse is overpriced, especially after the news that Ombudsman won’t be running
Well, what a month August was for my free betting tips here at Betting.co.uk. We ended August with a profit of
+28.637pts
- an incredible ROI of
178.98%. My first betting tip for September is an antepost pick at a tasty double-figure price. Hopefully it will see us add to the overall profit of
+49.532pts
already achieved since I became the resident horse racing tipster here!
If you are new to my articles, I typically post four times per week with various types of content. The articles are predominately focused around daily betting tips, but I also cover other areas like antepost tips, guides and big race trends. Then once a month, I produce an article updating everybody on my results, and
the latest one is already available
for you to read.
If antepost betting interests you, I already have a number of live bets that you might want to check out. These include the 2025 St Leger, which is run later this month,
the Cesarewitch in October, and the King George VI Chase in December. In addition to those, I have even looked ahead to the Cheltenham Festival and the Aintree Grand National in 2026.
Betting advice
- The 2025 Irish Champion Stakes - Leopardstown, Saturday 13 September -
White Birch
@ 10/1 (3 places) -
0.5pt each way
PricedUp are my bookmaker recommendation for White Birch
At the time of writing, a handful of bookmakers are offering 10/1 for White Birch and I feel that is well worth taking. In terms of who to go with, I’d recommend PricedUp. If you don't already have an account with PricedUp, they have a decent new customer offer. If you
bet £40, you’ll get £20 of free bets. Certainly worth a look if you fancy a go on White Birch.
White Birch is overlooked in the Irish Champion Stakes
The betting markets for horse racing are often skewed massively by recency bias and I think we have another example of that in White Birch’s price for the Irish Champion Stakes. He’s priced up as big as 10/1 and for me, that seems too high, but it’s most likely due to the fact that we haven’t seen him on the track since the end of May. However, I for one haven’t forgotten his ability in the interim!
White Birch has been lightly raced over the past couple of years and since September 2023, he has only raced at the Curragh.
However, he does have form at Leopardstown, and it is winning form over this same 1m 2f trip. On the third start of his career he was thrown into the Ballysax Stakes (Group 3) and he won.
He also ran over 1m 4f here, and produced a respectable fourth place, but that can be marked up considering it was off the back of a 69 day break following a tough Group 1 race.
White Birch was given a mid-season break to wait for his favoured conditions
White Birch started this season’s campaign off with a run in the Mooresbridge Stakes (Group 2) at the Curragh. He was going easily and looked the winner when switched 2f out, but it was his first outing of the season, which seemed to catch him out, and he couldn’t get past Los Angeles.
He returned to the Curragh next time in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1) a race he had won the previous year. Unfortunately he was denied a clear run more than once, and could only run into fourth inside the final furlong. Given the trouble White Birch experienced in-running and the fact he would have preferred some juice in the ground, that run can be marked up.
After two runs on Good ground (arguably faster in the Tattersalls Gold Cup based on the time) and with the forecast only suggesting there was quicker ground to come, connections decided to give him a mid-season break. With the ground expected to remain unsuitable for him and some nice targets to aim at in the Autumn, it made perfect sense. Especially as the ground is more likely to suit him at this time of year.
If the forecast is correct (never guaranteed) that move could pay off, as between tomorrow and the day before the race, there is a massive 59.3mm of rain expected to fall at Leopardstown! We can therefore expect plenty of juice in the ground, which in turn would make White Birch a very happy horse!
White Birch is overpriced, especially after the news that Ombudsman won’t be running here
Yesterday the news broke that Ombudsman will not be running in the Irish Champion Stakes. This triggered some moves in the antepost market including Delacroix being cut from around the 5/2 mark down to a best price of 5/4 - literally half his original price.
Yesterday morning, prior to the news about Ombudsman, White Birch was priced up between 10/1 and 12/1. Mid-morning he briefly touched 14/1 and even 16/1 with one bookmaker. Following the news, some cut him to 8/1, but others have sat firm on his price, which baffles me.
At the time of writing, 10/1 is still widely available, and I think that is the completely wrong price for White Birch, especially with Ombudsman not lining up in the race now. Personally I think he should be closer to half of his current price, so even those who have cut him to 8/1, haven’t reacted strongly.
Can White Birch reward the patience of his connections?
White Birch is a serious animal, he is a Group 1 winner carrying a rating of 121. His defeat of Auguste Rodin in the 2024 Tattersall Gold Cup was a very impressive performance, and very worthy of the hefty 125 RPR allocated to it. The fact that was on ground that would have been plenty quick enough for him, is rather frightening and it makes you wonder what he could do with juice in the ground. Sadly, we are yet to see that this season with both runs on Good and debatably, the latest run was on quicker ground than they officially stated (the time was fast by 4.19s).
With the rain forecast, White Birch should get his favoured conditions a week on Saturday, and he is reportedly very fit. The exact quote from Assistant Trainer, George Murphy was:
“I think we have him very fit now and you’re not going to go into the Irish
Champion
thinking you’re not 100%. He’s as good as I can get him without having a run.”
With regards to his lack of a prep run, George Murphy also admitted that White Birch would
“have probably liked one prep run before Leopardstown but it didn’t work out, the ground was very quick”.
It’s a risk to come here without a prior run, but it would potentially have been more of a risk to run White Birch on unsuitably fast ground, so I’m just pleased connections played it cautiously. However, given that he lacks a recent run, and we are relying on the weather forecast being accurate, I’m only prepared to play half stakes here. At the end of the day, if the forecast rain falls, you won’t see anywhere near 10/1 for White Birch on the day, even without a recent run.
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