Key Points
- My betting tip has excuses for his big Flat Handicap runs
- His trainer has an excellent record at Newcastle
- If he gets in, he’ll be right at the bottom of the weights
For today’s betting tip I’m looking at the antepost market for a race at the end of the month. That race is the £150,000 Northumberland Plate up at Newcastle. If connections commit to coming here with the horse, and he gets in, I think he has an outstanding chance. Not only that, he’ll be a fraction of his current price on the day of the race. That’s why I’m keen to move early before everybody else piles in.
Betting advice
- Saturday 28 June Newcastle - 2025 Northumberland Plate -
Zanndabad
@ 33/1 (4 places) -
Antepost 0.5pt each way
Back Zanndabad with William Hill for a superior price
If you are looking to place an early bet on Zanndabad, I recommend doing so with William Hill. Several bookmakers are offering early prices for the Northumberland Plate, and generally have Zanndabad priced at around 20/1. However, William Hill offers superb value with a price of 33/1! That’s not the end of the value though, if you set up a new account and
bet £10, they’ll give you £30 of free bets
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Tony Martin can repeat his 2008 success in this race
Last year, Cathy O'Leary won the Northumberland Vase with Alphonse Le Grande. However, she was only standing in for trainer Tony Martin, who was serving a suspension at the time. It looks as if he has his eyes on the bigger prize this year with Zanndabad and I think he has a huge chance. In this article, I’ll be breaking down why I think that.
Zanndabad has been running well with excuses in big Flat Handicaps
Zanndabad has four victories on the Flat but they all came from his days in France. He is zero from six in the UK and Ireland, but he’s had excuses for more than one of the defeats.
For me, 1m 6f is too sharp a trip for him, so the first and last of his six runs can have a line drawn through them.
The second run was in the Sky Bet Stayers’ Handicap at York over 2m. Ryan Moore was booked to ride and he was making headway against the far rail from over 3f out, but he was short of room 2f out and slightly hampered over 1f out.
The next run was when he finished third in the Chester Cup. He raced in rear from his draw in Stall 10 and he was denied a clear run over 2f out. Richard Kingscote switched him right over 1f out where he made rapid headway and went third inside the final 110 yards. He was a huge eye-catcher and may well have won with a clear run. He certainly finished full of running.
His fourth start came in the Ascot Stakes over 2m 4f, which was the longest trip he’s ever faced. He travelled into the race superbly with 2f to go and he looked to have a huge chance. He reached third but then the gas tank emptied and he weakened from the 1f pole to finish sixth.
The other run was the Irish Cesarewitch where he raced towards the rear. He made headway, but he was waiting for room over 2f out. He eventually found the gap he needed and ran on well inside the final furlong, but he was left with too much to do by the time he got out.
So to recap, two of the six runs were over an inadequate trip. Three of the runs he was short of room and/or hampered. Finally, he didn’t stay 2m 4f in the Ascot Stakes. Therefore, I feel he’s had excuses for all of his UK & Ireland runs to date. I think he has a big Flat race in him and I think the Northumberland Plate could be it.
Tony Martin has an excellent record at Newcastle
In order to get a full and accurate picture, we need to factor in Tony Martin’s runners under Cathy O’Leary’s name whilst he served his suspension last year.
Overall he has had two wins from five runners (40%) at Newcastle, which is very eye-catching. Those two wins were big ones too. In 2008, Tony Martin won the Northumberland Plate with Arc Bleu, then last year, he won the Northumberland Vase with Alphonse Le Grande.
Tony knows what it takes to win this race and he has entered Zanndabad for it. For me, this is a logical fit for the horse. I cannot see the reason for going for an alternative like the Ascot Stakes again, when they know now he doesn’t stay the 2m 4f trip. If Tony decides to come here, it will be because he thinks Zannbadad has a serious chance.
As it stands, 84 horses have been entered in the 2025 renewal of the Northumberland Plate. However, only a maximum of 20 can be in the final line up on the day. Therefore, many will be left disappointed as they fail to make the cut.
At the time of writing, Zanndabad sits number 23 on the list, with the same rating of 93 as number 22, which is Who’s Glen. Zanndabad will need a couple of those above him in the weights to relinquish their entries. I think this is likely to occur with horses intending to head to the Ascot Stakes instead, like East India Dock for example.
If Zanndabad can get in, he would carry just 8st 11lb here, which would be a fantastic racing weight. If the horses at the top of the weights come out, all of the weights will shift up but even then, he shouldn’t be left with too much to carry on the day.
Lurking around the bottom of the handicap, I think Zanndabad can be extremely dangerous in this big race. If he makes the cut, I would be shocked if he didn’t see plenty of market support, and I’m sure he wouldn’t be going off anywhere near the current 33/1.
Can Zanndabad get his big day in the sun on the Flat?
When considering all of the elements, I feel 33/1 is far too big for Zanndabad and there is fantastic value in that price. As mentioned, I can see him being well supported as we get closer to the race, so I want to get in early.
He has been knocking on the door in some big Handicaps and while he will be reliant on luck in running, which is far from guaranteed, he is due some! But if things do go right for him, I think this could be his big day in the sun, and I feel he will relish the stiff 2m test around Newcastle that the Northumberland Plate presents.
There is a risk that Zanndabad won’t run, which is always a caveat for antepost betting. Tony could decide to run him elsewhere, or he could simply fail to make the final 20 runners, if those above him stand their ground. However, that extra risk is rewarded in terms of a bigger price.
At 33/1, I’m more than happy to take the chance, but I’ll be limiting this early bet to half stakes. After all, we can always get more stuck in nearer the time, this is just to take advantage of the 33/1 on offer.
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