Key Points
- Today’s betting tip has exceptional form over intermediate trips on Good ground
- His trainer is hunting prize money for the Trainer’s Championship
- A poor jump let him down last time out, but he can bounce back here
For today’s betting tip, we head up to Perth in Scotland for Day 1 of the three-day Perth Festival. Here my selection will take his chances in the Novices' Limited Handicap Chase over 2m 4f. I think he is much better than he showed us last time out, and with conditions in his favour today, he should run a massive race.
He is trained by Dan Skelton, who is after every penny of prize money he can get his hands on, and I think this horse can help him towards his goal of becoming UK Champion Trainer, as he tries to fend off the master that is Willie Mullins.
Betting advice
- 14:18 Perth -
Next Left
@5/1 (3 places) -
0.5pt each way
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Next Left can give Dan Skelton a leg up at Perth!
Next Left faces a 6-7 hour journey up to Scotland. It’s a brutal 350-400 mile trip just to get there from Dan Skelton’s base in Alcester, so with a 700-800 mile round ahead, you would definitely want him to bring in some prize money for you!
With his ideal conditions today, I think he has a fantastic chance of doing just that, and making the endeavour worthwhile for his connections. In this article I’ll be breaking down the logic behind my advice to back Next Left, so you can fully understand my way of thinking.
Take the form book for Next Left and limit his runs to two key factors. Firstly, when the ground has been Good. Secondly, when he’s been running over intermediate trips i.e. 2m 3.5f to 2m 4.5f. If you do this, his form figures read 211423.
That is six runs with all bar one seeing him finish in the first three, and two of them seeing him win. Even in the race where he was denied a top three finish, he was only denied in the final strides, finishing fourth.
Those six runs have produced RPRs of 112, 116, 126, 117, 126 and 117 and he runs tomorrow off a mark of 114. The 112 performance was over Hurdles, so you could arguably remove that one. The average performance over fences when he has the right conditions (good ground and an intermediate trip) is therefore 120.4, which would see him with 6.4lb up his sleeve. That makes him very competitive here, and on his best form, he would have 12lb in hand, and that would see him very hard to beat.
With Dan Skelton pushing for the Trainer’s Championship, every penny is crucial!
At the time of writing, Dan Skelton leads the battle for the UK Trainer’s Championship. His 173 winners have amassed a total of £3,273,403 in prize money. However, despite only producing 33 winners, Willie Mullins sits right on his tail at £3,220,705 due to his many Grade 1 victories as well as other big race wins such as the Grand National and Scottish Grand National.
Despite having a lead in excess of £50,000, Dan will be up against it to repel Willie Mullins due to the incredible fire power that he has at his disposal. Especially when you look at the entries for the Jump Finale at Sandown on Saturday. It’s safe to say Willie is throwing everything at it, including the kitchen sink, in a bid to retain his title.
As a result, every win is crucial for Dan whether it’s a big Saturday winner, or a midweek one up at Perth! Dan and Willie will trade blows as they both try to win the title, but you know that Dan’s runners will be giving it absolutely everything. Let’s just say Dan is a shrewd operator when it comes to Handicaps and that isn’t always the case… We know that we’ll get a run for our money with Next Left because of the bigger picture, and besides that, I think he has a great each way chance.
Without a mistake three from home, he’d have gone very close!
Last time out at Fontwell, Next Left was disappointing. He didn’t help his chances by jumping to the right throughout the race. Despite that, he disputed the lead from the seventh fence, but he lost his position after making a bad mistake three out. He had every right to throw the towel in after that shuddering mistake and most horses would have. However, he really impressed me with his attitude as he dug in, rallied and went third again on the run-in.
If it wasn’t for that mistake at the third last, he would have finished much closer to the winner than the 10 lengths he was beaten by. Also, with the way he rallied, the extra furlong should help him today.
Another thing I noticed about that last race was that Next Left drifted out to 11/1 in the market, so perhaps they had another day in mind for him? Hopefully that day is today, and it will be interesting to see how he fares in the betting market this time.
Can Next Left record a third victory over fences?
Considering all of the elements, I think Next Left has a cracking each way chance and he is well worth a bet at an each way price. He has ideal conditions today with the Good ground and the intermediate trip. We also know he’ll be trying, as every penny counts for Dan Skelton at this stage of the Trainer’s Championship battle.
He’s gone close off a mark as high as 120, so this mark of 114 is certainly within his scope. As highlighted in the previous section, he would have finished closer last time out if it wasn’t for a jumping mistake, and even with that, he still finished third off a 2lb higher mark. What I also like is that he has form in the book over 3m. Back in October 2024, he was second over the staying trip, and while he didn’t fully convince over 3m, he stayed well enough.
Perth is a flat and sharp course, with a long home straight where they often kick on too soon, so you need a horse with plenty of stamina to ensure you get home and he has that box ticked. At the very least, Next Left has a great chance of landing some place money for Dan Skelton, but I genuinely think he could win this, and add a very crucial £7,921.50 to the pot for Dan.
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