Key Points
- My Day 2 betting tip looks well handicapped off his current mark
- He had excuses for his last two runs, so I’d forgive those
- His Cheltenham form has worked out and he could be above this level
We head over to Punchestown today for Day 2 of the 2025 Festival. My betting tip looks very well handicapped, and his November form from Cheltenham has worked out strongly, so I think you can forgive his last two runs. His trainer knows how to plot one for a Handicap and poor runs are often easy to forgive with his runners.
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Betting advice
- 14:30 Punchestown -
Hamsiyann
@ 8/1 (6 places) -
0.5pt each way
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Hamsiyann is classier than 0-120 company
Hamsiyann didn’t fire in his last two races. However, between his Cheltenham win in November, and his Flat form, I think he’s better than this level of opposition - hopefully he can prove that today! His trainer is one of the shrewdest operators out there when it comes to landing a nice pot in a Handicap, so let’s hope it’s today he has in mind!
Personally, I’d draw a line through Hamsiyann’s last two runs. Here I’ll explain why I think that, and tell you why I like him for today’s race. Read on and find out more!
Hamsiyann looks very well handicapped!
There is much debate about converting Flat ratings to Jumps ratings. In theory, you simply cannot do it, and the variance between how the ability of a horse compares in the two disciplines can be wild. Many would argue that horses will typically be 35lb to 45lb higher over Jumps than they will be on the Flat. However, if you see a horse that has a much smaller gap than that, they could have plenty more to come over Jumps. Hamsiyann looks to be one of those, with just 26lb between his Flat and Jumps ratings.
Like I said, this is a contentious topic as some horses are simply better on the Flat than they are over Jumps. Some are simply no good at jumping. If you cannot jump, you’ll never be successful over obstacles, regardless of how good an engine you’ve got under the hood.
Hamsiyann showed at Cheltenham that he is capable over Jumps, and I think there he can progress in this discipline. He hasn’t built on his Cheltenham win yet, but I’m pretty confident that he will - hopefully today. That Cheltenham form has worked out extremely well too, which I’ll discuss shortly.
You can forgive his last two runs, he’s better than them
His latest form figures of ninth and 13th, at Musselburgh and Aintree respectively, will put many people off Hamsiyann. However, I think those performances were too bad to be true. The first was over 3m, and perhaps he simply doesn’t stay that far. The latter was over 2m 0.5f on a flat track and I didn’t feel it was enough of a test for him.
His win at Cheltenham came over 2m 5f, and he reverts back to an intermediate trip of 2m 3.5f here. This may still be a touch on the short side for him, but it would certainly be far more suitable than those last two distances. This particular race has the potential to be run at a frantic pace, with a field of 25 runners, and that could set it up perfectly for him. We know he stays further, so it all depends on whether he can stick with them in the earlier stages.
For some context on Hamsiyann’s performances, he ran to a RPR of 118 at Cheltenham, and his next two runs were 97 and 76. For me, that is simply too bad to be true and I’d ignore them. If he had run to something like 110 (a bit below par) I’d be more concerned, but these are so low that I don’t give them much weight. It’s also notable that he was badly hampered on the turn before the first at Aintree, and considering he was already running over an inadequate trip, that wouldn’t have helped his chances at all.
As touched upon earlier, his Cheltenham win in November looks very good in hindsight. The one who came second that day was an Olly Murphy-trained horse called Long Draw. Long Draw won next time out at Cheltenham before Christmas, then won again at the April meeting, off a 10lb higher mark than when Hamsiyann beat him. Wonderful Eagle was back in third that day. He finished third on his next start too, before winning at Newbury. Wyenot won a Listed race on her next start and has run well in two Graded and Listed races since.
All of this suggests to me that it was a very strong race. The handicapper raised Hamsiyann 10lb for that victory, from a mark of 111 to 121, and that may have been viewed as harsh at the time. However, with the way his form has worked out since, it doesn’t look too bad at all now. Even more so when you consider he has dropped 4lb for his latest run, which seems him running off just 117 now - just 6lb higher than his Cheltenham win in November. James Smith has been booked to ride today, and he can claim 2lb in the race conditions, which means Hamsiyann effectively runs off 115, carrying 11st 7lb.
Can Hamsiyann bounce back to winning ways?
Considering all of the points, I think there is a huge chance that Hamsiyann bounces back to winning ways here at Punchestown. As already mentioned, he had excuses for his last two races, so between the Cheltenham form, and his subsequent mark drop, he looks very well handicapped in here.
To be rated 91 on the Flat, you need to be a classy animal, so I believe Hamsiyann is better than 117 over Hurdles. His rivals here are rated between 109 and 120, and I feel he is above this level of opposition, with the ability to blow them away, despite giving weight away to half of them.
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