Key Points
- My Day 3 betting tip looks very well treated, especially off a 2lb lower Irish mark
- He will be coming here fresher than most after falling in his only run since January
- My selection remains unexposed due to his fall, which will help him here
We are back for another look at Punchestown today for Day 3 of the 2025 Festival. We backed today’s betting tip at Aintree, but sadly he departed the race early due to a fall. However, he remains unexposed as a result of that mishap, and I think he can capitalise on his 2lb lower mark on the other side of the Irish Sea. It is always a worry backing one after a fall, but if they’re happy to send him over to Punchestown, then I’m happy to back him.
If this is your first time here, welcome! I usually post four articles every week, which range from betting tips to big race trends. Occasionally, I’ll also bring you antepost tips too, with my most recent articles covering antepost picks for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and the 2026 Grand National.
For this week though, I’m covering the 2025 Punchestown Festival and bringing you betting tips for today, tomorrow and Saturday. So keep tuning in for those.
Betting advice
- 16:15 Punchestown -
Bill Joyce
@ 8/1 (6 places) -
0.75pt each way
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Bill Joyce can get redemption back in his homeland
Whilst Bill Joyce is trained in Cheltenham, he is Irish-bred and his trainer is also a native of Castletownroche, County Cork in Ireland. Hopefully the return to their homeland will bring more success. I think there is every chance that will be the case, and he seems overpriced at 8/1, especially with a generous six places on offer.
In this article, I’ll break down the reasons for why I think he is a good bet today, and there are plenty of them!
He looks very well treated off this Irish mark of 134!
I thought Bill Joyce was very well handicapped when rated 136 at Aintree, so I’m even happier that he runs here off just 134! He is a Point-to-Point winner, dual bumper winner and is yet to be out of the first three in his completed starts over Hurdles. Some of that form also looks pretty strong too.
He won the Winter Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) at Sandown in December beating Quebecois. That form was franked at Ayr with the Paul Nicholls-trained gelding winning in impressive fashion by five lengths. That was off a handicap mark of 131 and Bill Joyce races here off just 3lb higher! Bill Joyce then tackled the Challow Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) at Newbury and bumped into The New Lion and Wendigo.
The New Lion went on to win the Turners’ Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) at the Cheltenham Festival and Wendigo ran respectably to finish fifth in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) at the same meeting. Interestingly the horse in fourth that day, Regent’s Stroll, was a close second in the 2m 4f Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Aintree behind Honesty Policy, who was himself second to Jasmin De Vaux in yesterday’s 3m Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at this Punchestown Festival. So his form is continuously getting boosts.
The New Lion is 159, Wendigo is 143, Regent’s Stroll is 143, Quebecois is rated 140 and yet Bill Joyce gets in here off just 134. That looks very lenient to me, especially considering he beat the latter pair off level weights and quite convincingly too. I thought the British handicapper got it wrong with 136 but for the Irish handicapper to let him in off 134 looks crazy. The British have already notched a few wins at this meeting, and I think the Irish handicapper may well have handed them another one.
With just one run since January, which he didn’t even complete, he’ll be fresher than his rivals
The headache that Punchestown often causes punters is trying to predict which horses are going to be feeling the effects of long hard seasons. We have already seen numerous short priced favourites being turned over such as Kopek Des Bordes, Ballyburn, Fact To File and Seo Linn. We also saw something similar at Sandown with the likes of Jonbon being turned over by Il Etait Temps.
Now Bill Joyce has been on the go since early November but after four runs between then and the 25 January, they gave him a break of 70 days to freshen him up ahead of Aintree. Now, with the fact he fell at Aintree when tackling the eighth fence, he didn’t have a hard race there. As a result, I’m hoping he’ll be far fresher than some of these that have tackled numerous big races in the Spring. For example, one like Park Of Kings has been to both Cheltenham and Aintree.
We do have to take it on trust that he didn't suffer any negative effects from his fall. However, if they’re happy to send him over to Punchestown to take his chance, then I’m happy to follow their judgement and back him. Whilst this isn’t as valuable as the Aintree race, this is a €50,000 race with €29,500 to the winner, so it is still a lovely pot to win!
He remains unexposed and can get redemption for his Aintree fall here
The one blessing from the Aintree fall is that he remains completely unexposed. He was travelling well when he fell at the eighth and it was far too far out to tell what could have happened. As a result, whatever potential he has remains under wraps. If you draw a line through his Aintree run as a result, this is his first try at 3m, this is his first try in handicap company and as already mentioned, his mark of 134 looks very lenient.
Deep Cave went up 6lb for winning that Aintree race and Bill Joyce actually comes here 2lb lower. So whilst it could be a stretch to say it is a blessing in disguise, the fall has certainly only enhanced his chances of winning this race instead.
Jonjo O’Neill knows how to win over here as well, having recorded six wins at the track with a further 15 finishing in the first four. Being an Irish man, I’m sure he’d love to have a winner at Punchestown and hopefully he can achieve that again with Bill Joyce.
Can Bill Joyce land these Listed honours?
Considering all of the elements, I think Bill Joyce has an outstanding chance of being involved at the finish of this Listed Handicap Hurdle and I believe with the necessary luck in running that he can win this. He is well-handicapped, and he’s unexposed over the 3m trip. In Handicap company, he should be fresher than many here and as a six-year-old, he has every right to continue improving.
Now as I touched on before, I’m always conscious of backing a horse who fell last time out. So whilst they are happy to send him over, and I’m happy to back him, I have reduced the stake down slightly to 0.75pt each way. This reflects the risk that the fall could have left its mark on Bill Joyce. Hopefully it will have had a positive effect instead and he’ll stay upright this time around.
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