Key Points
- My Day 4 betting tip is a double and I cannot see either of these two getting beaten!
- The first leg sees a mare taking on opponents that she has simply brushed aside this season
- The second leg sees a generational talent looking for a win and I think he’ll get it
Once again, we return to Punchestown for another spectacular day of racing action. While it’s not usually my style, I’m playing a short-priced double today, as I simply cannot see either of these horses being beaten. Overall, they are far superior to their rivals and all they need to do is simply put their best foot forward… and stay upright of course!
Things are really hotting up at Punchestown as the week progresses, and you may have noticed that my betting tips have focused solely on this exciting annual Festival. I typically travel around a bit more, and bring betting tips from a variety of courses, but this week is exceptional. To vary the pace a little, I sometimes post content covering big race trends, and I’m also quite into antepost picks too.
My two most recent antepost articles remain relevant as they are for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and 2026 Grand National, so those horses will not run until March and April next year. But make sure you check them out sooner rather than later to take advantage of their double-figure early prices.
Betting advice
My recommendation for today, is a
2pt Double @ 2/1
- 16:50 Punchestown -
Dinoblue
- 18:40 Punchestown -
Constitution Hill
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This pair have the ability to blow their rivals away
As touched upon already, short-priced multiples are not typically my style. I tend to look for value at the opposite end of the market and I also stick to singles usually. However, there is definitely a time and a place for all styles of betting, and I feel today is the right time for a short-priced double like this one.
But first, allow me to explain why I think both of these horses will win their respective races today.
Dinoblue has already put her main rivals in their place
The ratings tell the story here, with Dinoblue sitting at least 9lb superior to her nearest rival, Allegorie De Vassy, and even giving away 6lb to her, she is still 3lb well in. Brides Hill is rated 10lb inferior, and only receives 4lb here, which makes the gap even bigger at 6lb. The rest of the field are rated 140, 124 and 128, so they have an absolute mountain to climb to worry Dinoblue.
It is also worth noting that Dinoblue has already beaten Allegorie De Vassy twice this season. She beat her at Naas, giving her the same 6lb, and then she beat her again at the Cheltenham Festival giving her 5lb. In the same race at Cheltenham, Brides Hill was beaten 8.5 lengths by Dinoblue when receiving 2lb, and while she gets double that today, it’s unlikely to be enough for her to bridge the gap.
There are never any guarantees that horses will run to form - they are animals after all, not machines! However, if Dinoblue does run to her expected form today, she will be incredibly hard to beat. She is two from two against the mares this campaign, and I think she’ll make it an easy three from three here.
Constitution Hill can make it third time lucky and prove he’s the best 2m Hurdler around
It has been a painful spring for Constitution Hill’s connections and fans. He was on the comeback trail this season after a 366 day absence, and he got off to a good start by beating Lossiemouth in the Christmas Hurdle. Neither of them were at their peak that day, but it was good to see him get the job done and put something down to build on.
On his next start, he ran in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham, which Lossiemouth swerved. He won that comfortably, but gave everyone a scare when he made a bad mistake at the last. He simply seemed to take his eye off the ball for a second, but went on to win the race in a canter. However, whilst it confirmed he was in full working order, it wasn’t a race of much substance, with his rivals rated far inferior to him, even when he was giving weight away to them all.
He then went to the Cheltenham Festival for the Champion Hurdle, looking to regain his crown. The money poured in as the anticipation built near the off, and as the flag was dropped, he was 1/2F. However, disaster struck at four out when he came down. Despite the pretty short gap between Cheltenham and Aintree this year, the Henderson team and Michael Buckley decided to send him to Aintree. Nico de Boinville got him short of room heading towards three out, and was forced to switch wide. However, he was going easily, and just over one length down as he was coming to the second last. BUT, he got it all wrong and ended up on the ground… heartbreak yet again.
At this point the team could easily have said enough, and turned him away for the summer. However, he must have been pleasing them, and is evidently none the worse for his falls, as they have decided to send him here to Punchestown to take on State Man on his home soil. Now I love State Man and he is a superb horse, both in terms of ability and consistency. However, he’s not on the same level as Constitution Hill when they’re both on their A game. We saw this in the 2023 Champion Hurdle, where Constitution Hill beat State Man by nine lengths in a canter.
The rest of the field here are between 23lb to 38lb inferior to Constitution Hill and shouldn’t cause him any issues. The case here is simply that, the biggest challenge to Constitution Hill is himself. If he jumps his hurdles and gets around in one piece, he should win this and will make 10/11 look like a gift. He does need to prove he can do that, but I have little doubt that he will. I also think that James Bowen can help him a great deal here, and it’s a fantastic opportunity for James in the absence of Nico de Boinville, who is out of the equation through injury.
Can these two big guns assert their dominance?
I think this pair are a class above their opposition and barring mishaps, they’ll both win their respective races easily. Punchestown can be a graveyard for favourites as it comes at the very end of the National Hunt season. But, I don’t think either of these horses have had particularly hard seasons.
Dinoblue won her race at Cheltenham fairly comfortably and her task was made easier by Allegorie De Vassy departing at the last. However, the latter was beaten already when she went down.
Constitution Hill didn’t manage to reach the business end of his races at Cheltenham and Aintree, so he didn’t have to dig deep in either of them. Likewise, he didn’t have a hard race in his first two starts at Kempton and Cheltenham, so he should be relatively fresh and ready for today’s race.
Ultimately, I think the biggest threat to these two are themselves. As long as they turn up and perform to the best of their ability, they should win their respective races. Constitution Hill has to prove he can stay upright, but it really would be freakish for him to fall three times in a row, having never fallen previously in his career. I think that come 18:45 today, the 2/1 available for the double will look exceptional value.
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My Discord members enjoyed great success during April!
Whilst I post four articles each week for betting.co.uk providing free betting tips, the majority of my selections are exclusive to my Discord members.
The Discord members have enjoyed an incredibly profitable month including 10/1 and 28/1 winners earlier this week over at the Punchestown Festival.
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