Key Points
- Check out my betting tip for the 2025 Ascot Gold Cup
- My selection finished ahead of his stablemate in the Long Distance Cup
- This horse is underestimated at his current price, offering plenty of value
My betting tip for today runs in the Gold Cup over 2m4f. There are a number of reasons I think that this seven-year-old is underestimated here and I’ll break them all down for you in this article. To me, he looks like a great value each way pick, and is definitely worth a bet.
If you’re new to my betting.co.uk articles, I usually post four articles most weeks. These are mostly betting tips, but you’ll also come across big race trends and antepost picks too. Speaking of the latter, I have already put up antepost selections for both the 2025 Northumberland Plate, 2026 Cheltenham Festival and the 2026 Grand National, so if you haven’t already seen those, make sure you take a look. Lastly, I will be posting a betting tip tomorrow and Saturday as the final two days of Royal Ascot, so make sure you tune back in for those.
Betting Advice
- 16:20 Royal Ascot (Thursday) -
Sweet William
@ 10/1 (3 places) -
0.75pt each way
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Unibet is offering 10/1 for Sweet William with 3 places. This is a better price than the vast majority of the market, and as well as value on the price, they have a generous sign up deal too. If you
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Sweet William can show he’s no pushover
With Kyprios sadly being retired earlier this season, the Ascot Gold Cup is looking for a new champion. While there are a couple of unexposed four-year-old horses looking to fill his boots, I think a more proven horse like Sweet William could be the answer.
Sweet William was third in this race last year
With a race like the Gold Cup, you often see the same faces coming back time and time again, especially those who have performed well previously. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, we saw Stradivarius win three renewals in a row. He then finished fourth and third in 2021 and 2022 respectively. The 2022 renewal was won by Kyprios and whilst he was absent from the 2023 renewal, he came back to win again in 2024. He was also antepost favourite to win a third renewal but sadly he has since been retired due to an injury sustained earlier this season.
Just to hammer this point home, we have seen many multiple winners over the years. Back in the 70s, Sagaro won three renewals. We have also had twenty horses achieve the status of dual winners. The pinnacle of them all though was Yeats, who managed to win this race four years in a row from 2006 to 2009.
All of this brings me back to the fact that Sweet William was third in this race last year and I think he can produce another big run today. Last year, Sweet William only found Kyprios and stablemate Trawlerman too strong. As already mentioned, Kyprios is out of this year’s renewal. It is also worth noting that the first two home raced much more prominently than Sweet William, who was held up in rear.
In my opinion, he raced there because there were stamina concerns, but hopefully, he put those concerns to bed. If he is ridden more prominently this time around, it will mean less ground to make up at the business end. I think he can at least finish closer to Trawlerman, and potentially even reverse the form, and if he can do that, he has every chance of winning this year’s renewal.
My selection finished ahead of stablemate Trawlerman in the Long Distance Cup
So, Trawlerman finished one place better than Sweet William in last year’s renewal. The pair then went their separate ways, but clashed again in the Long Distance Cup at this track in October. While that was back down to a trip of 1m 7.5f, and on softer ground, Sweet William reversed the placings, finishing 1.5 lengths ahead of Trawlerman. Again highlighting the quality of Kyprios, he was the first home again, but it was the same three names from the Gold Cup coming to the fore once again.
Sweet William is a faster horse than Trawlerman, but Trawlerman is a stronger stayer. I expect Trawlerman to make this year’s race a real test by setting a strong pace at the front. This time, I want to see a more positive ride from Rob Havlin. I want him to have faith that Sweet William will get home, and ride him like he will. If they sit on Trawlerman’s tail and have one crack at him late, I think he will have the speed to get past him. I think he used too much energy trying to come from the back of the field last year, which adversely affected his finishing effort.
Sweet William is underestimated at his current price, offering plenty of value
In my opinion, there is not a great deal to choose between Trawlerman and Sweet William. If somebody wanted to argue Trawlerman was the more likely winner, I wouldn’t necessarily argue with them. However, Trawlerman is 5/2 and Sweet William is 10/1 - I think that price is quite insulting for Sweet William, he wouldn’t look out of place at half of that price, if not even shorter.
I think a large portion of this value is created by the market putting a lot of faith into the potential of Illinois and Candelari, who enter this division as up-and-coming four-year-olds. However, whilst they must be respected, they are completely unproven over this extreme distance and there is no guarantee they’ll stay the trip.
Illinois is unraced beyond 1m 7f and after his St Leger second, they even said he could come back down to 1m4f. Candelari is a Group 1 winner over 1m7.5f in France, however, the French races are usually run at a much slower tempo before becoming a sprint for the line. With Trawlerman likely to set a good gallop in front, I think Candelari could get found out, especially over 2m 4f. At best prices of 7/4 and 7/2, I’d certainly be taking on the pair of four-year-olds.
Can Sweet William prove to be Gosden’s number one?
When you consider all of the points made, I think Sweet William is a great each way bet at the current price of 10/1. I’d rate his stablemate, Trawlerman, as the biggest danger to his chances of winning. I’d be keen to take on Illinois and Candelari at their short prices with a huge question mark over their stamina. I’d also have stamina concerns for Dubai Future, but at least you’re getting 40/1 to find out with him. I don’t feel Wonder Legend and Yashin are up to this level yet and on the flipside, I think the best days are behind Coltrane.
I’d have Trawlerman the favourite around 7/4, Sweet William around the 3/1 mark and the two four-year-olds just a shade bigger than him. For me, this is a two horse race and if the youngsters can stay, it becomes a four horse race. If they both stay and live up to the hype and Trawlerman runs his race, we could potentially be a frustrating fourth.
However, Sweet William has never been out of the first three in his 16 starts to date and I fully expect him to make that 17 today. With a positive ride, I don’t think it’s unrealistic to think he could topple Trawlerman. With all things taken into account, I’m trimming the stake down to 0.75pt each way, and I feel that Sweet William is well worthy of that.
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