Key Points
- My betting tip for today is extremely well-handicapped based on his older form
- My selection had excuses for his last few runs - perhaps this race is part of a plan?
- The same trainer landed a nice prize with a similar ‘out of form’ type at the Aintree Festival
Today’s betting tip is for Day 1 of the Scottish Grand National Festival at Ayr. I think this horse is incredibly well-handicapped based on his old form, and he has had excuses for his most recent runs. He comes into this race under the radar, and looks massively overpriced, making him superb value for an each way bet.
If you are not already familiar with my content, I post around four articles each week here at Betting.co.uk. Two of my earlier articles are sure to be of interest to you, as they include antepost betting tips for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and 2026 Grand National, so make sure that you check those out.
For your weekend enjoyment, I’ll reveal my selection for Day 2 of the Scottish Grand National meeting, plus another betting tip for Sunday’s action, so make sure you tune back in for both of those!
Betting advice
- 14:40 Ayr -
Pounding Poet
@ 20/1 (4 places) -
0.75pt each way
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Pounding Poet to pound his rivals into the ground!
My betting tip for today is Pounding Poet, who is a nine-year-old gelding trained by Tom Lacey in Herefordshire. The horse and his team undertake a round trip of more than 700 miles to compete in this race, and I believe Pounding Poet can make it worthwhile for them!
If you were to look at his recent form figures, you’d expect Pounding Poet to be a 20/1 shot, but if you care to dig a little deeper, which I have, you can make a very compelling case for him. If he has retained some of his ability, and comes here fit, I seriously believe he can outrun his odds and may even go off significantly shorter.
If you look back through his form, Pounding Poet was once rated 135 and achieved a peak RPR of 134. That career best performance came at the 2023 Aintree Festival when he was a strong-finishing second behind Dan Skelton’s West Balboa. He was sent off 50/1 that day, most likely due to his less-conspicuous trainer, and he massively outperformed his odds. That was no fluke either, as earlier in that same campaign, he won at Uttoxeter off a mark of 131.
Fast forward two years from that fantastic Aintree Festival performance, and he is now rated just 117. That is a whole stone (14lb) below his last winning mark and an incredible 18lb below his peak rating. With his proven ability and his current mark, you simply have to give Pounding Poet a chance in this race. He is certainly handicapped to win, assuming his ability and enthusiasm remain intact.
He has had excuses and this could be a long term plan!
So why has Pounding Poet dropped from a mark of 135 to just 117? Well, the form figures following his second at Aintree read 06PP46, so on paper at least, the significantly reduced mark is appropriate. However, I don’t think it’s quite that straightforward…
His next run was too bad to be true (RPR of just 88) and I’d say that was because he had a hard race at Aintree. He is best when fresh, and it was less than a month from one to the other. After a 153-day break, they sent him Novice Chasing, which he clearly did not enjoy, coming sixth of seven on his Chasing debut, then pulled up on his next start.
They switched him back to Hurdles at Wincanton next time out, but he pulled up again. Interestingly, he was given a wind operation after that run, suggesting that he showed some signs of a breathing issue during that run. He returned to Doncaster a couple of months later, but once again he failed to fire. However, I’d be somewhat inclined to forgive that run, as he was carrying 12st and running on unsuitably soft ground.
After Doncaster, he wasn’t seen for 357 days, which is a worry, as a long absence like that usually suggests some form of physical issue. Nevertheless he returned to the track at Hereford in February, but over an inadequate 2m 3.5f trip. To my way of thinking, the decision to run him locally, and over that trip, has two potential explanations - to help blow the cobwebs away, and/or to check that the engine under the hood was still in full working order.
Whatever the reason, he has not been seen since. However, he comes to the Scottish Grand National meeting today, back over the 3m trip. As we already know, he can run very well fresh, and he is now very dangerously handicapped. Realistically, just 90% of his old ability would see him competitive and 95% should be sufficient to win this.
I think they may have given him that last run simply to test the waters a little, and when it was clear he had retained his ability, they decided to put him away for a nice race like this one. He wouldn’t have been able to return to the previous Aintree race anyway, as his handicap mark would have dropped too low to get in, but this is a nice £16,000 pot with nearly £8,500 going to the winner, and it would be a lovely race to win with him.
Lacey produced Cruz Control to win at Aintree, Pounding Poet can follow at Ayr
We are relying on Pounding Poet retaining his ability and enthusiasm. Judging from his form in the book, that is quite a stretch. However, you could have said the same about Cruz Control who ran for Tom Lacey at the Aintree Festival. He did win the same race at Aintree in 2024, but his form figures after that were 47P. However, Lacey took him to the Aintree Festival fresh from a 100-day break, and we saw him win the race and clearly back to his original form again.
If Tom Lacey can produce Pounding Poet in a similar style he must have a massive chance. With some horses, you would be concerned that he hasn’t been seen since February, but we know Pounding Poet runs well fresh, in fact, he has won twice after a break of 50+ days, and has also come second on two occasions, including the 2023 Aintree Festival.
Will Pounding Poet be poetry in motion?
All facts considered, I feel Pounding Poet is very underestimated at a price of 20/1. If he was rated 125, or he didn’t have excuses for some of his runs, I could understand the price better. However, rated at 117, and with excuses for his poor runs he looks extremely dangerous, so he could easily cause an upset here.
He runs fresh here over his favoured 3m trip, with ground conditions to suit. We also know that he can handle this big occasion and the bigger field. I’ve also noticed that cheekpieces go on today, and his career best run came when wearing them at Aintree, although this is the first time that they’ve been combined with a tongue tie.
There are many positives in his favour, which has convinced me that he should be at a significantly shorter price. I won’t be at all surprised to see some market support for him as the race gets closer. The negatives are obvious. On paper, his form over the past two years has been poor, he’s returning from an injury this campaign and as a nine-year-old now, he isn’t getting any younger.
However, at a price of 20/1 and after considering both sides, I feel he is well worth an each way bet, especially with the four places on offer. If the old version of Pounding Poet turns up off this mark of 117, we won’t be needing the places, it will just be a question of how far he wins by!
Another Grand National, another wave of bookie bonuses
As we saw ahead of the Aintree Grand National, the bookmakers were battling for your business by offering great sign up offers. This trend continues ahead of the Scottish Grand National meeting and some of the best offers around are listed below.
Try out the RacingGav Discord via a 7 day free trial
I post three or four betting tips every week for Betting.co.uk, along with some feature pieces like big race trends. But the majority of my betting tips are exclusive to members of my Discord server. The community on the Discord is fantastic, and you can get involved in what is effectively a huge group chat of friendly racing fans.
After 11/2, 15/2 and 20/1 winners last week, I have found two more for my members already this week - and that’s despite not putting up any tips for Wednesday or Thursday! You can find out more about my Discord tips over on my X account @RacingGav, but better still, I’m currently offering a
free 7-day trial of my Discord Server, which really is worth a look
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6 hours ago
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