Key Points
- My betting tip for today has excuses for his runs to date
- If drawing a line through his last run, he is improving with every run over fences
- The step back up to 3m is in his favour, he has always looked a Stayer
Today’s betting tip is for Day 2 of the Scottish Grand National Festival up at Ayr. I’m a huge fan of this horse and I think he can put a poor Cheltenham Festival run behind him and continue his prior progression over fences. I have always thought of him as a staying chaser in the making and hopefully back up to three miles, he can show us all that today!
If you haven’t already come across my content for betting.co.uk, I write for them four times a week. In these articles I predominantly provide one betting tip per day/article but I also provide over types of contents such as big race trends. Yesterday’s article saw us back a 20/1 shot - Pounding Poet, who was beaten a quarter of a length in a three way finish but he returned 3.75pts from our 0.75pt Each Way bet. I also have three antepost bets already posted across two different articles - One for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and two for the 2026 Grand National. If you haven’t already seen those, be sure to check them out!
As well as yesterday’s selection and the one for today, I will also have a betting tip for Sunday’s action, so make sure you come back for that!
Betting advice
- 13:43 Ayr -
Pic Roc
@5/1 (3 places) -
0.75pt each way
Bet365 should be your “Pic” of bookmaker for this bet!
At the time of writing, Bet365 are offering the joint best price of 5/1 across the industry with the standard 3 places being paid. However, that isn’t the only reason to be backing Pic Roc with Bet365. and
bet £10, you’ll get £30 in free bets.
This horse is “Roc” solid at Ayr today!
Many people will be put off by Pic Roc’s Cheltenham Festival run judging it on the bare form but there was much more to that run and I’ll explain more on that during this article. In my opinion, he is far better than he showed and if he performs at his best today, he has an exceptional chance in these calmer waters.
Ben Pauling is overdue a winner at Ayr with 2 seconds, 1 third and 1 fourth from his 9 runners that have made the long journey up. I’d fancy Pic Roc’s chances of being the one to end his wait for an Ayr winner!
Pic Roc has had excuses for his runs to date and is subsequently better than he has shown
Here is a summary of Pic Roc’s season ahead of his run at the Cheltenham Festival last month: -
- 11th November 2024 - Carlisle - Fell on chasing debut. However, in my opinion this was a freak incident where he jumped too boldly and couldn’t stick the landing rather than being unable to jump. That is simply more inexperience rather than a lack of scope and he would have learned plenty from it.
- 13th January 2025 - Exeter - Beaten a head by Issam. After his fall at Carlisle he sustained a cut and required time to recover. He was therefore off the track for 63 days. As a result of this, his trainer admitted he was half fit when running here and that was almost certainly the difference between winning and losing, considering the margin of defeat was a head. He certainly looked like the winner for the majority of the race.
- 8th February 2025 - Newbury - Beaten 1.5 lengths by Lord Of Thunder. With the rules at the Cheltenham Festival, Pic Roc required a further run in order to qualify for his intended target. Therefore, Ben Pauling was left with little choice but to turn him out again quicker than ideal in order to meet that requirement. Similar to Exeter he looked the winner of the race but I would say him failing to finish off his race as strongly as he promised to was this time due to him feeling the effects of his previous run.
I then strongly fancied him for Cheltenham and I put him up both for betting.co.uk and for my paying Discord members. However, the starter and the subsequent standing start ruined any chance he had. Over that 2m4.5f trip, he’d have needed to be going well in the early stages to keep in the race and then I fancied him to be staying on powerfully at the business end. However, with the way the start played out, he was in rear and never able to get into any sort of rhythm. The winner Caldwell Potter led throughout and likewise the eventual second and third were prominent throughout as well and that was clearly the place to be. I’d draw a line through that Cheltenham run.
If you draw a line through his last run, he’s progressing with every run!
Progressive horses are your friend as their continued improvement keeps them ahead of the handicapper and ultimately, if you’re ahead of the handicapper, you’ll keep winning races. Let’s take a look through his career to date:
Bumper runs: -
- Uttoxeter -
5th
of 11 - RPR of
102
- Wincanton -
3rd
of 9 - RPR of
105
- Chepstow -
2nd
of 9 - RPR of
105
As you can see, he improved his finishing position with every run and his RPR was at least as good if not better with each run as well.
Hurdle runs: -
- Newbury - 5th of 9 - RPR of
104
- Catterick - 2nd of 8 - RPR of
113
- Ascot - 1st of 9 - RPR of
127
- Sandown - 2nd of 17 - RPR of
131
- Sandown - 2nd of 17 - RPR of
132
Now his hurdles form is slightly different as his finishing position did not improve with every run. However, you have to appreciate that he was tackling tougher races as the season went on. The key point to note here is that his RPR figure increased with each run which reflects that he was improving each time.
Chasing runs: -
- Carlisle - Fell - No RPR
- Exeter - 2nd of 6 - RPR of 138
- Newbury - 2nd of 6 - RPR of 141
- Cheltenham - 13th of 19 - RPR of 120
His chasing runs are interesting to review for two reasons. Firstly, when you look at his final RPR over hurdles of 132. That was then surpassed by his first completed run over fences with 138. That was then beaten once again on his next start with 141. This shows that his improvement hasn’t stopped yet and he is continuing to improve. It also helps to show the fact that his performance at Cheltenham which produced a RPR of 120, is simply too bad to be a true reflection and is best ignored.
At his age of 7, with just three completed starts over fences and also excuses for all of them, I think a mark of 136 underestimates his ability and he could have plenty in hand. Certainly enough in hand to be extremely competitive in these calmer waters than at the Cheltenham Festival.
The step back up to 3m should be perfect for him
This race at Cheltenham was over an intermediate trip of 2m 4.5f around the New Course and that takes plenty of getting. Especially when you have the famous Cheltenham hill to finish the race and that sorts the men from the boys. I was really hopeful that he’d be in touch turning for home and that he'd power past them up the hill. However, sadly the starter depriIfved him of ever being in the race and the hill subsequently became irrelevant sadly.
They now step him back up to 3m at Ayr today and around this flatter track than Cheltenham, he will definitely want this trip. Especially with the ground on the quicker side as they can get away from you here if you’re not careful. I think he has the perfect blend of speed and stamina to be really suited by this test today. Whilst I’m a big fan of Whistle Stop Tour for example, I think he is a future national horse and he could find this trip too sharp. Over this bare three miles around a flat track like Ayr, I think Pic Roc would be too quick for him.
Can Pic Roc bounce back from Cheltenham?
All things considered, I’m prepared to forgive Pic Roc his Cheltenham run and I believe he can bounce back with a bang at Ayr. Not only can he set the record straight for himself but he can also set it straight for his trainer who is hunting for his elusive first win here.
I’m sure Ben and the owners would have been disappointed after the Cheltenham Festival as I know they had very high hopes for Pic Roc there but no matter how good the horse is, you need luck on your side. Sadly that wasn’t the case for them at Cheltenham but let’s hope they have saved up their luck for today and Pic Roc can get his head in front. Baring mishaps, I sincerely believe he can win today and that he has a very bright future! I’d certainly expect him to be hitting the places at least and I would be disappointed if he couldn’t.
Get your free bets ready for the Scottish Grand National!
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