Key Points
- Today’s betting tip runs for a trainer who targets Handicaps
- He should love this quick ground and the 1m trip at this track
- This horse has a lovely racing weight and is officially 5lb in today
We continued a very profitable August with a place yesterday with Dancing In Paris running on from the back of the field to finish fourth. Unfortunately the wide draw was a big inconvenience, as it saw him dropped into the rear of the field rather than closer to the pace. Had he been able to secure a position in midfield, he would have had a massive chance, but sadly he had too much of a mountain to climb. It was a solid start to the Ebor Festival though, and I think we can build on that with today’s selection.
If you’re new to my articles here, I typically produce four per week for betting.co.uk. These are a mixture of daily tips, antepost tips, guides and big race trends. When a big meeting is on, I tend to focus on the daily betting tips and that is the plan for this week. I gave you a betting tip for Day 1 of the Ebor Festival yesterday, today is for Day 2 and then on Friday and Saturday, I’ll have tips for Day 3 and Day 4.
If you are interested in the antepost element, there are a few articles already published. The first is a selection for the
Ebor Handicap this Saturday. I also have picks for the St Leger in September, and the King George VI Chase in December, then the Cheltenham Festival and Aintree Grand National in the Spring of 2026.
Betting advice
- 15:00 York -
Leadman
@ 10/1 (5 places) -
0.5pt each way
Bet365 are offering the best value on Leadman!
At the time of writing, bet365 are offering the joint best price for Leadman at 10/1. In addition to this, they are paying a generous five places on the each way terms. The value doesn’t stop there though, as they have a superb sign up offer for new customers! If you
bet £10, they’ll give you £30 of free bets. A fantastic boost as we head towards a big weekend.
He can be the “Leadman” as they pass the winning post!
I feel Leadman is somewhat underestimated at a price of 10/1. I think he has a huge chance of being extremely competitive in this race and in this article, I’ll show you why.
Leadman runs for a trainer who targets Handicaps at this meeting, including this race
David O’Meara is a trainer to follow when it comes to Handicap races at York. One race that he is particularly worth following for is the Clipper Handicap, as he has an excellent record for this one:
- 2016 - Firmament won the race
- 2017 - Firmament finished third and Bravery finished seventh
- 2018 - Firmament finished third
- 2019 - Firmament finished fourth, So Beloved finished seventh and Waarif finished eighth
- 2020 - Prompting finished fourth, Shelir finished sixth and Orbaan finished seventh
- 2021 - Escobar finished fifth
- 2022 - Blue For You won the race, Escobar finished second, Orbaan finished fourth and Rhoscolyn finished eighth
- 2024 - Mirsky finished second and Bennetot finished fifth
As you can see, he has won two of the last nine renewals, with many other horses going close (at least one in the top five in eight of the last nine renewals). In 2022 he was particularly impressive with the 1-3-4.
He clearly targets this race and he has done so again this year with no less than five horses entered: Leadman, Blue For You, Cerulean Bay, Julia Augusta and Duke’s Command.
Whilst O’Meara fires five at the race, Daniel Tudhope has chosen to ride Leadman, and that is a useful pointer. Daniel Tudhope was aboard both of David O’Meara’s previous winners of the race.
Leadman should love the quick ground and the 1m trip at this track
Judged on RPR, the best four performances of Leadman’s career have all come on Good to Firm ground. Therefore, it’s safe to say these Good to Firm conditions are his optimum. He has previously been declared a non-runner on the day when the going has been Good to Soft, Soft, or Heavy, so they are clearly not keen on his chances when the rain comes.
His latest run and his third last run have been career bests, both run over 7f on Good to Firm ground. In addition to that, he ran on strongly in both races, suggesting that he could enjoy a step up to 1m. I feel that York is a great track to test that theory, as it’s certainly on the sharper end of the scale.
If you look at his pedigree he is by Kingman, who produced his best over 1m, including four Group 1 victories and half a length away from a fifth. Leadman is a brother to 1m winner Baseman (RPR of 100), half-brother to 8.4f-1m 2f winner Georgeville (including Listed, RPR of 112) and his Dam is a sister to the prolific 1m to 1m 2f Group winner Famous Name, and the 1m 2f Listed winner Discipline. So there is every chance Leadman will improve for this step up in trip.
Leadman has a lovely racing weight and is officially 5lb well in today
Leadman’s latest run was over 7f at Newbury, and he raced in rear for the majority of the race. He was going easily with 2f to run and plenty to do. He made good headway from just over 1f out, and when ridden inside the final furlong, he ran on to finish a very close second, being denied by just a head. If the line was a little further back, he would have won. This was a race where the winner was at the front end throughout, and was suited by the way the race developed, so I think Leadman’s performance can even be marked up.
However, that defeat could prove to be a blessing in disguise. If he had won that race, he’d be carrying a 6lb penalty, and racing off a mark of 93. Likewise, if the handicapper had his way, he’d be running off an official mark of 92. However, due to the conditions of this race, he is able to race here off just 87. That is 1lb lower than his latest run, 5lb lower than his official rating, and 6lb lower than it would be if he had won at Newbury.
This bears a strong resemblance to Trefor, who ran in the opening race yesterday. His official mark had risen to 98 following a narrow defeat nine days prior. He raced 5lb well in, and went one better yesterday. With the same 5lb advantage, I think Leadman also has a great chance of going one better here.
Can Leadman enhance David O’Meara’s record in this race?
We must first consider Leadman’s form, and David O’Meara’s record in Handicap races at this meeting, especially in this race. He also has his favoured fast ground, the 1m trip, he is 5lb well in, and has a lovely racing weight of 8st 13lb, all of which suggest he has an exceptional chance today. So much so that he is the choice of Daniel Tudhope over stablemate, and previous winner of the race, Blue For You, or the yard’s other three runners.
As always, we have to consider the negative points. The obvious one is that he only ran five days ago and a quick turnaround carries risks. However, as we saw with Trefor, it can be done (albeit he had nine days rather than four). The other concern I have is that Leadman has unfortunately been drawn out wide in stall 15 and as a general rule, this track favours those drawn low. However, Leadman is a hold up horse anyway, so he is likely to be dropped in regardless of where he is drawn.
Whilst there are counter arguments to the two negatives, there are still two negatives. If it was just one or the other, I’d simply trim the stake down a bit, but as both apply here, I’m going to trim it down to half stakes i.e. 0.5pt each way. If the draw isn’t too much of an inconvenience, and he performs at his best, despite the quick turnaround, he could win this and leave me wishing that I’d had more on. However, I’d rather have too little than too much on a horse when there are a few niggling doubts.
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They enjoyed a very profitable start to August with a treble landing on the very first day of the month at prices of
9/1 (12/1), 7/1 and 5/1!
Since then they have enjoyed further August winners at
13/2, 9/1, 10/1, 3/1, 6/1, 7/1, 12/1 and 18/1
and are well on track for another profitable month!
This follows on nicely from July, which ended with a profit of
+29.239pts!
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