Key Points
- This filly ran a huge race in the King Charles III Stakes (Group 1) at Royal Ascot
- Her latest run at Glorious Goodwood can be forgiven as the ground was against her
- On this sharper track from a favourable low draw, they could struggle to reel her in
We started the Ebor Festival meeting off with Dancing In Paris, who was given too much to do from the rear of the field, and could only run into the places. We saw even more exaggerated tactics with Leadman yesterday, and he could only manage eighth. Today’s betting tip should be right up there with the pace though, so we won’t have any excuses about leaving it too late with this one!
If you’re looking at my articles for the first time, I am the resident horse racing tipster here at Betting.co.uk. I typically produce four articles each week which are mostly daily betting tips. However, I do occasionally produce other types of content as well, including guides, big race trends and antepost selections.
If you enjoy antepost betting, make sure you check out my existing articles as several are still live bets. These include
the Ebor Handicap tomorrow, the St Leger in September and the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day. I have even looked ahead to 2026 for the Cheltenham Festival in March, and the Aintree Grand National in April.
Betting advice
- 15:35 York -
Frost At Dawn
@ 18/1 (4 places) - 0.75pt each way
Betfred has the best price for Frost At Dawn!
At the time of writing, Betfred are offering the joint best price of 18/1 for Frost At Dawn to win. The value doesn’t stop there though, they have a great sign up offer for new customers too. If you
bet £10, you’ll get £50 in free bets. In my opinion, this is the best free bet deal currently available.
Frost at Dawn has the ability to win the Nunthorpe
In a meeting that has largely been dominated by horses at the front end of the field, Frost At Dawn should be in the right place! But there are many more reasons why I think she’s worth a bet today and I’ll break those down in this article.
Frost At Dawn ran a huge race in the King Charles III Stakes (Group 1) at Royal Ascot
I tipped Frost At Dawn to my Discord members at 40/1 for the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot. She massively outran her odds and almost won the race. She was denied by just a neck at the line by American Affair, with the pair pulling a length clear of Regional.
Frost At Dawn led from over 1f out and was only headed inside the final furlong. That was a very smart performance by American Affair, and with the stiff finish at Ascot, you wonder whether she would have held on at a sharper track.
Either way, that was a serious piece of form that produced a RPR of 118. Her jockey that day was Mickael Barzalona, who is flying over from France to take the ride today!
Frost At Dawn’s latest run at Glorious Goodwood can be forgiven as the ground was against her
I believe that Frost At Dawn wants the ground lightning quick to be at her best, and that’s what we saw at Royal Ascot. So, when the rain came at Glorious Goodwood, and the ground softened to “Good to Soft”, she could only manage fourth place.
That said, I think it was still a serious performance to finish fourth, beaten by less than two lengths, considering she didn’t seem to enjoy the ground and it took its toll at the business end of the race.
For her to run to a RPR of 111 on unsuitable ground, she is a seriously good filly. At the end of the day, you cannot blame connections for having a go at the race despite the ground, when the winner picked up £179,990. Even Frost At Dawn collected £16,991.20 for her fourth place finish, so it was far from a wasted journey!
On this sharper track from a favourable low draw, they could struggle to reel Frost At Dawn back in
As a general rule, you want to be drawn low for the sprints at this track, and you want to be racing prominently. Frost At Dawn has a pretty low draw in stall six and she typically races at the front, so we have two boxes ticked.
As touched upon, she was only beaten late on at Royal Ascot, where the stiff finish saw her demise. That may mean American Affair is superior, and if so, there is no shame in that. However, I do wonder whether Frost At Dawn would have made it home in front had the finish been less testing.
Today we get to test that theory out, as York is a sharper test, and the front runners can get away from those held up behind, which should suit our girl. I think she will relish this track, trip and ground today, and if she does, she has a massive chance.
Can Frost At Dawn upgrade her CV to being a Group 1 winner?
In my opinion, whilst this is a deep race at the top level, I think Frost At Dawn is being insulted by a price of 18/1. However, it’s not the first time she’s been underestimated and outperformed her odds. She was sent off at 33/1 over in Dubai as a three-year-old and came out victorious, scooping the £153,846.15 first prize. She also nearly landed the King Georges III Stakes at Royal Ascot at 40/1. Being underestimated is nothing new for Frost At Dawn, and hopefully she can prove them all wrong once again.
I’m really struggling to pick any holes in her chances. I think she is a filly with the ability to compete at this level, which is half of the battle. I think she’ll love this track, trip and ground combination. Her forward going style over 5f is also what works at this track. Mickael Barzalona gave her a cracking ride at Royal Ascot and the fact he is flying over to ride her again (albeit he has two other rides on the card) is a big plus in my eyes.
The only real negative I can see is the fact that she has been pretty busy this season. She has been on the go since March, and this will be her eighth run. Her last two runs have been tough Group 1s, with the second of those coming on softer ground that she didn’t enjoy. Therefore, there is a niggling concern about how many times you can go to the well with her, especially being a filly. As a result of this concern and the fact that you always need luck in these big field sprints, I have trimmed the stake down to 0.75pt each way.
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They enjoyed a very profitable start to August with a treble landing on the very first day of the month at prices of
9/1 (12/1), 7/1 and 5/1!
Since then they have enjoyed further August winners at
13/2, 9/1, 10/1, 3/1, 6/1, 7/1, 12/1, 18/1 and 18/1
and are currently sitting on
+18.354pts
for August to date!
This follows on nicely from July, which ended with a profit of
+29.239pts!
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