Key Points
- Today’s betting tip looks like a Group horse in a Handicap to me!
- He produced a very eye-catching effort over C&D last time, showing he retains ability
- He has a favourable draw in stall three and can challenge sooner
We head into the final day of the Ebor Festival today. Frustratingly, we have hit the woodwork twice, with my tips here as both Dancing In Paris (6/1) and Frost At Dawn (18/1) ran big races, but finished in the places rather than winning. I have tipped 7/1, 12/1, 18/1, 16/1 and 11/1 winners at the meeting over in the Discord, so hopefully that fortune can rub off on today’s bet. I’m very strong on this one, and hopefully we can end the Ebor Festival with a bang!
If you’re new to my articles, I typically post four per week here. They are predominantly free daily betting tips, but I also produce guides, big race trends and antepost selections too. Given that we have had the Ebor Festival this week, all four articles have been daily betting tips covering the prestigious meeting.
If you’re interested in antepost betting, be sure to check out my existing selections, especially my pick for
today's York Ebor Handicap. Elsewhere, you'll also find selections for the St Leger in September, the King George VI Chase in December, the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and the 2026 Grand National. The quicker you back them, the more likely you are to enjoy the best value!
Betting advice
- 17:20 York -
Erzindjan
@ 6/1 (4 places) -
1pt each way
Betfred is my bookie pick for today!
At the time of writing, Betfred currently has the best price available for Erizindjan at 6/1, with four places. There are a few others showing 6/1 but none of them can match Betfred on the new customer sign up offer front. If you
bet £10, you’ll get £50 in free bets. You read that right, not £30, not £40, but £50 in free bets!
Erzindjan can make up for lost time here!
Unfortunately Erzindjan has only managed two runs since March 2024. However, I think he can scoop a big prize for new connections on his second run for them. In this article, I’ll explain exactly why I think that.
Erzindjan looks like a Group horse in a handicap to me!
If we rewind two and half years to March 2023, Erzindjan was running in a Group 1 at Meydan, where he finished a very respectable fourth, beaten less than two lengths, and producing a career best RPR of 111. In December of that year, he returned to Meydan for a Group 2 and finished second, again producing a very strong RPR of 109.
It was a similar story last year with him again venturing over to Meydan in January 2024 to compete in another Group 1 and this time he could only finish sixth, beaten 4.5 lengths. That was still a very strong effort though and produced a RPR of 106.
After that, his form tailed off, with figures of 77000 and largely regressive RPRs of 91, 98, 87, 84 and 84. That was until last time out, where his effort suggested he retained some ability and he could be a Group horse in a Handicap as a result. I’ll cover that latest race in the next section!
His effort over C&D last time, suggests he retains his old ability
In July 2024, Erzindjan was moved from A bin Harmash to Paddy Twomey, where he managed just one run, where he finished last in a field of eighteen. At face value, it looks awful, finishing last and producing a RPR of 75 off a mark of 103. However, he weakened quickly and was eased from 2f out, suggesting something was amiss. Given that we didn’t see him for a further 347 days, I’d definitely say that was the case.
He spent from 30 July 2024 until 12 July 2025 on the sidelines, during which time he was moved from Paddy Twomey to TJ Kent. His return to the track was over C&D in the John Smith’s Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) where he was sent off at a massive price of 80/1. He was drawn wide in stall 14, and raced towards the rear, but he travelled with serious class through the race. Ray Dawson held onto him for a long time suggesting they just wanted to see him finish his race out strongly and hit the line well. He did exactly that, running on for fourth place, finishing best of all, including clocking the fastest final furlong (11.82s).
That final furlong wasn’t the only impressive one though, he clocked 10.94 from 4f to 3f and 11.16 from 2f to 1f, which are some serious sectional times. The finishing percentage for him came in at 112.55% suggesting he finished with plenty to give. Had he been asked for an effort sooner, he may well have given the winner plenty to think about.
Erzindjan has landed a favourable draw and can challenge sooner
I thought that latest effort was a huge run, and the RPR awarded was 105 compared to his mark of 98. Surprisingly, the handicapper decided to only nudge him up 1lb, which I think is very lenient and could have been much more.
He returns today over C&D, and on similar Good to Firm ground, so he should relish these conditions once again. However, the main change from last time out is that he is drawn much more kindly in stall three, compared with stall fourteen last time. This should enable him to race on the inner, covering a shorter distance and in turn, conserving energy.
As well as this, connections and jockey Ray Dawson, who retains the ride, have the benefit of knowing that he still has that old ability in him and is seemingly in rude health. Therefore, he can be ridden more positively today, knowing that he’ll finish his race off strongly. I would also argue that this race looks weaker than the John Smith’s Cup Handicap, which further adds to his chances.
Can Erzindjan land this big prize and reward the patience of his owner?
In my opinion, Erzindjan has a huge opportunity in today’s race. As always, I analyse the pros and cons for each horse that I’m considering backing, and in all honesty, I’m struggling to find too many negatives, compared to the abundance of positives. We know he’s in great health and form, we know he performs over C&D, he’s been kindly drawn, and this is a weaker race than last time. I genuinely believe he is a Group horse in a Handicap today. Whilst his very best form came a little while back, he is only seven, so he’s far from being over the hill.
On the slight negative side, he has clearly had issues in the past, so he does need to prove he can put two solid runs together here. However, there is no reason to think that he won’t, and the way he was ridden last time gave him every chance of coming out of that race well. He was finishing strongly, rather than being out on his feet and looking for the line. The only other potential negative is that he has to shoulder 9st 11lb, being one of the highest rated horses in the race. That said, if he’s a Group horse in a Handicap as I think, he should be able to give them the weight and a beating.
All things considered, I think he is well worth a 1pt each way bet and I’m not surprised to see some early money driving him in from 10/1 to 6/1. There could easily be even more money to come for him this morning, so you’ll need to be quick.
Open new bookie accounts and enjoy free bets!
Below you will see some of the fantastic free bet offers currently available from our recommended bookmaker brands. Make sure to check them out, there’s plenty of value to be had from these deals!
Want more RacingGav content? Then join my Discord!
I produce four articles with free betting tips for betting.co.uk most weeks, but the majority of my selections are exclusively for my Discord members.
They enjoyed a very profitable start to August with a treble landing on the very first day of the month at prices of
9/1 (12/1), 7/1 and 5/1!
Since then they have enjoyed further August winners at
13/2, 9/1, 10/1, 3/1, 6/1, 7/1, 12/1, 18/1, 18/1, 16/1 and 11/1
and are currently sitting on
+36.004pts
for August to date!
This follows on nicely from July, which ended with a profit of
+29.239pts!
You can join my Discord server right away on a
seven day free trial
and receive immediate access to all of my racing content. Should you have any queries before signing up, my DMs are open over on X - @RacingGav.
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
