Key Points
- Today’s betting tip was unfortunate not to win this race last year
- This race has been the plan for my selection since last year
- This horse is overpriced due to his less prominent trainer
It was a great opening day of action at the Aintree Grand National Festival, with some fantastic performances and plenty of drama! But sadly, the first of my
free horse racing tips
for the festival had no joy. Pic d’Orhy didn't put in his finest round of jumping, making more than one mistake before absolutely clattering one. It’s quite remarkable he managed to finish third, but as we backed him to win, it wasn’t enough. Hopefully I can find us a winner on Day 2, and I’ve certainly found value with a horse at 18/1 odds.
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Betting advice
- 16:05 Aintree -
Lisnamult Lad
@ 18/1 (6 places) -
0.5pt each way
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As I write this article, two bookmakers are offering the
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This has been the long-term plan, now it’s time to deliver!
I love when a horse is specifically campaigned for a certain race, and that's the case with Lisnamult Lad in the Topham Handicap Chase. I think he has a huge chance here and certainly a far better one than his odds of 18/1 suggest and he looks like a great each way bet to me!
Lisnamult Lad was unfortunate not to win this race last year
Ian Patrick Donoghue’s runner, Lisnamult Lad, was unfortunate in last year’s renewal of this Topham Handicap Chase. And that fact comes from someone who backed and tipped the winner! He raced in touch with the leaders, made good headway, and was in second place at the eighth.
He went on to lead four out, and looked to be running away with the race when he was badly hampered (twice) by a loose horse on the run in. Unfortunately, Lisnamult Lad's loss of momentum gave Gentleman De Mee the chance to reel him in, but given the margin of defeat was less than a length, you could easily argue that it cost Lisnamult Lad the race.
If you care to watch a replay, the pair powered over seven lengths clear of the third-placed horse, and either one of them would have been a very deserving winner. In respect of Gentleman De Mee, he was slowly into stride and didn’t jump all that well, so he did remarkably well to end up winning. Personally, I think that Lisnamult Lad would have won that race without the involvement of the loose horse.
This race has been the plan for Lisnamult Lad since last year
Given how well they both performed in the race last year, it’s no big surprise to see Lisnamult Lad and Gentleman De Mee return for this year’s renewal. Interestingly, both of them come here off marks that are exactly 3lb higher than last year. Given how far the pair pulled clear last time, you would think they have every chance, even off slightly higher marks.
To put things into perspective, just like last year, Gentleman De Mee has been campaigned on unsuitably soft ground through the winter months to bring his mark down. He is a different horse in the spring on better ground, so his underwhelming runs through the winter are easy to forgive once again.
By contrast, Lisnamult Lad has only had a couple of runs, in a 3m Hurdle and 2m 1f Chase. Connections have avoided running him on unfavourable ground, which should see him very fresh and well here. Ian Patrick Donoghue has publicly admitted that this race has been the plan since last year, and hopefully he can go one better this time around.
Lisnamult Lad is overpriced due to his less prominent trainer
Obviously Willie Mullins will be hoping that Gentleman De Mee can repeat last year's victory, and Ian Patrick Donoghue will be hoping that Lisnamult Lad can go one better. In my opinion, considering how closely matched they were last year, and how they meet again off the same, albeit higher, weight, I’d have them quite evenly matched in the betting market.
However, Gentleman De Mee is priced between 15/2 and 9/1, while Lisnamult Lad is priced from 14/1 to 18/1. For me, this price difference feels completely wrong. Minus the loose horse last year, Lisnamult Lad may well have won, and he wouldn’t be the price that he is now.
Gentleman De Mee is trained by Willie Mullins, owned by JP McManus, and ridden by Mark Walsh which I believe is playing a part in his price here. If anything, with Lisnamult Lad being a year younger, he has the greater scope for repeating last year's performance. However, as Ian Patrick Donoghue is considerably less prominent as a trainer, Lisnamult Lad is being underestimated. Interestingly, Ian has a 20% strike rate, and a 40% win or place rate for the 10 runners he has sent over to Great Britain this season, so he doesn’t send them over for the day out.
Can Lisnamult Lad go one better this time?
I think there are a lot of positives when you look at Lisnamult Lad’s chance of winning this year’s Topham Handicap Chase. Arguably, he should have won last year, he’s only 3lb higher this time around, he has valuable experience under his belt now, and the ground looks to be in his favour. I also know this race has been planned over the last 12 months, and hopefully the patience will pay off.
In terms of the negatives, he was beaten last year and he does come here 3lb worse off. I would also prefer genuine Good going for him, rather than the current Good to Soft, but I think it may be riding quicker than the official going description, and it could certainly be a lot worse. Although they are watering to maintain the conditions, the forecast is dry and breezy tomorrow, so it may dry out further.
All things considered, I think that Lisnamult Lad is overpriced at 18/1 and has every chance of running into the places at least. It’s hard to say he’ll win when there's a big field of 30 runners, but hopefully he can go one better than last year. If he was trained and/or owned by bigger names, I'm convinced he’d be a fraction of his current price, and I was tempted to play a higher stake but given this is a 30 runner handicap over the Grand National fences, I’m keeping the stake modest at 0.5pt each way.
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