Key Points
- Today’s betting tip has a bit to find on the official figures but he’s fit and experienced
- The step back up in trip looks the right call for him and I suspect this has been a long term plan
- His trainer won this race in 2017 and 2022 and is finding form now ahead of this meeting
We got Lord Accord on our side at 6/1 yesterday, and that early play looks a wise move. At the time of writing, he has been well supported, so we have plenty of value in our bet. I can see him going off favourite here and hopefully he can deliver for us. I’m not done with Day 1 of the Welsh Racing Festival yet though and I have a second selection for you. Today’s betting tip runs in the feature race of the day, the Persian War Novices’ Hurdle.
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Betting advice
- 15:43 Chepstow -
Jack Hyde
@ 15/2 (3 places) - 0.5pt each way
Standout value from bet365!
A range of prices are available for Jack Hyde, with some bookies pricing him as short as 11/2. However, bet365 is offering the best price at 15/2 and that looks a fantastic each way price to me. With just eight runners in the Persian War today, there are only three places available, so my bookie pick all comes down to the best price.
In that respect, if you don’t already have a bet365 account, I’d highly recommend opening one and taking advantage of their great sign up offer. If you
bet £10, they’ll give you £30 of free bets. It could make all the difference as we head for the Welsh Racing Festival over the weekend.
Jack Hyde could defy the official ratings
I accept that on paper, Jack Hyde has plenty to find with a couple of his rivals. However, I think this is some great placement from his connections, and he could well be ahead of his mark. In this article, I’ll be building the case for him, so read on to understand my logic.
The Persian War is a funny race. Some very talented horses emerge as winners, but there are often even better horses lingering deeper in the field. With Chepstow marking the start of the real National Hunt season, two types of horses turn up in the Persian War. You have those looking to land some prize money early in the season, and you have those who are using it as a stepping stone for bigger races later in the season.
A year or two from now, Jack Hyde may not be the most talented horse to come out of this race but that’s not what this is about. We are betting on who will win the race today. Horses like Moneygarrow and Kilwaughter have never tackled Hurdles in public before. Then others like Queensbury Boy, Sticktotheplan and Krak are coming here without a previous run for fitness. So, if you’re going to beat them, today is the day.
On the flip side, Jack Hyde has an abundance of experience in comparison, with two PTP runs, three Bumper runs and six runs over Hurdles already. Of those, he won a Bumper, and three of his Hurdles races. That means, he should put on a polished performance in terms of his jumping, and following a run at Newton Abbot last month, he should be fit as a fiddle. He has been quietly picking up prize money and experience, and I think the latter can pay dividends today.
The step back up in trip looks the right call for Jack Hyde
Jack Hyde’s first three runs over Hurdles were over 2m. He was then stepped up to 2m 4.5f at Southwell, where he bolted up to win by 12 lengths, producing a career best RPR of 126. After that he was thrown into a deep Class 2 Handicap at Aintree, where he fared best of the prominent runners, and put in a strong performance that I feel slipped under the radar.
He had a 158-day break after that, returning at Newton Abbot last month over 2m 1f. Despite the drop back in trip, he made all and won easily from the front. To be honest, that was a weak race where he was sent off as the 1/7 favourite, and he was expected to win it. Of course, he can only beat what’s in front of him, and the style of the victory was good to see. As it was a weak race, I feel that run went under the radar too.
The handicapper felt he ran in accordance with his mark of 123, and left him unaltered, which seems generous to me. Especially now we know that he’s stepping back up in trip to an intermediate distance, which should bring out further improvement from him. Jack Hyde is owned by the Paddy Brennan Racing Syndicate, and he’s a man who knows the time of day. He was the former stable jockey for Fergal O’Brien, and he knows the game inside out. He showed with Leloopa back in March that he knows how to campaign one, by landing a £100,000 race up at Kelso, and I feel Jack Hyde has a similar long term plan in the making.
In addition to this race being on Paddy Brennan’s radar from some time back, I’m sure it was circled on Fergal O’Briens calendar as well. Fergal won this race in 2017 and 2022 with Poetic Rhythm and Accidental Rebel, respectively. He also had the favourite in the 2018 renewal, who sadly fell at the fourth after being sent off as the 5/2 favourite. Courtandbould also had a solid run in the 2020 renewal, when he came second to the talented McFabulous. So Fergal knows what it takes to win this race and seems to target it.
His string is currently in red hot form, with three winners from seven National Hunt runners in October so far, which is a 43% strike rate. The form figures for those seven runners read 2712711. Whilst Fergal O’Brien is a prolific trainer in his own right, it makes sense to make hay while the sun shines, bearing in mind that a lot of the big yards are yet to unleash their top winter horses.
Can Jack Hyde land this £80,000 race for connections?
This race is all about Queensbury Boy after the hype that David Maxwell has driven around the horse. Basically he has been saying it’s laid out for the race and to get on. Many will blindly follow that ‘advice’ regardless of the price and as a result, I think the current 6/4 is far too short. Yes, Queensbury Boy has tons of potential, and he could well have been laid out for the race but when it’s an £80,000 race, I’m sure many others have too, they are just not shouting about it!
With Queensbury Boy too short in the market, it creates value elsewhere and I think that is exactly what we are looking at with Jack Hyde at 15/2 here. For me, he should be shorter in the market and the bookies will be laughing if something like him can go and beat this hype horse at the top of the market. At the prices, it’s an obvious choice for me. If you were to judge Queensbury Boy and Jack Hyde on their RPR figures, they have both achieved the same personal best of 126!
Jack Hyde has fitness and experience on his side, and I think those edges will make the difference today. On paper, others in here may seem too highly rated for Jack Hyde to compete, with Kainsbourg at 9/1 being the main danger. However, you must consider the whole picture, and I think other factors put him right in the mix. I feel he’s great value at his current price, but given that he does need to improve and there is always a risk of something special, but unexposed, turning up in a race like this, it’s just half stakes for me today.
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