Key Points
- My betting tip is dangerously handicapped back down to his last winning mark
- He has been competing in Class 2 company but now drops down to Class 3
- Ray Dawson partnered this horse to success in Dubai, and he returns to the saddle today
It was a frustrating watch for those of you who followed me on the Coeur d’Or bet yesterday. He travelled superbly, and had a beautiful spot behind the leader on the rail. However, he then got caught in a pocket, as those on his outside committed before Chris Hayes did. Unfortunately, all Chris could do was sit there and wait.
When the opportunity finally arose and he got going, it was all too late. Ultimately. Coeur d’Or finished fourth, closing all the way to the line, but out of the places. Another cruel hard luck story for Coeur d’Or who seems to be a magnet for them. Anyway, we go again today and this time we head to Haydock.
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Betting advice
- 15:05 Haydock -
Silver Sword
@ 11/2 (3 places) -
0.75pt each way
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Silver Sword can win this before returning to Dubai this winter!
This winter, Silver Sword will be heading back to Dubai for another campaign over there, but I feel he can snatch this race before he heads off on his travels. In this article, I’ll explain why I think that, so keep reading to get the full lowdown.
Silver Sword is dangerously handicapped back down to his last winning mark
Silver Sword’s last win came during March over in Dubai, where he landed the Burj Azizi Handicap for horses rated 80-100, off a mark of 89. He has now fallen back down to the same mark of 89, and he looks ready to win again.
If you go back even further in the form book, Silver Sword has previously won off as high as 93, when landing the prestigious Sky Bet Mile Handicap at the 2023 Ebor Festival. During that campaign he even held his own in Group 3 company, when chasing home Highland Avenue in the Darley Stakes at Newmarket.
While it feels like he has been around for quite a time now, he’s still only five, and back down to a mark of 89 in Class 3 race, I think he can be very competitive today.
Silver Sword has been competing in Class 2 company but now drops down to Class 3
As well as his appealing handicap mark, the fact that Silver Sword has dropped down to Class 3 company has also caught my attention. Since August 2023, he has never been rated lower than 89, with his best mark peaking at 103. As a result, he’s been racing largely in Class 2 Handicaps, Listed contests, and sometimes in Group company. His only other Class 3 race during this period came at Kempton, around this time last year, when he was well supported but narrowly denied by just a neck.
During this campaign, he has run two eye-catching races in better company. The first of those was in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket, where he was denied a clear run, but still ran on well. He finished in 11th place, beaten by seven lengths, which does not do that run any justice. Silver Sword’s latest run was in the Autumn Mile Handicap at York, where he had a horrible draw in stall 16 of 17.
He ran a huge race to finish fifth, beaten by just three lengths. He would almost certainly have finished closer with a kinder draw, especially as York is a track where it pays to be drawn low. Dropping down into Class 3 company today, I think he could run a huge race, and really should be winning at this level, off his current mark.
Ray Dawson partnered Silver Sword to success in Dubai, and he returns to the saddle today
As touched upon earlier, Silver Sword’s latest win was back in March over at Dubai. Interestingly, Ray Dawson rode him that day, and hasn’t partnered Silver Sword since. That changes now though, as he is booked for the ride today, which I find very noteworthy.
Ray has only ridden Silver Sword three times, with all three of those races taking place in Dubai. Ray got a great tune out of him on each occasion, and if he is able to do the same again today, I’m certain Silver Sword will go close in this race. In fact, I can easily see him winning here before he heads back to Dubai for the winter, where Ray will likely partner him once again.
I think there is an awful lot in Silver Sword’s favour today. He has been in great form in stronger company than this, he’ll be fit as a fiddle on his third start of this campaign, Ray Dawson takes over the reins and he gets his ideal trip and ground conditions. I also think Haydock is a great choice for him as it should really suit his style. He did run here once before, returning a very solid RPR of 101 in Listed company, and that over an inadequate 7f trip. He will surely be much happier here over the mile in a less competitive race.
On the negative side, he’s only won one race since August 2023, and that was in Dubai. A winter campaign in Dubai is almost certainly on his agenda again this year, so there is a chance they’ll be saving his best for that. Also, while nowhere near as bad as his draw in stall 16 last time, he’s still pretty wide in stall 7 today, in this 11-runner field.
All things considered, I think Silver Sword is a very solid bet. But as there are some minor niggles, I have trimmed the stake down to 0.75pts each way today. Let’s just hope that Silver Sword can secure a victory here on home soil for us before he jets off for his winter campaign in Dubai.
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