Key Points
- My betting tip won this race last year and looks set to successfully defend his crown
- In five starts over this course and distance, he’s remarkably never been out of the first four
- Oisin Murphy takes back over in the saddle today and can guide him to victory
For All Weather racing fans, it doesn’t get any better than AW Finals Day up at Newcastle and I have a fantastic betting tip for you from that action. This gelding won the race last year, and I don’t think a 3lb higher mark is going to stop him retaining his crown.
If you are new to my articles, there are two that you should go back and read. They both contain antepost tips, the first has a selection for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival, and the other brings a pair of selections for the 2026 Grand National. They are all available at huge prices currently, so get on early before the odds shorten is my advice.
Betting Advice
- 15:35 Newcastle -
Fivethousandtoone
@ 13/2 (4 places) -
0.75pt each way
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Fivethousandtoone? I wouldn’t even lay him at 5/2!
Fivethousandtoone won this race last year when he was with Andrew Balding. During his winter break, he moved to Tim Easterby’s yard, and while the trainer is different, the target has looked the same for him. He has campaigned exclusively on the All Weather, and he has run well in all three of his races so far.
He won this race last year and I think he can defend his crown
Fivethousandtoone was slowly away in this race last year, and subsequently raced at the rear of the field. However, when Oisin Murphy switched him left for a run up the centre of the track, his turn of foot was unbelievable. As he hit top gear, he made the rest look like modest handicappers, and quickly went from the rear of the field to the front of it.
Last year’s victory came off a mark of 98 but as the RPR of 112 suggests, he won with plenty in hand and could have carried plenty more weight and still won. Off just 3lb higher this year, you would have to fancy his chances, as that extra weight would not have stopped him last year. A repeat of last year’s performance should be sufficient to win this, and that didn’t all go smoothly either.
As a general rule, the near side rail is the place to be at Newcastle, it can often be a golden highway. Therefore, I find it even more impressive that he was able to go and win in the style he did over on the far side of the course. He was drawn in Stall 3 last year, so Oisin’s hand was somewhat forced to race that side, but this year, he has been drawn in Stall 9, which should give Oisin plenty more options.
He has never finished out of the first four over this course and distance
If you look through Fivethousandtoone’s form and limit it to runs over this course and distance, his form figures read 13214. To not finish outside of the first four in any of the runs is quite remarkable, even more so considering that the fourth place was in Group 3 company, where he was disadvantaged at the weights.
Even the third place finish doesn’t do his run justice, as he was only beaten by three quarters of a length. He was slowly away that day and had an awful lot to do, with a clean break, he would have won easily. Such strong form over this course and distance must command serious respect.
The course most similar to Newcastle is Southwell, as they share the same type of surface. Fivethousandtoone has had one run over the 6f trip at Southwell and he produced a very solid RPR of 102 when fourth, beaten just 2.25 lengths. He also ran over an inadequate 5f trip there, and he still managed to finish fourth place, producing a RPR of 100.
I’d argue that RPR underestimates his performance as well, as he was slowly into stride, he was denied a clear run, and was again disadvantaged at the weights with his rivals in Listed company. For context, he only received 3lb off Marshman who was rated 110. They are both rated the same today and he receives 9lb from Marshman today, so he is 6lb better off for 2.5 lengths.
Oisin Murphy rode him to victory last year and can repeat the feat
When Fivethousandtoone won the race last year, he was ridden by Oisin Murphy. Oisin has only ridden him four times on the All Weather, but he has produced form figures of 6211, so he clearly gets a fantastic tune out of the horse on the All Weather.
In his three runs for Tim Easterby, Sean Kirrane was doing the steering. However, now that it’s the big day, Oisin Murphy gets back in the saddle, and that is a huge plus for the horse - with no disrespect intended to Sean Kirrane.
If you dig into the statistics, Oisin has a superb record on this AW track at Newcastle, clocking up 37 wins from 154 rides here, which is a remarkable 24% strike rate. Notably, he has brought a further 56 home in second, third and fourth. Of his 154 rides, a sensational 80 (52%) have finished in the first four.
It only gets more impressive if you narrow it down to the last five years. 20 wins (30%) and 26 places (69%) from 67 rides. If you want a jockey who can deliver, Oisin Murphy is your man.
Can Fivethousandtoone win back to back renewals?
With everything considered, Fivethousandtoone stands out in this field. He won the race last year, and he looks to have been targeted at it again this year. A 3lb higher mark shouldn’t stop him, and Oisin Murphy is back in the saddle. With Oisin’s amazing record here, and a lovely draw in Stall 9, Oisin has plenty of scope - it looks like the stars are aligning and I think he can produce back to back wins in the race.
I do have great respect for both Marshman and Saint Lawrence, and I rate them the main dangers to my selection. Marshman is extremely talented and classy but I just wonder whether the 9st 12lb as a result of his mark of 110 may anchor him. I just think that off a similar mark (only 2lb different), Fivethousandtoone is a better horse than Saint Lawrence, and will have more up his sleeve. Also whilst Hollie is a great jockey herself, I just think Oisin Murphy is another level.
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Another winner for the RacingGav Discord yesterday!
I generally post four articles each week here at betting.co.uk, which are predominantly one betting tip per day. However, the majority of my betting tips are exclusive to the members of my Discord server.
Last week we had six winners from five betting days, with wins at prices of 6/1, 2/1, 13/2, 7/4, 4/1 and 5/1. As if the winners were not enough, Discord members also enjoyed returns from three places at 20/1, 6/1 and 6/1. All of this resulted in a double digit profit in points last week, and a return on investment of an incredible 49.42%!
If you would like to find out more about yesterday’s winner or last week’s success, head over to my X account - @RacingGav. But if you have heard enough and want to jump right in, I have a
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