Key Points
- An exciting prospect in the Handicap Chase at Newbury
- This track, trip and ground look right up his street
- He drops down in class here and is back to his last winning mark
We are heading to Newbury today, where I have an interesting selection running in the 2m 7f Handicap Chase. Here I will explain my reasoning as to why I have chosen him for a bet today. There are a range of reasons and when combining them all, I think he has an excellent chance, especially backed each way!
My latest article produced a winning selection in Iskar d’Airy, so hopefully some of you reading this now picked up on my betting tip. The article prior was an antepost selection for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival, so if you haven’t already, check that one out too, as he still remains at a backable price of 28/1. In terms of what’s to come, I will post another article tomorrow covering some of Saturday’s action, so make sure you tune back in for that one!
Betting advice
- 16:02 Newbury -
Stormy Flight
@ 13/2 (3 places) -
0.75pt each way
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Stormy Flight can roll back the years and win today!
I really fancy Stormy Flight to win today, despite the fact he is now an 11-year-old. Whilst many are getting long in the tooth at his age, he still seems to retain his ability and I think he has more winning to do yet.
As well as the horse himself being in form, his trainer - Jeremy Scott, is in red hot form! He has had 13 runners in the last 14 days, 4 (31%) have won and a further 5 (9 in total - 69%) have finished in the first three! Hopefully Stormy Flight can continue his excellent run of form!
Stormy Flight is back down to his last winning mark
Stormy Flight has recorded five career wins with two over hurdles and a further three over fences. Those five wins have come off marks of 115, 122, 115, 119 & 122. So he has won off a mark of 122 twice, once over hurdles and once over fences. He has also finished second off higher marks of 123, 124, 123, 124 & 123, so he can be super competitive off these sorts of marks.
The latest second was just three runs back when he was beaten a neck by Lowry’s Bar off 123. That form reads particularly well with Lowry’s Bar now rated a stone higher in the handicap (134 to 148). After Stormy Flight was initially raised 1lb for that, he unseated next time out and finished 4th last time, so he has dropped back down 2lb and now races off 122. As above this is his last winning mark and one that he has won off twice previously - So he is handicapped to strike today!
The race conditions look pretty perfect for him
I looked at Stormy Flight last time out. He is pretty versatile in terms of trip and ground winning on everything from Good through to Soft and also over distances varying from 2m3f to 2m7f. I just felt last time that the combination of 2m 7f and Soft ground would stretch him and I feel as if it did. He weakened approaching the last and lost third on the run-in. For me, he wants softer ground if running over a trip like 2m3f and better ground if running over a trip like 2m 7f.
Today he gets exactly that as he is dropping back half a furlong to 2m 6.5f and he also gets Good to Soft, Good in places ground. I think those conditions will be right up his street and we should see him at his best today. He certainly shouldn’t have any excuses with either the trip or ground anyway. He has only ever ran at Newbury once and placed (third) over hurdles off a 2lb higher mark of 124, producing a RPR of 125, so the track should hold no excuses for him either. That said, it is a very limited sample size of just one run at the track.
The drop down into Class 4 company is massive and can give him a huge chance of coming out on top
The other eye-catching factor for me today is the drop down in class. In his 13 runs since 9th March 2023, he has ran in Class 3 company on all bar one occasion and on that sole run outside of Class 3 company, he was actually up in a Class 2. His run prior on 21st February 2023 was in a Class 4, which he won by 6 lengths and he’s been competing at these higher levels ever since.
Today he drops back down into a Class 4 and I think he is simply better than this calibre of rivals. His record in Class 4 company reads 2 wins (29%) and 2 places (4 in total - 57%) from 7 runs. However, it is worth noting that most of those were in Maiden or Novice hurdles. His sole run in handicap company at Class 4 level was that aforementioned 6 length victory.
The negative to dropping down into this Class 4 company is that he has to carry 12st 2lb. This is technically a race for 0-120 rated horses but they do allow horses rated 121 and 122 to compete. The top horse (in theory rated 120) is set to carry 12st but with him 2lb superior to the top weight, he carries 12st 2lb. On the bright side, Jeremy Scott has brought in Chad Bament to ride. Chad claims 7lb which is incredibly useful here as it’ll bring the weight on Stormy Flight’s back down from 12st 2lb to a much more manageable 11st 9lb and that could make all of the difference on the day.
Stormy Flight has everything in his favour and can win today!
As far as I can see, absolutely everything appears to be in Stormy Flight’s favour today. The track, trip and ground look ideal, he is on a winning mark, he’s down in class and the jockey alleviates some of his welter burden too. Other than if he suffers bad luck/interference in-running, he should really have no excuses for today and I think it’ll be his day.
Like I said, as well as all of those factors specific to the horse, you also have his trainer who is in red hot form. It really does feel like the stars are aligning for this 11-year-old and I do love to see the old boys get their heads in front. Hopefully we’ll see another one do exactly that today in the shape of Stormy Flight! All things considered and at a price of 13/2, I think he is a superb each way bet and I’d be disappointed if he wasn’t at least in the places. As he is 11 now and possibly not quite the horse he was, I have trimmed the stakes down from 1pt each Way to 0.75pt Each Way.
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