Key Points
- My betting tip for today looked like the winner last time out but he didn’t stay the trip!
- He has dropped 1lb for his latest run, giving him an outstanding chance today
- In Amateur Jockey races, the jockey booking can be key and there’s good news on that front
My betting tip for today runs in the 1m 2f Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap up at Newcastle. We backed him last time and he ran a very solid race in defeat. However, with lessons learned and adjustments made, he should be able to take a step forward now.
If you’re new here I usually post four articles every week. They are mostly betting tips, but you’ll also come across big race trends and antepost picks too. Speaking of the latter, I have already put up antepost selections for the 2025 Northumberland Plate, 2026 Cheltenham Festival and the 2026 Grand National, so if you haven’t already seen those, make sure you take a look. Lastly, I will be back tomorrow with my final betting tip for the week, so make sure you come back for that!
Betting advice
- 16:45 Newcastle -
Wyld Bill
@ 13/2 (4 places) -
2pts each way
bet365 are offering the best value for Wyld Bill!
When comparing the odds and place terms on offer for this race, bet365 stands out head and shoulders above the rest. They are offering the best price of 13/2, and they are also paying 4 places, which only a handful of the bookies are. And the value doesn’t stop there! If you sign up and
bet £10, they’ll give you £30 of free bets. A lovely boost for your betting balance as we head into the weekend action.
Wyld Bill can get redemption for last time out
We
backed Wyld Bill previously, just over a fortnight ago in fact, and there was plenty of reasoning behind that bet. A lot of the same logic will apply, but there are other reasons as well this time. In this article, I’ll be covering the new reasons, rather than going back over the old ground again.
Wyld Bill looked like a winner last time but he didn’t quite stay the trip!
Last time out, on his Handicap debut, Wyld Bill stepped up in trip from 7f to 1m 3f. He broke very well and cruised through the race, if anything a little too keenly. As the race developed, Wyld Bill continued to breeze through the race and as the jockeys began to get serious, he travelled best of them all. Wyld Bill was the last one off the bridle, and he briefly took the lead just over 1f out, but then the gas tank light came on.
He was headed just as they entered the final furlong, where he dropped back from the front of the field to finish fifth. Whilst losing positions inside the final furlong was frustrating, especially with four places paid on our each way bet, he was only beaten by 2.5 lengths at the line.
My gut instinct is that he has the ability to win a race of this nature but he will need a shorter trip to do so. So the fact they drop him back from 1m 3f to 1m 2f is a huge plus in my eyes. With the way he travelled around Kempton, I don’t think he’ll have any issues at this slightly shorter trip. If anything, it will enable him to pack more of a punch at the business end, which was all he lacked last time out.
Dropped 1lb for his latest run, Wyld Bill must have an outstanding chance
For me, that Kempton run was very solid. Whilst it was disappointing and frustrating that he faded out of the places during the final furlong, he still ran a cracker, outperforming both his odds and rating. Interestingly the Racing Post Rating (RPR) agrees as he was rated 60 after running off an OR of 57. Whilst I didn’t expect him to be raised having finished fifth, I didn’t expect him to be dropped either, so it was a pleasant surprise that the handicapper knocked 1lb off his mark.
As you’ll see if you read my last article about Wyld Bill, I already felt he was well handicapped stepping up in trip from 7f. I’m even more convinced now that he’s down to a mark of just 56. With the slightly shorter trip today, he should have no excuses, and I’m very confident he can put on a big performance. With four places on offer, I’d certainly be shocked if he wasn’t among them this time, but I’m quietly confident that he can win.
In Amateur Jockey races, the booking can be key and they’ve made an eye-catching one!
The ability level of Amateur jockeys can vary considerably. Making sure you have a good one in the saddle can have far more impact than when professionals are racing against one another. I’d say the discrepancy in ability between the best and worst professionals is far smaller than the gap between the best and the worst amateurs.
That said, there are some allowances factored in to level some of the disparity. Amateur jockeys who have ridden less than 10 winners can claim 3lb, those with less than 5 wins can claim 5lb, and those without any wins can claim 7lb. However, I can’t help but feel that the ability discrepancy can often outweigh the allowances.
In my opinion, whilst I greatly respect some amateurs like Eireann Cagney and Fletcher Yarham, the best amateur on the Flat right now is Simon Walker. Fortunately, for us, he is the man who will be aboard Wyld Bill today. This is a fantastic booking from Wyld Bill’s connections, and it’s a serious sign of intent from them too. In a field where two of the jockeys have yet to ride a winner, and five more who haven’t achieved five, Simon stands out with 161 wins under his belt to date.
As well as riding plenty of winners, he has enjoyed plenty of rides in general, with 873 so far,which date all the way back to 1992. That wealth of experience is a huge advantage against his rivals in these amateur races, and to be truthful, he probably has more experience than plenty of professionals. Considering he is an amateur, I’d say it’s a pretty impressive feat to have won over 18% of the races he has ridden in - almost one win out of every five in fact! Hopefully Simon can add winner number 162 to his tally today with Wyld Bill.
Can Wyld Bill make the long journey worthwhile?
I think Wyld Bill was campaigned over inadequate trips with the sole intention of winning a Handicap. Whilst that plan didn’t quite pay off at the first attempt, I think connections have made the necessary adjustment, with the slight step down in trip, to strike at the second time of asking. In addition, the jockey is a key factor for me in this Amateur Jockeys race, and Simon’s experience and skill should come to the fore today. The blinkers applied for the first time at Kempton are retained again today, which is also a good sign. If he was going off the same mark again, I’d be very confident of his chances but the 1lb off his back helps him even more.
From his draw in Stall 6, and with a few pace angles in the lineup - Star Start, Persian Phoenix and Anificas Beauty - I think he should be able to ping out of his stall, drop in behind the leaders and receive a lovely tow into the race. Simon should be able to switch him off behind them, but also be close enough not to let them get away, ready to pick off in the home straight.
It is a long old journey from Newmarket to Newcastle for Wyld Bill and his connections. But I feel he has an excellent chance of making that journey worthwhile for them and hopefully us too. At 13/2 with 4 places on offer, he looks fantastic value to me, and I’m struggling to find any real negatives.
If he was off the same mark and they had a run-of-the-mill Amateur aboard, I’d be hovering around the 0.75pt to 1pt mark. But with 1lb less on Wyld Bill’s back and Simon Walker booked, I’m prepared to play 2pts each way here. I don't see him out of the places, but I genuinely think he will win!
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