Key Points
- Today’s betting tip is well handicapped, having won off this mark previously
- According to statistics, this horse excels at this time of the year
- Billy Loughnane takes over from apprentice jockey Ryan Kavanagh today
For today’s betting tip, I have a selection at Southwell. This horse looks overpriced to me based on his latest run, and his current handicap mark. He became even more interesting when I spotted that some bookmakers are paying three places on this seven runner race.
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Betting advice
- 16:00 Southwell -
Simiyann
@7/1 (3 places) -
0.5pt each way
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At the time of writing, Simiyann is priced between 13/2 and 8/1. There are only seven runners in this race, but nonetheless, five bookmakers are offering three places. Of those, BetMGM has the best price at 7/1. In addition to value odds and place terms, they have an exceptional deal for new customers too. If you
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Simiyann looks ready to return to winning ways!
There are plenty of good reasons for selecting Simiyann today and I will break them all down for you here. This horse has a lot going for him today, so make sure you continue reading to get the full lowdown.
Simiyann is handicapped to win based on his highest winning mark
Simiyann looks ready to strike with his current rating of 69. For some context, Simiyann has recorded four wins during his career and they came off handicap marks of 61, 67, 69 and 68. Based on that, we know he can be very competitive off a mark of 69.
Furthermore, he has previously finished second and third off higher marks of 73 and 74. While his connections may be a little aggrieved that he didn’t receive any further support from the handicapper following his defeat last time out, it was a strong performance. For me (and clearly the handicapper) it’s hard to say he should be dropped for it.
During that race, he raced wider than the others, thus covering more ground. He also finished the race with the highest speed, suggesting he had more to give. However, with a steady pace throughout and a sprint to the line, those who raced prominently were favoured. In today’s race, with a bigger field, and a couple of horses who should go forward, Simiyann should get a solid gallop to aim at, which will be much more suitable and should see him in a better light.
According to statistics, Simiyann excels at this time of the year
Whilst they are not a guaranteed golden ticket to a winner, I do love to dive into the statistics behind runners. For Simiyann, I discovered that his record for the month of October is two wins and two seconds from just four runs. Based on that, he seems to come alive at this time of the year and I think he can add to his strong October record later today.
I also noted that his four wins have come in either Class 5 or Class 6 company. As he was only narrowly beaten in Class 4 company last time, and he drops back into easier Class 5 company today, that could be enough to see him with his head in front at the line.
Simiyann also produces his best on AW surfaces, so I’m pleased to see him turn up here. Arguably, Wolverhampton might have been better, as he has two wins and one second place there, but just one third from his three runs here at Southwell. Despite that, I actually think Southwell is the more suitable track for him out of the two.
Billy Loughnane takes over from apprentice jockey Ryan Kavanagh today
You should never be overly critical of apprentice jockeys. Ultimately they’re learning on the job and they are apprentices for a reason. However, I must say that I’m not fully convinced by Ryan Kavanagh, the apprentice at Simiyann’s yard. Therefore, I’m very happy to see that trainer Ian Williams has booked Billy Loughnane for the ride.
Looking at statistics once again, Billy has strong figures when riding for Ian, with an all time 18% strike rate. That’s an impressive figure and he has also had 41% of his rides finishing in the first three. If you narrow it down to this year only, the figures go up. In terms of wins, it’s a 21% strike rate and in terms of finishing in the first three, it’s 43%. All of these numbers are well above the norm for both trainer and jockey overall.
Simiyann is a hold up horse, so Billy Loughnane will need to strike a fine balance between being close to the rail to cover the shortest route, but also take care not to get caught in a pocket on the rail. There is nothing more frustrating than seeing your horse full of running but being denied a clear run. Billy is a top jockey though, and I’m confident he will be able to navigate Simiyann through the field for a decent crack at the race.
Can Simiyann repeat his exceptional October record?
For me, there are a lot of positives for Simiyann today. He is handicapped to be very competitive, he has a fantastic record in October, and there should be a good gallop to aim at. In addition to that, Billy Loughnane has been booked to ride, which I like a lot. He has also dropped from Class 4 into Class 5 company and has landed the lowest draw in Stall 1 too. It’s not as though he has been out of form either, he won three starts ago and ran a cracker last time.
On the negative side, I don’t have a great deal to mention. However, his strike rate of 4 from 34 isn’t all that inspiring, and it suggests he often finds a way not to win. Being a hold up type that’s drawn low, I also fear that he could get caught in a pocket on the rail. As a result of these concerns, and the fact this is a pretty low grade affair, I’m only willing to play half stakes today
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