Key Points
- Today’s betting tip won this race last year!
- This horse is 6lb below his last winning mark now
- He has been running on the AW but switches back to Turf today
After finding a winner yesterday with Hurstwood up at Ripon, I’m back to try and repeat the feat today! My betting tip for today runs at Carlisle in the 1m 3f Class 6 Handicap (0-65). I think he’s being completely overlooked in the market, and whilst he comes with a few caveats, I think he’s worth an each way bet!
If you’re new to my betting.co.uk articles, I post four articles most weeks. These are mostly betting tips, but you’ll also come across big race trends and antepost picks too. Speaking of the latter, I have already put up antepost selections for both the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and the 2026 Grand National, so if you haven’t already seen those, make sure you take a look. Lastly, I will be posting another betting tip for tomorrow’s racing action too, so make sure you check back in tomorrow.
Betting advice
- 15:45 Carlisle -
Hot Team
- @ 16/1 (4 places) -
0.25pt each way
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If you are looking to back Hot Team, I would do so with bet365. At the time of writing, they have the best odds available at 16/1, as well as paying 4 places. As well as great value odds, they have a fantastic sign up offer too. If you bet £10, you’ll get £30 in free bets. It’s a great way to make the most of your weekend betting.
As I have said many times in these articles, trainers are creatures of habit and when they know something works, they often look to repeat it. As we saw yesterday, Hurstwood won the race two years prior, and went close last year before winning it again yesterday. I’m hoping Hot Team can follow in his footsteps!
Hot Team won this race last year and comes back to defend his crown
Patrick Morris sent Hot Team up to Carlisle last year to contest this race on Soft ground, and he absolutely demolished the field off a mark of 46. He was racing from 1lb out of the Handicap, but still beat the second-placed horse by 8.5 lengths. That was a mighty performance considering he took a keen hold in the race and the Carlisle hill is brutal.
It may not have been the strongest of races last year, but nevertheless it was an impressive show from Hot Team. That win came off a mark of 46 and he’s now returning to repeat the feat off the exact same mark again. I’m hoping we will see the same outcome this time. Carlisle is a course which plenty of horses don’t enjoy, largely due to the stiff uphill finish, so the fact he has proved himself here is a huge bonus.
He is now rated 6lb below his last winning mark, so he looks handicapped to strike!
After winning last year’s renewal of this race, Hot Team proved it was no fluke by going up to Hamilton and winning two starts later off a mark of 52. He continued to prove these performances were no fluke by hitting the frame off marks of 57, 57 and 54 as the season went on.
He now finds himself back down to a mark of 46, which is 6lb lower than his last winning mark. On that basis, he must have a massive chance here if he can rediscover his form.
He’s been running on the AW but reverts to the Turf today
Something else I find interesting about Hot Team is his campaign. His last four runs have seen him competing on the All Weather. Now it doesn’t take much to see that he’s not the same horse on the All Weather, as his record sits at just one win from 35 starts, and that was all the way back in August 2022.
Since that win, he has run 24 times on the All Weather with no further wins recorded. While it looks bad on paper that he was well beaten in his last four starts, I wouldn’t give it much weight considering those were All Weather races.
Hot Team reverts back to Turf today, where he clearly prefers the surface and performs to a higher standard, which I feel will be a crucial factor. What the All Weather campaigning has done though, is bring his handicap mark down from 53 to just 46 (7lb) in just four runs.
They have him handicapped to strike just as he returns to the Turf. Plus, this is a race he has won before off the same mark. Coincidence? I think not, I think it’s a well thought out plan…
Can Hot Team land back to back renewals of this race?
The positives for Hot Team come in abundance:
- He won this race last year, proving he likes this C&D
- He’s defending his crown off the same mark as last year
- He won recently off 6lb higher
- He’s got a lovely racing weight of 8st 4lb
- The jockey’s 5lb claim brings his weight down to 7st 13lb
- His recentAW form can largely be ignored
He raced prominently last year, and the pace in the race looks pretty weak, so he could get an easy time in front if adopting similar tactics
There are also some negatives. We are relying on him returning to form for the switch back to Turf. Rhys Elliott, who rode him for his last two wins, isn’t in the saddle, instead we have Alex Jary who is 0/1 aboard Hot Team. He’s also been off the track since 13 March, so we’re taking his fitness on trust.
It's also worth noting this is a 46-rated horse running in a Class 6 Handicap, so that comes with risks in itself. Hot Team is also drawn out widest of all in Stall 13. Finally, last year’s renewal didn’t look the strongest, and he is now a nine-year-old.
At a price of 16/1, with four places on offer, Hot Team still seems worth a bet. However, given the negatives, I’m restricting the stake to 0.25pt each way.
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