Key Points
- This filly is unexposed and falls into the “could be anything” category
- Her fourth place in the 1000 Guineas was fantastic for just her second start
- Connections have supplemented her for the race at a cost of £30,000!
My first betting tip for this week actually runs on Friday rather than today. She lines up in the Betfred Oaks at Epsom, and due to the calibre of this race, the betting market is already open. I believe she has a great chance in this fillies’ only Classic, and hope she can justify the faith placed in her by connections to get her here.
If you are new to my articles, I typically post four betting tips each week. This week it will be three, with one each today, tomorrow and Saturday. As well as betting tips for the current action, I also create other types of content such as big race trends and antepost selections. On that note, don’t forget to check out my antepost selections for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and 2026 Grand National to catch those early prices.
Betting advice
- Friday - 16:00 Epsom (Betfred Oaks) -
Elwateen
@ 10/1 (3 places) -
0.5pt each way
Back Elwateen to win The Oaks with Betfred
Betfred is Friday’s big race sponsor, and they are currently offering 10/1 for Elwateen to win. I think that’s a great price, considering she has tons of potential. Better still, if you are new to this bookie, they’ll give you a great
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Elwateen can bring the Oaks back to Shadwell
There are several reasons I feel Elwateen is underestimated (and overpriced) for this year’s renewal of The Oaks, and I’ll walk you through those next.
This filly is unexposed and falls into the “could be anything” category
Back in August 2024, Elwateen made her debut on the AW at Kempton, in a run-of-the-mill Class 5 Fillies’ Novice Stakes, paying just £3,672 to the winner. She looked beaten at one stage, but once the penny dropped, she knuckled down and got up to win. The horse in second place that day was Orchid, who has won her last two starts, and is now rated at 89, thus franking the form.
Elwateen was subsequently put away after her debut run, and on her return she was thrown right in at the deep end, to contest the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. That is a huge ask for a filly at the best of times, but this was just her second start. She ended up finishing in fourth place, and was only beaten by 2.25 lengths at the line.
As with most things in life, the more you do them, the better you’ll get - practice makes perfect as they say! We can’t be sure yet, but Elvateen could have an incredible amount of improvement to come with just two starts under her belt to date. And that is the advantage she holds over many of her rivals in this race, the fact that she is so unexposed, and could be anything.
Elwateen’s fourth in the 1000 Guineas was fantastic for just her second start
The favourite for this year’s renewal of the Oaks, Desert Flower, is undoubtedly the one to beat. Elwateen faced her in the 1000 Guineas last month, and Desert Flower came out on top. She won the race, beating Flight by one length, with Elwateen back in fourth, just 2.25 lengths behind Desert Flower, as mentioned earlier.
However, it’s worth noting that the 1000 Guineas was Desert Flower’s fifth run, so she had far more experience under her belt. With Elwateen only on her second start, and looking like she was still learning on the job, by comparison, Desert Flower looked the ultimate professional.
While Desert Flower clearly sets the standard in the field, she is more exposed, and I think Elwateen has every right to improve further from her second run, than Desert Flower does from her fifth.
Whether that is enough to reverse the form from the 1000 Guineas,or not, is another matter, but it should certainly see Elwateen going closer this time, especially considering the relatively small distance between the pair at Newmarket.
Connections have supplemented Elwateen for the race at a cost of £30,000
It was a big risk to run Elwateen in the 1000 Guineas. Arguably, it’s an even bigger risk to throw her into the Oaks on just her third start. Particularly so when her connections have paid £30,000 to supplement her into the race because she wasn’t initially entered to run.
Elwateen will look to follow in the footsteps of Salsabil, Eswarah and Taghrooda, who have all carried the famous Shadwell silks to victory in previous renewals of this Classic. Shadwell knows what it takes to win The Oaks and Elwateen is clearly impressing them enough on the track and at home to suggest she deserves her chance at glory.
To have any chance of getting their supplement back, Elwateen would need to finish in the first four. However, for any worthwhile return on their investment, she needs to finish in the first three. To put all of this into context, let’s take a look at the prize money on offer for the 2025 renewal of the Epsom Oaks.
| Place |
Prize Money |
| Winner |
£325,033.36 |
| Second place |
£123,227.24 |
| Third place |
£61,670.94 |
| Fourth place |
£30,720.84 |
| Fifth place |
£15,417.74 |
| Sixth place |
£7,737.53 |
Can Elwateen justify the £30,000 supplement?
When you consider the ability Elwateen filly showed in the 1000 Guineas, and her proximity to the winner, Desert Flower, who is the current favourite for this race, this filly must have a great chance in the Oaks.
Reports suggest that Elwateen has been impressing connections with her work at home, and as a result, they were prepared to pay a £30,000 supplement for her to take her chance in this Classic.
With just two starts under her belt and a lack of exposure to date, there could be significant improvement to come from her. With just 2.25 lengths separating her and Desert Flower at Newmarket, maybe Elwateen can improve enough to reverse the form.
Elwateen must prove her stamina, as she goes up 4f in distance here, although the same can be said for others in this race. However, her connections feel she shapes as if she will get at least a mile and a quarter. Although the trip adds another 2f, they expect her to get the full 1m4f around Epsom; confidence that I share!
Given this filly must prove she can step forward again, and stay this much longer trip, I’m only playing half stakes here. However, I certainly think she’ll be in contention as they enter the final 2f, and the rest must be taken on faith.
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The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
by Racing Gav
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The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
