Key Points
- My betting tip has a fantastic record in this big race
- This horse is handicapped to strike again today
- He relishes fast conditions, so the ground is in his favour
Today’s betting tip comes in the big one, the Chester Cup! We have a 16-runner field that is 4/1 or bigger, and it’s a horse at a double-figure price that I’m drawn to here. There is nothing more satisfying than finding the winner of these big Handicaps, we managed it last year, so let’s hope we can repeat the feat this year too!
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Betting advice
- 15:05 Chester -
Zoffee
@11/1 (5 places) -
0.75pt each way
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As the old saying goes ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’. This seems to be the exact approach adopted by Hugo Palmer as Zoffee keeps on delivering in this race and Hugo Palmer keeps on sending him back for more. I think he is right to do this and hopefully he will be rewarded once again. Let’s take a look at my thoughts on this race.
Zoffee has a fantastic record in this big race
The Chester Cup is a pretty unique test. First and foremost, Chester is a quirky track. As a consequence certain horses become course specialists who thrive here. It is actually the oldest racing venue in England, with the first race taking place here as long ago as 1539. As well as handling the track, it takes a certain type of horse to be successful over the 2m 2.5f trip, as it takes a fair bit of stamina. The Chester Cup is quite an extraordinary race, where the runners must travel strongly around this very sharp track, but also need an abundance of stamina to get home.
Zoffee has run in the last two renewals of this prestigious race. Back in 2023, he was a neck second to Metier, on unsuitably soft ground. He did handle the ground pretty well, but I think he certainly would have preferred it faster. Conversely, the winner - Metier - absolutely thrives in testing conditions, so the race played right into his hands.
It’s also notable that Hugo Palmer commented that Zoffee wasn’t quite right in his coat, and his jockey reported he took a slight blow with 100 yards to go. Considering all of that, it was an exceptional performance. In 2024 they came back in the hope of going one better, and they managed to do exactly that. Zoffee landed the plum draw in Stall 1, the ground was in his favour, with it being Good to Firm, and he got the gaps when he needed them. With the exception of him racing a little too keenly, it all went absolutely perfectly for him. He comes back for a third attempt, and I believe he has an outstanding chance.
This horse is handicapped to strike again!
Zoffee’s second place in the 2023 renewal came off a mark of 93 and he produced a RPR of 104. Last year’s renewal saw him compete off a mark of 90 and he produced a RPR of 96. If you look back through his form, he also ran into a cracking sixth place in the Ascot Stakes off a mark of 95, a great third place in the Sky Bet Stayers’ Handicap at York off a mark of 92, and even managed a fourth in the Cesarewitch off a mark of 93.
All of this form proves that Zoffee is very competitive off a mark in the low-mid 90s. He returns this year off a mark of 91 and on that basis alone, he must be considered. However, what I find most interesting is that Hugo Palmer has booked 3lb Claimer Joe Leavy in to ride. That effectively brings Zoffee’s mark down from 91 to just 88. It also brings the weight he carries down from 8st 11lb to just 8st 8lb.
Off this mark, I think he is handicapped to strike again and at the very least, to finish in the places. At a price of 11/1, with five places on offer, even if Zoffee doesn’t get his nose in front at the line, we still have four more chances of achieving a small profit.
The ground has come up in his favour as he relishes quicker conditions
I think the key to winning this year’s renewal of the Chester Cup will be the ground. Many of the horses in this year’s lineup either need to prove themselves on better ground, or it is simply an inconvenience for them and they would actually prefer it softer. Zoffee however, is at his best on fast ground, and won last year’s renewal on Good to Firm. At the time of writing it is officially Good going, although watering is being applied.
Looking at the weather forecast, there is no rain predicted, and we’re looking at highs of 18 degrees with a light breeze throughout the day. Therefore, it is likely that any early morning watering will have dried back out by the time this race starts, and we should be looking at Good going, if not leaning towards Good to Firm.
While some will not enjoy these conditions, we know that Zoffee will, and that is a huge advantage. In a race like this, it can often come down to fine margins and getting your favoured ground could well be the difference between winning and losing on the day. Zoffee will certainly have no excuses in that regard.
Can Zoffee record back to back wins in the Chester Cup?
To date, nine horses have won the Chester Cup twice. including the likes of Rainbow High, Top Cees, Anak Pekan and Champion Hurdler, Sea Pigeon. I think Zoffee has an outstanding chance of making it 10. This race is the highlight of the season for Chester, with £170,000 in prize money of which £86,632 goes to the winner, so it’s worth planning your season around it. Hugo Palmer has done exactly that for the last two years, and he has been rewarded with Zoffee finishing second and first. They have stuck to the same game plan this time around and I think he can go close once again.
As always, this race requires a good chunk of luck in running, this being a very sharp track with a big 16-runner field. Half of the battle is being drawn well, as a poor draw can see your race over before it’s started. We have already ticked that box with a nice draw in Stall 4. At the age of nine, it’s unlikely that Zoffee is still improving, but with Joe Leavy’s claim, he effectively comes here off a 2lb lower mark. On that basis, a repeat of last year’s performance should see him involved at the finish. Given the nature of the race and his age, I am going to limit the stake to 0.75pt each way, but I feel he is well worth that at a price of 11/1 and is underestimated in the market.
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