Key Points
- Today’s in-form betting tip looks ready to strike at 4lb below his last winning mark
- His hold up tactics and being played late could suit this big field Handicap
- He ran an eye-catching race here last year over 1f shorter before winning next time
We have tons of racing action all this week, coming from Glorious Goodwood and Galway. So unless something extra-special catches my eye, I fully expect to be tipping for those two meetings. You won’t have to wait long for my first selection either, as he runs in the very first race at Goodwood today! This horse is priced at a very tasty 22/1 - what a way to start the week that would be!
As a rule, I produce four articles each week for betting.co.uk, but this week you will be spoiled, with
five
free betting tips
coming your way. Alongside today’s tip, you should check out my antepost selection for the Goodwood Cup, which also takes place today at 15:05.
And if antepost betting is something you’re keen on, I have an article live for the 2025 St Leger in September, plus some early picks for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and the 2026 Grand National, so be sure to check those out too.
Betting advice
- 13:20 Goodwood -
Sir Busker
@ 22/1 (5 places) -
0.5pt each way
William Hill - my bookie pick for Sir Busker!
At the time of writing, three or four different bookmakers are offering 22/1 with 5 places for Sir Busker. However, William Hill’s fantastic sign up offer makes them stand out from the crowd. If you
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Sir Busker can roll back the years and hit win number eight!
While he is the grand old age of nine now, Sir Busker still retains an awful lot of his ability, as his rating of 101 suggests. If anything, I think that rating of 101 might even underestimate him, and hopefully he can take advantage of that. In this article, I’ll break down why I think Sir Busker can win today.
Sir Busker looks ready to strike off 4lb below his last winning mark
Last time out, I thought Sir Busker would be ready to strike, and in fairness, he ran an absolute cracker to finish second at Sandown off a mark of 100. He came from the rear of the field, and passed them all except the winner, who also came from behind, but was just a tiny bit quicker, beating Sir Busker by a neck.
I thought they both ran remarkably well, so I was quite surprised to see the handicapper only raise them 2lb and 1lb respectively. Off just a 1lb higher mark, Sir Busker runs off 101, which is still 4lb less than his last win and I think this underestimates him.
Hold up tactics and being played late could suit Sir Busker in this big field Handicap
Sir Busker is regularly held up and delivered late in his races, which I think could be perfect for this big field of 18 runners, especially as there are a few that will want to go on, meaning he should get a good pace to aim at.
It’s a good thing he will want to drop in, as he’s drawn in stall 16, which somewhat makes up his mind for him. However, I would be far more concerned about that draw for a horse who would want to go forward than one that is happy to come from behind.
While logic suggests that a low draw would be better here, it is statistically better to be drawn high, judged on previous results. I also found some quite interesting facts when analysing the data for stall 16. Over this trip, for races with 17 to 19 runners on Good ground, the ‘expected’ win figure is 0.9. However, there have actually been three wins. Let’s hope Sir Busker can add to that data!
Sir Busker ran an eye-catching race here last year over 1f shorter before winning next time
Sir Busker does have a hit and miss record at Goodwood, with one win and two places from six runs. However, it is worth giving those statistics a little more context.
His first two runs here were over 6f in 2019, and 7f in 2020, where he finished second and first, respectively. His next two runs came in July and August 2020. The former saw him finish ninth, but he was repeatedly denied a clear run. The latter saw him finish second, running to form.
His latest two runs have been an eye-catching fourth, where he was staying on strongly from the rear. Next time he only managed an eighth place from nine runners, but that was in Listed company, which is beyond him nowadays.
As it happens, that fourth place really intrigues me. He was running over 1m 1f that day, and stayed on strongly. He then followed it up with a win at the Ebor Festival in York. This year he tackles the 1m 2f trip here at Goodwood, in Handicap company, and that could well be a winning formula.
Can Sir Busker cause an upset in the opening race of the meeting?
When you consider his current form and mark, Sir Busker has an excellent chance today. Then there's his previous course form, which is strong, or he has excuses. Take those things, along with the fact that hold up tactics should work like a dream here, and you’ll surely see why Sir Busker is so eye-catching at double-figure odds.
Personally, I think he can run a huge race here, and at a price of 22/1, he is definitely a bet for me, particularly so with five places on offer.
However, with all of that said, Sir Busker is a nine-year-old now. He will also require a certain amount of luck in running, coming from the back of the field. I also have a niggling doubt that he might use this race as a stepping stone for the Ebor meeting again, so as a result, it’s just half stakes for me today.
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14 hours ago
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
