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Ginger Joe - The 2024 Irish Derby - Runner By Runner Guide

Publish Date: 29/06/2024
Fact checked by: James Leeland
Key Points
  • A preview and betting tips for the 2024 Epsom Derby
  • My runner-by-runner guide and verdict for Sunday’s Group 1 spectacle
  • Aiden O’Brien is looking for his sixteenth winner here!

The 2024 Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby Derby (Group 1) 1m 4f - The Curragh, Sunday 30 June - 16:05

This Sunday at the Curragh we have the Irish Derby and as promised, I’ve prepared a runner-by-runner guide for you. Aidan O’Brien has won this race a record-breaking 15 times and he has four runners in this year's renewal. Generally speaking, O’Brien trains the favourite, but this year, it’s the James Fanshawe runner, Ambiente Friendly, who sits at the top of the market.

No surprise really, as he managed to finish second behind the awesome City Of Troy in the Epsom Derby at the beginning of the month, and that one won’t be a contender here. He isn’t the only class angle in the race though, as we have a fascinating lineup, and I am going to go through them all. At the end of my runner-by-runner guide, I will give you my 1-2-3 verdict and hopefully, we’re onto another winner.

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Ambiente Friendly @ 11/8

Ambiente Friendly undeniably has the best form on offer in this field after his runner-up effort behind City Of Troy in the Epsom Derby. And there is no doubt that he will be very difficult to beat if he turns up in similar form. I’m not saying he got a bad ride there because he didn’t, but as soon as Rab Havlin let City Of Troy get past him that day, there was only going to be one winner. That form sets a very high standard and gives Ambiente Friendly a mark 118, which is 5lb clear of his rivals. He travels well, he will appreciate this ground, and it will take a very smart horse to beat him.

Euphoric @ 25/1

Euphoric is an interesting runner here but may fall a little bit short in terms of raw ability. He was only a length behind stablemate Los Angeles over 1m 2f, but was easily put his place in the Epsom Derby over this trip, which leaves him with a lot to do here. He is a strong traveller and could still be on the upgrade after just four career starts, but he will need to improve plenty to feature here.

Grosvenor Square @ 9/1

Grosvenor Square was favourite for the Chester Vase last time out, but could only manage third place on his first attempt over the trip. That may have felt disappointing at the time, but it was his first start of the season and he looks well worth another crack. He was well supported that day and it’s far too soon to write him off at this stage. He surely holds each way claims if he can build on that performance.

Keeper’s Heart @ 66/1

Keeper’s Heart is a nice horse in his own right and did well to finish fourth behind Portland last time out. He travels quite well, but I have reservations about him staying this distance, and up in class, he has it all to do here. I doubt he will disgrace himself, but he is a fair way behind his rivals here on ratings.

Los Angeles @ 13/8

Los Angeles is the main danger to the favourite, Ambiente Friendly. He was third in the Epsom Derby and could easily improve again for the experience. He is a very straightforward son of Camelot who has already shown his class when beating Euphoric at Leopardstown last month and I think he will be really well suited to the track here. Prior to the Derby he sweated up quite badly whilst going to post and was reluctant to go in the stalls, but despite all of that, he travelled really nicely during the race before emptying the tank in the final furlong. If he settles better this time, which is quite likely, then it would be no surprise to see him close the gap on Ambiente Friendly here and he must be taken very seriously.

Matsuri @ 13/2

Matsuri is an interesting one. This will be just his fourth career start and he was deeply impressive last time out at Leicester, winning by eight lengths at a canter. He was keen in the early stages and was forced to race wide for the majority of the time, but he cruised into the lead before powering clear up the home straight. It’s hard to grasp his level of ability but I don’t think he’s shown it all just yet and could be anything. He should stay the trip no problem and he clearly has a lot of class, so it would be very dangerous to write him off.

Sunway @ 20/1

Sunway looks out of his depth here and would need to find some progression out of nowhere to feature. He was seventh in the French Derby, but that form isn’t working out too well. In addition, although he has plenty of stamina, he’s a soft ground specialist and this fast ground won’t suit him at all. I’d give him each way claims at best.

The Euphrates @ 50/1

The Euphrates runs over this trip for the second time, but will need to find a lot of improvement to contest here. This son of Frankel showed plenty of form as a two-year-old, but a year on, he seems to be going in the wrong direction. He was beaten by nearly 10 lengths in the King Edward Stakes at Royal Ascot and that leaves him with an awful lot to find with the market leaders. Not one with much chance here.

The GJ Verdict

The Irish Derby is a race I’m looking forward to. Grosvenor Square is likely to build on his run in the Chester Vase and it would be no surprise to see him go well, but he still has a lot to find with the market leaders in my eyes. His stablemate, Los Angeles, is sure to be well supported as Ballydoyle’s number one contender, but his tendency to get a bit coltish pre-race is a concern.

So the winner here for me is Ambiente Friendly who is a seriously smart colt and sets a clear standard in this field on rating alone. He bolted up in the Lingfield Derby Trial, beating Illinois, who has since franked the form at Royal Ascot. He is a strong traveller who does very little wrong and his rivals would need to improve a fair whack to get past him.

My 1-2-3 prediction for the Irish Derby

  1. Ambiente Friendly
  2. Los Angeles
  3. Grosvenor Square

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