Key Points
- Let’s add some fun to Saturday with a Lucky 15 bet
- Tune in for the ITV Racing action to watch these four horses run
- My four best picks for this week run at Newmarket and Haydock
We’re switching it up today and moving forwards! Along with my usual
Saturday betting tip, I’m also going to be covering the ITV Racing for Betting.co.uk. To spice this up and to make it more fun for the more casual, or weekend punters, I’m going to do a multiple each Saturday and today I have a Lucky 15 for you!
If you’re new to my articles, I’m RacingGav and I am the resident horse racing tipster here at Betting.co.uk. I produce five articles a week on this site and these include a mixture of daily tips, antepost tips, guides, big race trends, and now, some fun betting opportunities based on the ITV Racing action each Saturday!
If the antepost tips element caught your interest, be sure to check out my previous articles here. I have already put out antepost tips for the
Cesarewitch Handicap, King George VI Chase, Cheltenham Festival and Aintree Grand National!
Betting advice - An each way Lucky 15
- 13:50 Newmarket -
Humidity
@ 9/1 (3 places)
- 14:05 Haydock -
Vintage Clarets
@ 7/1 (3 places)
- 15:15 Haydock -
Tilted Kilt
@ 7/1 (3 places)
- 15:40 Newmarket -
Erzindjan
@ 25/1 (6 places)
The best value for your Lucky 15 is at bet365!
The prices of 9/1, 7/1, 7/1 and 25/1 at bet365 are the best available for today's Lucky 15. In addition to that, bet365 are offering strong each way terms with 3 places for the first three races, and 6 for the fourth. If you don’t already have an account with bet365, be sure to capitalise on their fantastic sign up offer. If you
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Four value picks from today’s ITV Racing action!
I always look for value for my betting tips and I’m often found betting nearer the bottom of the market than the top. So, when putting together
a Lucky 15 to complement the ITV Racing
action at Newmarket and Haydock today, I decided to go for an each way option with some tasty prices. Next I’ll show you the horses I came up with, and why I chose them.
Humidity @ 9/1 - this horse should relish the step up in trip in the 7f Royal Lodge
Humidity was a Royal Ascot winner for the Discord members when he battled on gamely to win the Chesham Stakes (Listed) over 7f. Just over a month later, connections sent him to Goodwood over 7f in the Vintage Stakes (Group 2) and he seemed to absolutely hate the track, so I’d draw a line through that. Switched back to the stiffer Sandown track for the Solario Stakes (Group 3) last month, he ran a cracker gaining third place in a blanket finish. Following an enquiry, he was subsequently promoted to second, having suffered interference. With a clear run, he may well have won, but they were never going to take the race off the winner, as he did nothing wrong.
I’ve always thought that Humidity shapes like a miler, and he finally gets it here. The step up in trip is also backed by his pedigree, as was sired by Ulysses who won the Coral-Eclipse and Juddmonte International over 1m 2f and 1m 2.5f respectively. I think Humidity sets the standard here anyway, and with further improvement expected today, I think he is wildly overpriced at 9/1. Yes, his rivals are less exposed, but they are also less proven.
Vintage Clarets @ 7/1 - off an unchanged mark and with juice in the ground, he’s dangerous
Vintage Clarets has had a busy campaign, and after a couple of poor runs early on in his campaign, he has run consistently and strongly. His peak effort was winning at Ascot’s Shergar Cup meeting, on what was unsuitably fast ground, and that really impressed me. He couldn’t match that performance on his two subsequent starts at York, but switched to the AW at Southwell last time, he arguably ran as well as his Ascot win, coming in half a length behind Azure Angel.
I tipped Azure Angel to my Discord members that day, and she won at 18/1, so I like that form. Overall though, I think Vintage Clarets is better on Turf and enjoys juice in the ground, something he’s not really had all season. He has shown he’s in great form, he can be competitive off his unchanged mark of 96, and he should enjoy these conditions, I think Vintage Clarets is a lovely pick at 7/1.
Tilted Kilt @ 7/1 - has run two huge races over C&D already, can he win today?
I tipped Tilted Kilt last time out over this C&D, and it was an excruciating watch. He was repeatedly denied a clear run, then ran on strongly only to be denied narrowly at the line. For me, it is indisputable that if he’d had a clear run, he would have won that day. That was a Class 4 Handicap, and this race is a step up to Class 2. However, he was second in the Class 2 Silver Bowl earlier in the season, which is also over this C&D.
Point being, he has already proven that he is capable of competing at Class 2 level off low weights. Those two runs came off marks of 84 and 82, and he races off 82 again today, so his handicap mark is absolutely fine. Both races were run on Good ground, but if anything, I think he might actually enjoy the bit of juice that’s in the ground at Haydock. Over this C&D and carrying just 8st 5lb, I think he has a far better chance than his 7/1 price tag suggests, and he’s well worth including in our Lucky 15.
Erzindjan @ 25/1 - huge eye-catcher two starts back, and overpriced in the 1m 1f Cambridgeshire
Erzindjan was a huge eye-catcher in the John Smith’s Cup two runs back. That race marked his return from an absence and he was ridden to stay the trip. He did exactly that, powering home to finish fourth, and doing his best work late on. Given he was sent off at 80/1, he was clearly expected to improve for the run, which bodes well considering how strongly he performed. I hoped he would build on that at the Ebor Festival over the same distance, and although he didn’t, he ran a very respectable race in defeat.
It is worth mentioning that two key elements went against him. Firstly, it pays to race prominently in that race, but he was held up in midfield. Secondly, he was denied a clear run from 2f out. He drops back from 1m 2.5f to 1m 1f here, but considering it is a 24-strong field, he should have a hell of a pace to aim at this time, and the stiff Newmarket finish should see him powering home. I think he is underestimated here at 25/1 and he makes a lovely final leg for today’s Lucky 15.
Can these runners all hit the frame or even better?
For an each way Lucky 15 like this one, you are looking for horses that have a decent chance of at least running into the places. With the way a Lucky 15 bet is structured, multiple places, especially at value prices, can still produce a decent return. Obviously, if these horses were all to go out and win, it’s a whole different story in terms of the potential returns.
Realistically, I think all four of these horses have a superb chance of being placed, and there is plenty of value in their prices too. While they are all theoretically capable of winning today, it’s far from a given. But whatever happens, our Lucky 15 selections should give us plenty of fun today as we watch them in action.
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