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Ginger Joe - The 2024 July Festival at Newmarket - Betting Tips for Day 2

Ginger Joe

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Expert Punter

Publish Date: 10/07/2024

Fact checked by: James Leeland

Key Points

My NAP of the day comes in the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes
I’m taking on the short-priced favourite in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes
Handicap sponsors Bet365 with a superb new customer offer!

We move on to Day 2 of the Newmarket July Festival

For Day 2 at Newmarket we have an exciting lineup of races to get into. I originally planned to bring you a Lucky 15 with four selections, but one of my picks is now a non-runner, leaving us with just three. But despite this slight disappointment, we still have a solid chance of making a profit with my selections for Friday.

My NAP bet of the day comes in the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes for the fillies. I believe my selection is a class above her rivals here, and looks all set to go really well in this contest. I also have a pick in the opening race, a classy Handicap, where the conditions should suit my selection perfectly. My final pick is in the highlight race of the day, the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes. While Porta Fortuna is the short-priced favourite, I want to back a horse that looks slightly better-suited to the expected soft conditions, which I think gives her the edge this time around. Whatever happens, it’s going to be a fascinating day of racing, and I can’t wait for the off.

Bet365 with a big free bet offer for Friday

As sponsors of the opener on Day 2, Bet365 continue with their generous new customer offer. If you bet £10, you’ll get £30 in free bets. Free bets ready for Saturday - who can resist?

13:50 Newmarket - Bet365 Handicap 1m 2f - Travolta @ 7/1

The Day 2 opener is the Bet365 Handicap over 1m 2f. The Godolphin team has a strong presence here, with two contenders - the current favourite Royal Power, and Endless Victory. Both have strong credentials, but Royal Power appears to be the more likely winner of the two. Although he gives weight to the field, his form from his only start of the season at Goodwood is pretty strong, and the drop back in trip should suit him well too. Last time out, he was left short of room for most of the race, but made strong headway once he got in the clear, only getting caught in the final few yards.

However, the one I’m siding with is James Ferguson’s Travolta. He is on a steep upward curve and I think he will handle these soft conditions better than most. He was a maiden as a two-year-old, but looks a much more improved sort now he is three. He took to the step up in trip very well when winning last time out, and he is a strong traveller. We tend to see him at his best later on in his races and his usual hold up tactics should work well for this contest. Plus, with the soft conditions due, he should be able to take full advantage of his finishing pace. I think he is overpriced with the credentials he has, making him a really solid bet here.

14:25 - Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) 6f - Heavens Gate @ 10/3 (NAP)

My second selection for Friday comes in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes. There is one filly in here that makes fair each way claims at a double-figure price and that is the George Boughey-trained Bountiful. Since gaining a fifth place on her debut this one has really excelled, and won from the front at Carlisle last time out, and that looked to be another big step in the right direction. This is a marked step up in class for her, but it’s highly unlikely we have seen the best of her yet and she could easily outrun her 10/1 price tag if she handles these softer conditions.

But I think the one to beat in this race is my NAP selection, Heavens Gate, who runs for the Ballydoyle team. On paper, she has the best form, having finished just over a length behind Fairy Godmother in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. I very much doubt that the other fillies in this race could have matched that performance. The expected soft conditions this week shouldn't be any problem for her either. Her pedigree suggests she has enough stamina to handle what will feel like a longer distance than 6 furlongs - another point in her favour. Tactics won’t be an issue for Heavens Gate either, she can be held up, or set the pace, and either way, she should prove really tough to get past at the finish.

15:35 - Falmouth Stakes (Group 1) 1m - A Lilac Rolla @ 9/2

Next up we have the Falmouth Stakes, a Group 1 for fillies and mares, which looks set to be a fantastic contest. There is no doubt about it that Guineas runner up and Coronation Stakes winner Porta Fortuna is the best horse in the race, but her form of late all comes on a fast surface. The softer conditions here are a bit of an unknown to her, and makes me question whether she will be as effective on this surface. She did win on debut on heavy ground, but it was an ordinary contest and her class was probably enough to get the job done.

It’s always dangerous to take on the favourite in a race like this, but In these conditions I think it’s worth siding with A Lilac Rolla, who runs for Paddy Twomey. She finished second to Fallen Angel, this year’s Irish 1000 Guineas winner, and has shown consistent improvement with every run to date. She handled the heavy ground well at Leopardstown on her penultimate start, where she beat Kitty Rose, showing plenty of grit in the closing stages. Her ability to perform well on this surface is a major advantage here. Even though A Lilac Rolla may need to improve slightly again, I think she’ll be will be tough to beat and she gets my vote.