Key Points
- Today’s betting tip was eye-catching at York last time
- This horse has proven form in the Bunbury Cup
- His shrewd trainer has him handicapped to strike
Royal Ascot 2026 brought us five days of fantastic racing, but like all good things, it has come to an end. However, rather than my first selection this week being standard mid-week action, I have looked ahead to the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket next month! I think my 14/1 selection is overpriced, as he has an outstanding chance in the race. I certainly see him going off at a shorter price than he is right now.
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Betting advice
- Saturday 11 July 2026 - Newmarket - Bunbury Cup -
Aalto
@ 14/1 (4 places) -
1pt each way
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Aalto can regain his Bunbury Cup crown!
Aalto has previous form in this race, including a win, and his trainer has worked hard to make sure he is handicapped to strike again.
Aalto was eye-catching at York last time
Back in May, Aalto ran a very solid race to finish ninth in the Victoria Cup. That doesn’t sound much, but it’s a very competitive 28-runner race, and he was only beaten 4.75 lengths at the line. It was also his seasonal reappearance, so that’s about as pleasing as you could hope for.
While I felt he was fully capable of winning his next race at York, I didn’t tip him because I wasn’t sure if he would be trying. The Bunbury Cup was an obvious target for him at that stage, so York was likely a preparation run which would potentially be used to bring his mark down. However, he was sent off at 6/1 with Ryan Moore booked to ride. As it transpired, he was slowly away and repeatedly denied a clear run. He finished 14th and his mark was dropped by 2lb.
The reason I say the Bunbury Cup is an obvious target for Aalto is because he has shown great form in the race previously. He won the race in great style in 2024, coming in two lengths ahead of the rest under Rossa Ryan. Last year, he returned to defend his crown. He burst clear of the field, and it looked like history would repeat itself.
However, he didn’t go clear alone, More Thunder went with him, and collared him at the line to win by a nose. More Thunder went on to frank the form by winning the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes next time out, before holding his own in Group 1 company with form figures of 422. His latest race was the Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot, where he came second, denied half a length by Ten Bob Tony who went off at 50/1.
Aalto is handicapped to strike for shrewd trainer Ian Williams
If you look back at the last two renewals of the Bunbury Cup, Aalto won off a mark of 88 in 2024, and came second off 92 last year. He was unlucky to bump into a subsequent Group 1 horse in More Thunder last year, and would have won otherwise, as he finished almost three lengths clear of the rest.
This year, Aalto is heading to the Bunbury Cup off a mark of just 85, 3lb lower than his win two years ago, and half a stone lower than when narrowly denied by More Thunder last year. He has an entry at Newmarket this Thursday, but it’s looking increasingly likely that the meeting will be called off due to the weather. But even if he does run, he will handle the quick turnaround for the Bunbury Cup, and even a win wouldn’t concern me, as he’s handicapped well enough to win both.
Can Aalto reclaim the Bunbury Cup?
I certainly think he can. His reappearance run in the Victoria Cup was pleasing enough in the circumstances. However, he really caught my attention at York last time, where he was unable to land a blow with the way the race played out. He has excellent form in the Bunbury Cup, and off a mark of 85, he’s handicapped to strike again.
In terms of negatives, Aalto is sometimes a walking hard luck story, as we saw last time out. Which goes some way to explaining why a horse of his calibre has only secured three wins from 24 career starts. However, there is no doubt that when he gets a clear run, he shows some serious ability.
When you take account of the pros and the cons, he looks fantastic value at 14/1, and I think he is worth a strong 1pt each way bet. I’m tempted to have more, as the race won’t be run until 11 July, we’ve got plenty of time to top up again nearer the time.
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