
I have decided on another antepost betting tip today, and this one runs in the Coral Challenge, which is a 1m Handicap. The race takes place on Saturday, which is Coral Eclipse day at Sandown.
If youāre just discovering my content here for the first time, Iām Gav and Iām better known as RacingGav, the resident horse racing expert here at Betting.co.uk. My main focus is free horse racing tips, both daily and antepost, but youāll also see that I put up a Lucky 15 based on the ITV Racing every Saturday.
In terms of antepost selections, I assume youāre a fan if youāre reading this article. If thatās the case, be sure to check out my antepost selection for the Bunbury Cup which takes place on 11 July at Newmarket!
As I write this article, No Retreat is widely available at 25/1. However, some bookmakers have gone as short as 20/1. On the other hand, Unibet are feeling generous and offering 33/1, the best horse racing odds available, and four places! Also, if you sign up at Unibet andĀ bet Ā£20, youāll get Ā£40 in free bets. Definitely worth doing to catch No Retreat at a huge price.
Iām quite frankly shocked that Unibet are offering odds of 33/1 for No Retreat to win the Coral Challenge. The price feels far too big, and in the rest of this article, Iāll explain why.
Sadly, Royal Ascot was rather tainted by the huge draw bias towards the stand side of the straight track, which clearly favoured high draws. The Royal Hunt Cup was one of the races affected, in that the first six horses home were drawn in stalls 33, 23, 8, 32, 22 and 24, respectively.
As a result, No Retreat was up against it from the start, as he was drawn in stall 7. That said, he was cruising through the race superbly well when he was badly hampered 2f out. That saw him drop to the rear of the field and meant Billy Loughnane needed to make adjustments before he could start riding again. No Retreat responded by passing several horses, but was never able to gain enough ground to get involved at the finish.
Iād draw a line straight through that run as No Retreat is far better than he was able to show that day. If anything, that run served to increase my regard for him, in terms of how he responded after the incident.
No Retreat has five entries during July, as well as an early entry for Goodwood at the end of August. Given that George Scott has booked Oisin Murphy to ride in this race, but hasnāt been booked for any other potential engagements, I can only assume that all being well, No Retreat will run here.
Oisin is an exceptionally talented jockey. He is 3/10 (30%) for George Scott this year, with 8/10 (80%) of those finishing in the first four. To £1 level stakes, he has produced a profit of £6.13. If we widen the criteria to all time, Oisin is 9/43 (21%) with 28/43 (65%) in the first four and a £1 level stake profit of +£15.21. In addition, George Scott only books Oisin Murphy for his most-fancied runners, and Oisin always manages to get the best out of the ones he rides.
No Retreat is obviously a very talented horse, which is why he is rated 107, so he is destined to carry a big weight, which will be determined after final declarations are made. For context, if Liberty Lane is declared to run, which you would expect him to be as Ryan Moore is booked to ride, he will carry 9st 12lb and No Retreat will carry 9st 9lb. However, if Liberty Lane doesn't run, No Retreat will carry more.
In these big-field Handicaps, itās never easy to carry a big weight and give weight to the rest of the field. But No Retreat may have the class to do it. He is only a five-year-old, with 14 career starts, of which only seven have been in the UK. There is every chance we havenāt reached the bottom of him yet, and he could easily be a Group horse in a Handicap here. Conversely, thereās always the chance of him bumping into one or two that are better handicapped and equally talented.
If he runs, I think No Retreat has a superb chance. As already explained, Oisin has a great record for George Scott and he is exceptionally talented, so itās certainly a fantastic jockey booking. Despite what happened at Royal Ascot, we know that No Retreat is race fit, and has plenty of class.
In terms of negatives, we are betting antepost here, so if No Retreat doesnāt run for any reason, we lose our money. Thereās also a possibility you might get better place terms on the day, but Iām happy enough with four places and ¼ odds. My only real concern is the weight he will carry.
With more positives than negatives, I think No Retreat is worth backing at 33/1. However, at this stage, Iām only advising half stakes. If he is declared, we can always top up, but I doubt he will stay at the same price.
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