Key Points
- Today’s betting tip has a fantastic record over C&D
- He went close in last year’s renewal despite suffering issues
- He looks well handicapped judged on his form in the book
We have a total of nine racecards to get stuck into this Saturday but my betting tip comes from one of the two Premier Racedays - Ascot. I have also picked the most competitive race of them all on the card, which is the 18-runner Victoria Cup! While it is an incredibly difficult puzzle to solve, it would be both personally rewarding, and a very worthy bet, if I can pull it off - and I think I have found one that fits the bill.
If you’re new to my betting.co.uk articles, I write four per week. These are predominantly betting tips for the day’s action, but I do produce other types of content too, such as big race trends and antepost selections. Speaking of the latter, I have already put out antepost selections for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and the 2026 Grand National, so if you haven’t already checked them out, make sure you do. This article is my last for the week but I will be back next week with more! If you want more betting tips in the interim, check out the section for my Discord at the bottom of this article.
Betting advice
- 14:40 Ascot -
Hickory
@ 20/1 (5 places) -
0.5pt each way
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Hickory can make an instant impact for Jamie Osbourne
Hickory is overdue a win in one of these big Handicaps, and it would be ironic if he won today, on his very first start for Jamie Osborne, after failing to land one throughout his whole career for James Fanshawe. Moving to a new stable is always a risk, as you never know what impact it will have on the horse, but it can give them a new lease of life and bring the best out of them.
Hickory has a fantastic C&D record and he deserves a win today
This horse has a superb record over this 7f trip at Ascot, which reads as follows: -
- 29 July 2023 - second of 25 - Beaten half a length - Off 87, producing a RPR of 96
- 9 September 2023 - third of 14 - Beaten 2 lengths - Off 89, producing a RPR of 95
- 7 October 2023 - twelfth of 17 - Beaten 6 lengths - Off 89, producing a RPR of 82
- 11 May 2024 - fourth of 21 - Beaten 1.75 lengths - Off 89, producing a RPR of 93
- 27 July 2024 - seventh of 18 - Beaten 2 lengths - Off 88, producing a RPR of 93
As you can see, he has had five runs, and all bar one has been very strong. Hickory’s only poor run came in October, right at the end of his season, so it’s easy to write that one off, and after all, any horse can have an off day. His two C&D runs since October prove it was just an anomaly, as he bounced straight back to his previous performance level. Excluding that one poor run, he’s never been beaten by more than two lengths over this C&D and only finished out of the first four places once.
He went close in last year’s renewal and with a smoother run, he has a massive chance
The run highlighted in bold text in the bullet points is last year’s renewal of the Victoria Cup, where Hickory did not get off to the best start. He ducked right at the start of the race, then raced too keenly. He didn’t get a clear run either, and to top it off, he was struck in the nose by a rival’s whip 1f out. Despite all of that, he got through, and ran on well to finish fourth. Considering how much went wrong, I think that is a remarkable effort which deserves a huge amount of credit.
What is also worth noting about last year’s renewal is the draw. With one exception, every horse that finished in the first 12 were drawn in stalls between 11 and 23 i.e. middle to high draws. The exception was Hickory himself, who finished in fourth from Stall 6. So in addition to everything else, he also had to overcome a clear bias that favoured those drawn nearer the stand side rails. Yet another reason to be marking that run up.
When you consider how much went against him last year, you would surely agree that he has an exceptional chance in this year’s renewal, if he returns in the same form and has a little more luck on his side. And that’s before we even get onto his handicap mark, which I’ll cover in the next section.
Hickory looks handicapped to win judging from his form to date. As you saw in an earlier section, he has exceptional form over this C&D, and all of his runs came off marks of 87-89 and today he runs off just 85. In four of those five runs, he produced RPRs between 93 and 96. If he repeats that level of form here, he would have circa 8 to 11lb in hand off his current mark.
His strong form isn’t just limited to this C&D though, with a total of nine of his runs seeing him produce RPRs in the 90s. Those runs have been across a variety of tracks including Southwell, Wolverhampton, Redcar and Kempton. His peak RPR came at the latter track and that was a RPR of 97 in April last year!
What I also find particularly interesting is that Hickory comes here fresh after a break since October. He returned at Kempton last season off a 179 day break and that is where he produced his career best RPR. Judging from that, first time out could be the time to catch him, as he clearly performs very well when fresh.
Can Hickory finally land a big Handicap?
All facts considered, I think Hickory has an exceptional chance in the Victoria Cup and certainly a better one than his price of 20/1 suggests. He has numerous examples of strong course and distance form, and he also has strong form elsewhere, all of which shows him being ahead of his current mark. We also know how much misfortune he suffered in last year’s renewal, yet still went very close, so with a smoother run this time around, he must have an outstanding chance.
I also like his draw in Stall 11, which will be around the middle of the field. and should give Saffie Osborne plenty of options. As well as a more favourable draw, he runs in this year’s renewal off bottom weight. with just 8st 4lb on his back. Whilst there are an abundance of positives, you do have to view the full picture. He is winless since December 2022, he has changed ownership and yard since his last run, and he must also prove his fitness first time out. For those reasons, I’m limiting the bet to just half stakes this time. However, at 20/1, I do feel he is underestimated and well worth a shot.
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