Ginger Joe - Betting Tips for Saturday 11 May 2024

A big day of racing with three fantastic meetings

Welcome back everyone, after a breathtaking week of racing at Chester, we’ve got an action-packed Saturday to look forward to. I’m starting off with a look at the two Classic Trials at Lingfield, which are set to reveal the UK’s hottest three-year-olds and I can’t wait to see who is shaping up the best.

We’ve also got the 17-runner Victoria Cup coming up, which is always worthy of your attention as it can be quite revealing in terms of what might happen at Royal Ascot next month. Then last, but by no means least, we’ve got the Swinton Handicap Hurdle over at Haydock, which looks all set to be an exceptionally competitive renewal this year.

There are plenty of options if you’re thinking of having a punt on today’s picks. I’ll be backing them as Win singles, but they'll work just as well for each way cross-doubles, a fourfold accumulator, or my own favourite, a Lucky 15. Whichever way you decide to go, here’s to beating the bookies on Saturday!

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Classic Trials day at Lingfield

Saturday’s highlights include the Oaks and Derby Trials coming from Lingfield. Here we’ll see this season's elite three-year-olds put their Classic credentials on the line and we have pretty strong fields entered for both races too.

14:25 Lingfield - The William Hill Oaks Trial 1m 3½f - Danielle @ 5/4

We start off with the Oaks Trial, where John Gosden’s Danielle heads the betting after a runaway win at Wetherby two weeks ago. Although that was over 1m 2f, the step up in trip looks well within her range based on her last performance and she’s certain to get competitive amongst these fillies. On paper, the form of her latest run seems hardly anything to shout about, but she did it with style and clearly has a fair level of ability, so it’s not at all surprising to see her so well supported here.

Molten Rock is an interesting contender for Karl Burke and she is highly likely to improve on her second start of the season. She had her first run of the season over in Longchamp last month, where she finished nine lengths back in fourth place, but that was in a pretty decent Group 3. I can see her coming on after that run, provided she takes to the fast ground. Ballydoyle’s Rubies And Red is far from the finished article, and her form has been a bit of a let down recently, but she is open to improvement for top connections and could well be there or thereabouts at the finish.

Treasure is a lovely filly for Ralph Beckett and Royal connections. She won on her only start back in October, which was over the mile at Nottingham on some pretty heavy ground, so she really is a bit of an unknown quantity. It’s hard to weigh up her form, but her trainer is on a bit of a roll at the moment, so it would be dangerous to write her off.

Despite there being plenty here with chances I think Danielle is set to win this. She oozes class and looks like she is going to have no problem stepping up to this sort of trip. I am very excited to see her run this weekend.

15:00 Lingfield - William Hill Derby Trial 1m 3½f - Illinois @ 9/4

Roger Varian’s Defiance is a very flashy colt and the step up in trip here looks likely to suit this boy. He ran over 1m 2f last time out at Epsom, where he placed second, but stayed on really nicely. Although I’m not surprised to see the support for him, I do question whether he is ready to race at this level.

Karl Burke is double-handed here with Arabic Legend and Imperial Sovereign, who both look like nice types but again, I don’t know if they have the scope or talent to be competitive in this field.

I see this race being between Aidan O’Brien’s two runners, The Euphrates and Illinois. The Euphrates did finish ahead of Illinois last time out at Leopardstown, but the fact that Ryan Moore has opted to ride Illinois here suggests he is the better of the two. Personally, I think he would act better on a softer surface, but that said, he looks like he has the most class and has a rating 5lb higher than his rivals, so I’ll give Illinois the nod here..

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Two more ‘must-watch’ races

Over at Ascot, we have the Victoria Cup, where I have a strong fancy that is dropping down in class to contest here and I expect a big run from him. Then over at Haydock we have the deeply competitive Swinton Hurdle where we have a very well-supported Irish raider heading the market. He is clearly well-handicapped and has already tasted success with a Handicap win at the Cheltenham Festival.

14:40 Ascot - The Victoria Cup 7f - Mostabshir @ 13/2

The 17-runner Victoria Cup is always a fantastic race to watch and this year it’s wide open. There is very little to choose between the top nine or ten in the market and there are some fascinating contenders. But my stance is that course form is always a good thing at Ascot. Both Jumby and Pearl D’Or have won here and on the form of those runs both have solid chances

The one I fancy the most though is Mostabshir, for John Gosden and Jim Crowley, who is dropping down in class for his second run of the season. He made an encouraging seasonal debut on the all-weather at Kempton, and he would hardly need to improve to win off his current mark. That said, we have a deep field so things would need to go his way and he’ll need to stay clear of traffic problems, but in my opinion Mostabshir is a tough nut to crack and at 13/2, represents some serious value.

15:15 Haydock - Swinton Handicap Hurdle 2m - Lark In The Morning @ 7/4

In the Swinton Hurdle we have a deeply competitive field and there are plenty in here with place chances. There are two 20/1 outsiders in the field that I feel are worth a look and Aurigny Mill, for Victor Dartnall, is the first of them. Aurigny Mill ran a fine race at Chepstow 10 days ago on fast ground and he ticks a fair few boxes here. Plus, Victor Dartnall is known to be a good target trainer, making Aurigny Mill rather interesting.

The one I could pick up some place money is Jonjo O’Neill's mare, All The Glory, who absolutely hosed up at Newbury last time out. She had the race run to suit and powered away in a deep field, which was pretty impressive for her first start since Christmas time. Those two definitely represent good value at 20/1, but of course, you’ll need to take them as you find them on the day.

However, the standout runner in the lineup is this year’s Boodles Handicap winner. Yes, Lark In The Morning takes his place here and he looks obviously well-treated too. Connections have been very vocal about this gelding needing faster ground and if that is the case, even a small improvement on his Boodles form would mean he has a stone in hand here. Although the handicapper put him up 8lb for that win, he gets a 4lb allowance here, on conditions to suit, so barring incidents or accidents, I can’t see him losing.

Betting tips for Saturday

Classic Trials

14:25 Lingfield - Danielle @ 5/4
15:00 Lingfield - Illinois @ 9/4

Worth a watch

14:40 Ascot - Mostabshir @ 13/2
15:15 Haydock - Lark In The Morning @ 7/4

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