Key Points
- Today’s betting tip is progressive and comes here seeking a Hurdles hat-trick
- She is proven over C&D and will definitely enjoy the Good going at Chepstow
- This mare’s trainer targets this meeting, she’s been prepped on the Flat, and primed for this
A slightly frustrating day yesterday where I picked out the winner of the Mares’ race but let her go based on her price. I then targeted the Veterans’ Chase and the Persian War. Unfortunately, Lord Accord’s race was ruined by Torn And Frayed taking him on for the lead. In the end, the race was won by my second choice, Hang In There, at an SP of 6/1. Meanwhile, Torn And Frayed and Lord Accord were pushed to third and fourth respectively, both out of the places. In the Persian War, Jack Hyde sweated up in the preliminaries, raced too keenly, hit the front too soon, and faded into fifth place. Not much more to say about that performance. On the bright side, my second choice Kainsbourg ran a cracker to finish second at an SP of 20/1.
But for now, onwards and upwards as we move onto the second day of the Welsh Racing Festival, where I have focused on the feature race, the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle over 2m 3.5f, for today’s article.
If you’re just coming across my content for the first time, I’m RacingGav, the resident horse racing expert here at Betting.co.uk as my name suggests! I produce four to five articles here, which are mostly betting tips, but sometimes I’ll throw big race trends and educational guides into the mix. And if you enjoy the long game of antepost betting, make sure you check out my tips for the
King George VI Chase on New Year’s Eve, the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (2026 Cheltenham Festival) and the 2026 Grand National. I fully expect all of these selections to shorten the closer we get to the races, so it’s best to get on as soon as possible.
Betting advice
- 15:20 Chepstow -
Greyval
@ 16/1 (5 places) -
0.5pt each way
William Hill has unbeatable value for Greyval!
At the time of writing, most bookmakers are offering 14/1 with 5 places on Greyval. However, William Hill stands out from the crowd with 16/1 for the same amount of places. That value alone makes it worth siding with William Hill. Better yet, there’s a great sign up offer for new customers. If you
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Greyval is on an upward curve
I feel Greyval is overpriced at 16/1, but I’m under no illusion that she needs to improve again to feature at the finish of this race. However, I think there is every chance she can do exactly that, and in this article, I’ll explain why.
Greyval is progressive and comes here seeking a hat-trick over Hurdles
Greyval started her career on the Flat in France, but after joining Fergal O’Brien’s stable, she was trained to go jumping, and she hit the ground running as a Juvenile. She came second to Arclight on debut, before reversing the form with that one to win Listed honours at Doncaster. She then went on to win a further Juvenile Hurdle over at Huntingdon on her next start.
She was then thrown into a Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree, which shows just how much her connections thought of her, although she came up short there. I think a combination of her opening handicap mark, and the rapid switch to Open company (against older and more experienced horses) saw her struggle and lose her way in the 2023/24 season.
It looked like history was repeating itself during 2024/25, but she really came alive in the second half of the season. She was a good second at Fakenham, before failing to stay 3m at Ascot next time out. She then dropped back to 2m 3.5f at Chepstow (today's C&D) and won well, despite fluffing the second last. Up 4lb, she went in again at Cheltenham’s April meeting to end her season with back to back wins.
The subsequent rise from 114 in March to 118 in April, and now to 125 looks pretty harsh considering she only won by half a length at Cheltenham. That said, it was a competitive series final worth £50,000, so a horse will always be treated more harshly for winning that standard of race. Speaking of that Cheltenham race, it was a similar story to now, she needed to take a step forward to win and she did. Therefore, I’m hoping she can do the same again today and land the hat-trick over Hurdles!
Greyval is proven over C&D and will definitely enjoy the Good going at Chepstow
As touched upon in the previous section, Greyval is proven over C&D, as she won here at Chepstow in March. Likewise, she loves faster ground, so she should really enjoy these dry early season conditions. I don’t feel she will have any excuses in terms of the track, trip or going, so if she gets beaten, it’s most likely because she has genuinely just come up short on the day.
I also believe this track plays to her strengths. While she originally raced on the Flat, she doesn’t appear to have an instant change of gear. She tends to take a little stoking up, yet her tenacious nature sees her continuously finding more and more when under pressure. Therefore, a big galloping track with a long home straight like Chepstow fulfils her needs. That’s why it was no surprise to see her win at other galloping tracks like Doncaster and on Cheltenham’s New Course. On the flip side, I think she found everything happened too quickly for her at Fakenham, which is a very sharp track, and did well to finish second.
Looking at Greyval’s racing style, this race should be run to suit, as she stays this trip strongly, and benefits from a strong gallop. Hopefully, that’s exactly what will happen here, assuming that Idy Wood and Josh The Boss go forward. I would also expect French Ship, West To The Bridge, and Sign Again to be thereabouts on the front end too. Greyval had to race prominently here and ended up taking it up quite far out both here and at Cheltenham in order to ensure it was a proper test. Whereas in this better race, with a big field and a strong pace to aim at, I think it could bring out the best in her.
Greyval’s trainer targets this meeting, she’s had a prep run on the Flat, and she’s primed for this
I mentioned in my Persian War article yesterday, and during the Final Flight Podcast on Thursday evening, that this is Fergal O’Brien’s time of year. Whilst he is not a small and insignificant trainer by any stretch, he doesn’t have the quality horses that the top trainers in the UK and Ireland have in their care. For that reason alone, it makes sense for him to make hay while the sun shines earlier in the season, before the weather turns, and the classy winter horses come out to play.
We are already seeing that come to fruition, as his last seven runners have produced four winners and a second place, which is an excellent strike rate. That also includes Frontier Prince winning the opening race of the Welsh Racing Festival at Chepstow, getting Fergal on the board for the meeting. As mentioned earlier, it didn’t go to plan for his only other runner - Jack Hyde, who had plenty go wrong for him.
While many of these will be coming here for the first run of their season and subsequently with question marks over their fitness levels, Greyval has shrewdly been given a prep run on the Flat at Newbury last month. As a result, we know that she’s going to be fit as a fiddle here and that can give her an advantage over some of her rivals. As well as the fitness side, there are intentions to question as well. For some of these, this will be a stepping stone to other races but I can well imagine this has been a long term target/plan for Greyval since her Cheltenham win in April.
Can Greyval land the hat-trick over hurdles?
As I’m sure you’re used to me saying by now, you need to look at every angle before you decide to place a bet. We have plenty of positives here for Greyval, as she’s a C&D winner, she will enjoy the fast ground, she’s fit, she has a lovely weight of 10st 7lb, and she’s progressing nicely over Hurdles now.
On the negative side, I only have one concern, and that is whether she is up to this level of race. She may be fit, she may be ready but is she good enough? Ultimately it’s a gamble, and we’ll only know after the race. However, she found improvement from Chepstow to Cheltenham, so hopefully she can find a similar level of progress here. The fact she’s only a six-year-old is certainly in her favour, and she has every right to still be improving at her age.
We then move onto the price. If she was towards the top of the market, I’d likely let her go, as she does need to find improvement to win today. However, I’m more than happy with a price of 16/1. I think it’s fantastic each way value, especially as there are five places on offer for this race. There are currently 17 lining up as I write this, meaning she would need to beat 12 to place. However, I’m convinced that a few of these will need the run or won’t be trying their best here, which lessens the task in front of her. That said, she does need a career best to get her nose in front today, so I’m limiting this bet to half stakes to reflect that.
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